Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 6.33 points per game in 2025, usage worth 6.5.
Our board has him at 81.6 points, 5 per game — 28.5 catches, 337 yards, 2 TDs. That is WR6, 254 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 1.9 points per game to a ceiling of 11.2, with the median at 5. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 63%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
Denver Broncos returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Bo Nix at quarterback, Sean Payton as head coach, Davis Webb calling it. The offense projects to 35 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.4 rushes.
In: Jaylen Waddle (wr1), Lil'Jordan Humphrey (wr6), Dane Key (wr7), Jonah Coleman (rb3).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 6.8%, with a bear case of 5.6% and a bull case of 8% and a full range of 5% to 9.7%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Courtland Sutton | 19.7% |
| Troy Franklin | 10.9% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 9.8% |
| RJ Harvey | 9% |
| Evan Engram | 8.3% |
| Pat Bryant | 7.6% |
What the offense looks like: The Jaylen Waddle trade is probably bad for Waddle & Suttons value. It is likely worse for Sutton than Waddle though. The RB room is also nearly impossible to predict. What we do know: if a RB is featured on this offense they are a weekly RB1, but JK Dobbins, Harvey, and now Coleman will be difficult to trust when all three are healthy. WR 3 - WR 6 on Denver all are promising young WR and could be potential trade targets for WR needy teams early in 2026.
Key additions: A key add is Broncos QB coach Davis Webb was promoted to OC & will handle play calling in 2026. Webb was a potential head coach candidate & Denver maintains a great weapon on their coaching staff. Broncos traded 1st round pick for WR Jaylen Waddle from dolphins. He will likely function as teams WR1. Broncos also drafted RB Jonah Coleman in the 4th round from washington & TE Justin Joly in the 5th round.
Key departures: No key departures on offense
Notes: Bo Nix will be 100% healthy by camp following foot injury in NFL playoffs. Broncos traded their 2026 1st round pick for Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle. This will significantly reduce Sutton's role as the alpha in the offense. Pat Bryant & Troy Franklin will likely have trade interest but if they stay on the team will have reduced roles. Broncos backfield is incredibly difficult to project & will need to be monitored all summer. Denver extended JK Dobbins & Drafted Jonah Coleman in the 5th round. Dobbins expected to be 1A and Harvey 1B, with Coleman as reserve, but Sean Payton as HC can do whatever he wants. Broncos drafted TE Justin Joly in the 5th round who has a small chance to be relevant because Evan Engram is legit trash
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Bo Nix returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (36 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 35 att/g; New OC Davis Webb — pass rate and tempo may shift.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~?, prior share 10.8%, team change, OC change. Distribution: median 7.3%, p25-p75 [4.7%, 9.8%], tails [3.3%, 13.6%]. Closest comps: DeAndre Carter 2022→2023 (LAC→LV: 10.0%→3.6%); Dyami Brown 2024→2025 (WAS→JAX: 10.5%→10.9%); Mecole Hardman 2023→2024 (NYJ→KC: 10.6%→7.0%).
arrival self-anchored 41% to own 10.8% role (3yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: DEN rates 22.9 against a league average of 23, 0.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.6 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -4.8 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +0.8 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -9.2 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | Troy Franklin | +1.4 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Duvernay | 2022 | 8.3 | 65% | -32.3% |
| Mecole Hardman | 2022 | 11.7 | 59% | -32.5% |
| K.J. Hamler | 2022 | 4.3 | 57% | -18.4% |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2022 | 5.6 | 57% | -27.7% |
| Chase Claypool | 2022 | 7 | 57% | -55.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 5 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 2, pick 63 by DEN |
| College | Oklahoma |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 183 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.38s |
| Vertical | 39.5″ |
| Broad jump | 129″ |
| 3-cone | 6.9s |
| Career PPR per game | 6.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1.1 |
| Boom rate | 15.4% |
| Bust rate | 28.2% |
| Games missed per season | 0.7 |
| Injury history | Concussion |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.08 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 4 against CIN — 20.5 PPR on 6 targets and a 14.3% target share, in a game that finished 28-3. His worst was Week 11 against KC at 0.2, on 0 targets, final score 22-19. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.8; in the 4 decided by more, 7.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.5 points per game. He scored 6.33, 15.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 20-12 | 4.2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.8% | — |
| 2 | IND | 28-29 | 10.4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6.7% | — |
| 3 | LAC | 20-23 | 1.4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.4% | — |
| 4 | CIN | 28-3 | 20.5 | 6 | 6 | 69 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 14.3% | — |
| 5 | PHI | 21-17 | 3.9 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 13.9% | — |
| 6 | NYJ | 13-11 | 4.8 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11.5% | — |
| 7 | NYG | 33-32 | 15.8 | 6 | 7 | 85 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 14.3% | — |
| 8 | DAL | 44-24 | 1.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 3.7% | — |
| 11 | KC | 22-19 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 13 | WAS | 27-26 | 3.7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4.7% | — |
| 14 | LV | 24-17 | 7.7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2.8% | — |
| 15 | GB | 34-26 | 7.7 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 18.8% | — |
| 16 | JAX | 20-34 | 5.9 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6.5% | — |
| 17 | KC | 20-13 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.8% | — |
| 18 | LAC | 19-3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13% | — |
| Receptions | 37 |
| Targets | 51 |
| Receiving yards | 322 |
| Carries | 12 |
| Rushing yards | 78 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 6.33 |
| Yards per target | 6.31 |
| Catch rate | 72.55% |
| Yards per carry | 6.5 |
