Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 10.42 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 208.6, usage worth 10.4.
23 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 246.5 |
| ESPN | 170.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 214.4 |
| FFA | 254 |
| Goes around | Round 18, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR170 |
| Bye week | 10 |
| ADP standard deviation | 53.7 picks |
Our board has him at 91.3 points, 5.6 per game — 35.3 catches, 392 yards, 2.8 TDs. That is WR6, 236 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 4.4 points per game to a ceiling of 9.6, with the median at 5.6. Boom rate 72%, bust rate 22%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 208.6 on consensus and our board has him 236. We rank him 27.4 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Denver Broncos returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Bo Nix at quarterback, Sean Payton as head coach, Davis Webb calling it. The offense projects to 35 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.4 rushes.
In: Jaylen Waddle (wr1), Lil'Jordan Humphrey (wr6), Dane Key (wr7), Jonah Coleman (rb3).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 10.9%, with a bear case of 9.8% and a bull case of 12% and a full range of 8.9% to 13.6%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Courtland Sutton | 19.7% |
| Troy Franklin ← | 10.9% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 9.8% |
| RJ Harvey | 9% |
| Evan Engram | 8.3% |
| Pat Bryant | 7.6% |
What the offense looks like: The Jaylen Waddle trade is probably bad for Waddle & Suttons value. It is likely worse for Sutton than Waddle though. The RB room is also nearly impossible to predict. What we do know: if a RB is featured on this offense they are a weekly RB1, but JK Dobbins, Harvey, and now Coleman will be difficult to trust when all three are healthy. WR 3 - WR 6 on Denver all are promising young WR and could be potential trade targets for WR needy teams early in 2026.
Key additions: A key add is Broncos QB coach Davis Webb was promoted to OC & will handle play calling in 2026. Webb was a potential head coach candidate & Denver maintains a great weapon on their coaching staff. Broncos traded 1st round pick for WR Jaylen Waddle from dolphins. He will likely function as teams WR1. Broncos also drafted RB Jonah Coleman in the 4th round from washington & TE Justin Joly in the 5th round.
Key departures: No key departures on offense
Notes: Bo Nix will be 100% healthy by camp following foot injury in NFL playoffs. Broncos traded their 2026 1st round pick for Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle. This will significantly reduce Sutton's role as the alpha in the offense. Pat Bryant & Troy Franklin will likely have trade interest but if they stay on the team will have reduced roles. Broncos backfield is incredibly difficult to project & will need to be monitored all summer. Denver extended JK Dobbins & Drafted Jonah Coleman in the 5th round. Dobbins expected to be 1A and Harvey 1B, with Coleman as reserve, but Sean Payton as HC can do whatever he wants. Broncos drafted TE Justin Joly in the 5th round who has a small chance to be relevant because Evan Engram is legit trash
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Bo Nix returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (36 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 35 att/g; New OC Davis Webb — pass rate and tempo may shift.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~23, prior share 15.5%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 12.8%, p25-p75 [10.2%, 15.3%], tails [8.1%, 19.1%]. Closest comps: Michael Gallup 2022→2023 (DAL: 17.1%→10.4%); Quentin Johnston 2024→2025 (LAC: 17.0%→20.0%); Kalif Raymond 2021→2022 (DET: 14.0%→12.9%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
self-anchored 45% to own 15.5% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 12.8%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: DEN rates 22.9 against a league average of 23, 0.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.6 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -4.8 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +0.8 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -9.2 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +17% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 2023 | 10.3 | 72% | -0.4% |
| Gabe Davis | 2022 | 11.4 | 66% | +8.1% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2024 | 6.5 | 65% | +0.3% |
| Josh Downs | 2023 | 9.2 | 65% | +25.9% |
| Gabe Davis | 2021 | 8.4 | 65% | -4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 1 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 4, pick 102 by DEN |
| College | Oregon |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 176 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.41s |
| Vertical | 39″ |
| Broad jump | 124″ |
| 3-cone | 6.9s |
| Shuttle | 4.31s |
| Career PPR per game | 7.6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.8 |
| Boom rate | 14.8% |
| Bust rate | 25.9% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.58 |
His best game was Week 8 against DAL — 26.9 PPR on 8 targets and a 29.6% target share, in a game that finished 44-24. His worst was Week 18 against LAC at 0, on 1 targets, final score 19-3. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 13 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10; in the 4 decided by more, 11.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 10.4 points per game. He scored 10.42, 0.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 20-12 | 8.4 | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 16.2% | 59% |
| 2 | IND | 28-29 | 24 | 8 | 9 | 89 | 1 | 30% | 83% |
