Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.75 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 200.9, usage worth 6.
23 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 231 |
| ESPN | 170.8 |
| UNDERDOG | 185.5 |
| FFA | 182 |
| Goes around | Round 17, pick 9 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR159 |
| ADP standard deviation | 42.6 picks |
Our board has him at 122.7 points, 7.5 per game — 45.8 catches, 559 yards, 3.5 TDs. That is WR6, 178 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 5.7 points per game to a ceiling of 12.1, with the median at 7.5. Boom rate 62%, bust rate 24%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 200.9 on consensus and our board has him 178. We rank him 22.9 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Denver Broncos returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Bo Nix at quarterback, Sean Payton as head coach, Davis Webb calling it. The offense projects to 35 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.4 rushes.
In: Jaylen Waddle (wr1), Lil'Jordan Humphrey (wr6), Dane Key (wr7), Jonah Coleman (rb3).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 7.6%, with a bear case of 6.9% and a bull case of 8.9% and a full range of 6.6% to 10.2%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Courtland Sutton | 19.7% |
| Troy Franklin | 10.9% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 9.8% |
| RJ Harvey | 9% |
| Evan Engram | 8.3% |
| Pat Bryant ← | 7.6% |
What the offense looks like: The Jaylen Waddle trade is probably bad for Waddle & Suttons value. It is likely worse for Sutton than Waddle though. The RB room is also nearly impossible to predict. What we do know: if a RB is featured on this offense they are a weekly RB1, but JK Dobbins, Harvey, and now Coleman will be difficult to trust when all three are healthy. WR 3 - WR 6 on Denver all are promising young WR and could be potential trade targets for WR needy teams early in 2026.
Key additions: A key add is Broncos QB coach Davis Webb was promoted to OC & will handle play calling in 2026. Webb was a potential head coach candidate & Denver maintains a great weapon on their coaching staff. Broncos traded 1st round pick for WR Jaylen Waddle from dolphins. He will likely function as teams WR1. Broncos also drafted RB Jonah Coleman in the 4th round from washington & TE Justin Joly in the 5th round.
Key departures: No key departures on offense
Notes: Bo Nix will be 100% healthy by camp following foot injury in NFL playoffs. Broncos traded their 2026 1st round pick for Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle. This will significantly reduce Sutton's role as the alpha in the offense. Pat Bryant & Troy Franklin will likely have trade interest but if they stay on the team will have reduced roles. Broncos backfield is incredibly difficult to project & will need to be monitored all summer. Denver extended JK Dobbins & Drafted Jonah Coleman in the 5th round. Dobbins expected to be 1A and Harvey 1B, with Coleman as reserve, but Sean Payton as HC can do whatever he wants. Broncos drafted TE Justin Joly in the 5th round who has a small chance to be relevant because Evan Engram is legit trash
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Bo Nix returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (36 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 35 att/g; New OC Davis Webb — pass rate and tempo may shift.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~22, prior share 11.0%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 9.2%, p25-p75 [8.0%, 11.5%], tails [7.4%, 13.9%]. Closest comps: Jauan Jennings 2022→2023 (SF: 11.6%→10.6%); JuJu Smith-Schuster 2024→2025 (KC: 10.5%→9.2%); Marvin Mims Jr. 2023→2024 (DEN: 7.7%→10.6%).
self-anchored 30% to own 11.0% role (1yr), 70% to comp median 9.2%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: DEN rates 22.9 against a league average of 23, 0.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.6 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -4.8 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +0.8 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -9.2 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | +6.2 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -15% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Hyatt | 2023 | 4.6 | 87% | -23.4% |
| Nico Collins | 2021 | 6 | 74% | +19.6% |
| Cedric Tillman | 2023 | 4 | 69% | +69.9% |
| Dyami Brown | 2021 | 2.8 | 68% | -15.6% |
| Alec Pierce | 2022 | 7 | 68% | -5.2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 3, pick 74 by DEN |
| College | Illinois |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 204 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.61s |
| Vertical | 37.5″ |
| Broad jump | 124″ |
His best game was Week 11 against KC — 13.2 PPR on 6 targets and a 16.7% target share, in a game that finished 22-19. His worst was Week 5 against PHI at 0, on 0 targets, final score 21-17. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.2; in the 4 decided by more, 7.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6 points per game. He scored 5.75, 9.1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.98 expected, a gap of -2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | IND | 28-29 | 3.8 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 10% | 24% |
| 4 | CIN | 28-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.4% | 33% |
| 5 | PHI | 21-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 54% |
| 6 | NYJ | 13-11 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 7.7% | 58% |
| 7 | NYG | 33-32 | 1.6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8.2% | 51% |
| 8 | DAL | 44-24 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 40 | 1 | 14.8% | 56% |
| 9 | HOU | 18-15 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8.8% | 57% |
| 10 | LV | 10-7 | 5.3 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 0 | 7.4% | 49% |
| 11 | KC | 22-19 | 13.2 | 5 | 6 | 82 | 0 | 16.7% | 56% |
| 13 | WAS | 27-26 | 7.2 | 3 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 16.3% | 70% |
| 14 | LV | 24-17 | 7.2 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 11.1% | 47% |
| 16 | JAX | 20-34 | 9.2 | 5 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 17.4% | 64% |
| 18 | LAC | 19-3 | 7.1 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 21.7% | 66% |
| Receptions | 31 |
| Targets | 49 |
| Receiving yards | 378 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 5.75 |
| Yards per target | 7.71 |
| Catch rate | 63.27% |
| Snap share | 52.69% |
| Target share | 10.96% |
| Air-yards share | 16.2% |
| WOPR | 0.278 |
| RACR | 1.053 |
| Average depth of target | 8.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.5 |
| Total YAC | 147 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 68.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.09 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.9% |
| End-zone target share | 3.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.98 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.98 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.14 |
The offense threw it 613 times. He took 8.54% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton | 21.6% |
| Troy Franklin | 18.12% |
| Evan Engram | 13.24% |
| RJ Harvey | 10.1% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 8.89% |
| Pat Bryant ← | 8.54% |
2 of his 13 games were blowouts, 16% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6 in those and 5.17 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Pat Bryant →