| Target share | 9.95% |
| Air-yards share | 9.7% |
| WOPR | 0.218 |
| RACR | 0.972 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.23 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.34 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 3.3% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.59 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.59 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.09 |
The offense threw it 613 times. He took 8.89% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton | 21.6% |
| Troy Franklin | 18.12% |
| Evan Engram | 13.24% |
| RJ Harvey | 10.1% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. ← | 8.89% |
| Pat Bryant | 8.54% |
2 of his 15 games were blowouts, 23.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.15 in those and 5.8 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 17 against CIN — 30.2 PPR on 8 targets and a 25.8% target share, in a game that finished 24-30. His worst was Week 6 against LAC at 0, on 3 targets, final score 16-23. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7; in the 10 decided by more, 8.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.8 points per game. He scored 7.62, 33.9% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 20-26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4% | — |
| 2 | PIT | 6-13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.1% | — |
| 3 | TB | 26-7 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9% | — |
| 4 | NYJ | 10-9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 5 | LV | 34-18 | 3.4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3.8% | — |
| 6 | LAC | 16-23 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.4% | — |
| 7 | NO | 33-10 | 3.8 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12% | — |
| 8 | CAR | 28-14 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.3% | — |
| 9 | BAL | 10-41 | 1.4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.1% | — |
| 10 | KC | 14-16 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 14.3% | — |
| 11 | ATL | 38-6 | 13.3 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 6.3% | — |
| 12 | LV | 29-19 | 7.2 | 3 | 5 | 44 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 12.8% | — |
| 13 | CLE | 41-32 | 19.9 | 3 | 4 | 105 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 12.9% | — |
| 15 | IND | 31-13 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12.5% | — |
| 16 | LAC | 27-34 | 9.5 | 3 | 5 | 62 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 12.8% | — |
| 17 | CIN | 24-30 | 30.2 | 8 | 8 | 103 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 25.8% | — |
| 18 | KC | 38-0 | 22.1 | 5 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17.2% | — |
| Receptions | 39 |
| Targets | 52 |
| Receiving yards | 503 |
| Carries | 13 |
| Rushing yards | 42 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 7.62 |
| Yards per target | 9.67 |
| Catch rate | 75% |
| Yards per carry | 3.23 |
| Target share | 9.56% |
| Air-yards share | 8.79% |
| WOPR | 0.206 |
| RACR | 0.989 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.32 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.15 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.4 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.6 |
The offense threw it 569 times. He took 9.67% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton | 25.09% |
| Javonte Williams | 13.01% |
| Devaughn Vele | 10.22% |
| Troy Franklin | 9.85% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. ← | 9.67% |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 8.36% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 37.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.08 in those and 6.96 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against WAS — 20.3 PPR on 2 targets and a 7.4% target share, in a game that finished 33-35. His worst was Week 7 against GB at -1.1, on 1 targets, final score 19-17. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.4; in the 8 decided by more, 3.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 3.8 points per game. He scored 4.67, 31.7% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 16-17 | 2.9 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6.3% | — |
| 2 | WAS | 33-35 | 20.3 | 2 | 2 | 113 | 1 | 7.4% | — |
| 3 | MIA | 20-70 | 16.6 | 3 | 5 | 73 | 0 | 13.9% | — |
| 4 | CHI | 31-28 | 6.7 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 | 7.7% | — |
| 5 | NYJ | 21-31 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3.7% | — |
| 6 | KC | 8-19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | — |
| 7 | GB | 19-17 | -1.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.2% | — |
| 8 | KC | 24-9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.6% | — |
| 10 | BUF | 24-22 | -0.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.4% | — |
| 11 | MIN | 21-20 | 3.2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9.4% | — |
| 12 | CLE | 29-12 | 5.5 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 14.3% | — |
| 13 | HOU | 17-22 | 2.3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8.3% | — |
| 14 | LAC | 24-7 | 3.1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10% | — |
| 15 | DET | 17-42 | 1.1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.3% | — |
| 16 | NE | 23-26 | 9.3 | 3 | 4 | 63 | 0 | 11.4% | — |
| 18 | LV | 14-27 | 2.7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3.1% | — |
| Receptions | 22 |
| Targets | 33 |
| Receiving yards | 377 |
| Carries | 9 |
| Rushing yards | 30 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 4.67 |
| Yards per target | 11.42 |
| Catch rate | 66.67% |
| Yards per carry | 3.33 |
| Target share | 7.19% |
| Air-yards share | 11.09% |
| WOPR | 0.186 |
| RACR | 1.038 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.56 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.4% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.28 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.28 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.1 |
The offense threw it 513 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Courtland Sutton | 18.99% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 18.35% |
| Javonte Williams | 12.24% |
| Samaje Perine | 11.81% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 7.59% |
| Adam Trautman | 7.38% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15 | 32 | 4.8 | 11.28 | 7.46% |
| Jarrett Stidham | 1 | 1 | 2.7 | 16 | 3.1% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 35.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.58 in those and 5.41 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Marvin Mims Jr. →