| 3 | LAC | 20-23 | 2.8 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 17.4% | 79% |
| 4 | CIN | 28-3 | 9.5 | 4 | 8 | 55 | 0 | 19% | 58% |
| 5 | PHI | 21-17 | 8.5 | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 13.9% | 59% |
| 6 | NYJ | 13-11 | 3.1 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 15.4% | 58% |
| 7 | NYG | 33-32 | 12.9 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 20.4% | 62% |
| 8 | DAL | 44-24 | 26.9 | 6 | 8 | 89 | 2 | 29.6% | 63% |
| 9 | HOU | 18-15 | 8.3 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 29.4% | 79% |
| 10 | LV | 10-7 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 40 | 1 | 33.3% | 74% |
| 11 | KC | 22-19 | 12.4 | 4 | 8 | 84 | 0 | 22.2% | 66% |
| 13 | WAS | 27-26 | 4.1 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 7% | 53% |
| 14 | LV | 24-17 | 4.1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 11.1% | 26% |
| 15 | GB | 34-26 | 20.8 | 6 | 6 | 85 | 1 | 18.8% | 50% |
| 16 | JAX | 20-34 | 10.6 | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 10.9% | 64% |
| 17 | KC | 20-13 | 5.7 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 10.8% | 38% |
| 18 | LAC | 19-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.3% | 42% |
| Receptions | 65 |
| Targets | 104 |
| Receiving yards | 709 |
| Carries | 5 |
| Rushing yards | 12 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 10.42 |
| Yards per target | 6.82 |
| Catch rate | 62.5% |
| Yards per carry | 2.4 |
| Snap share | 59.59% |
| Target share | 18.22% |
| Air-yards share | 28.01% |
| WOPR | 0.469 |
| RACR | 0.755 |
| Average depth of target | 12.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.6 |
| Total YAC | 282 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 85.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.58 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.1 |
| Red-zone targets | 18 |
| Red-zone target share | 20% |
| End-zone target share | 22.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.68 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.68 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 35 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 40 of 44 |
| Target share | 39 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 32 of 44 |
The offense threw it 613 times. He took 18.12% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton | 21.6% |
| Troy Franklin ← | 18.12% |
| Evan Engram | 13.24% |
| RJ Harvey | 10.1% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 8.89% |
| Pat Bryant | 8.54% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 20.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.2 in those and 10.01 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 6 against LAC — 11.6 PPR on 3 targets and a 9.4% target share, in a game that finished 16-23. His worst was Week 2 against PIT at 0, on 1 targets, final score 6-13. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.5; in the 10 decided by more, 4.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.8 points per game. He scored 4.19, 18.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PIT | 6-13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 20% |
| 3 | TB | 26-7 | 3.1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 14.7% | 25% |
| 4 | NYJ | 10-9 | 1.8 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 16% | 31% |
| 5 | LV | 34-18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 7.7% | 17% |
| 6 | LAC | 16-23 | 11.6 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 | 9.4% | 65% |
| 7 | NO | 33-10 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 24% | 51% |
| 8 | CAR | 28-14 | 1.9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5.3% | 37% |
| 9 | BAL | 10-41 | 2.9 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 12.1% | 40% |
| 10 | KC | 14-16 | 1.9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 10.7% | 34% |
| 11 | ATL | 38-6 | 9.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 6.3% | 44% |
| 12 | LV | 29-19 | 5.1 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 10.3% | 40% |
| 13 | CLE | 41-32 | 4.8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 16.1% | 41% |
| 15 | IND | 31-13 | 2.9 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 15.6% | 46% |
| 16 | LAC | 27-34 | 4.5 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 7.7% | 41% |
| 17 | CIN | 24-30 | 0.9 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 6.5% | 33% |
| 18 | KC | 38-0 | 3.2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6.9% | 35% |
| Receptions | 28 |
| Targets | 53 |
| Receiving yards | 263 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 8 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 4.19 |
| Yards per target | 4.96 |
| Catch rate | 52.83% |
| Yards per carry | 4 |
| Snap share | 37.5% |
| Target share | 10.77% |
| Air-yards share | 18.24% |
| WOPR | 0.288 |
| RACR | 0.303 |
| Average depth of target | 13 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Total YAC | 163 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 71.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.15 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.8% |
| End-zone target share | 6.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.64 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.36 |
The offense threw it 569 times. He took 9.85% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton | 25.09% |
| Javonte Williams | 13.01% |
| Devaughn Vele | 10.22% |
| Troy Franklin ← | 9.85% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 9.67% |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 8.36% |
6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 47.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.27 in those and 3.45 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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