Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 4.6 points per game in 2025, usage worth 5.
27 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class
Our board has him at 44.6 points, 2.9 per game — 19.5 catches, 161 yards, 1.5 TDs. That is TE5, 304 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2 points per game to a ceiling of 5.9, with the median at 2.9. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 32%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
Detroit Lions returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Jared Goff at quarterback, Dan Campbell as head coach, Drew Petzing calling it. The offense projects to 33.9 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.2 rushes.
In: Kendrick Law (wr4), Greg Dortch (wr5), Jackson Meeks (wr7), Isiah Pacheco (rb2). Out: Khalif Raymond (wr3), David Montgomery (rb2), Craig Reynolds (rb3).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 2%, with a bear case of 0.8% and a bull case of 3%.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Amon-Ra St Brown | 25.8% |
| Jameson Williams | 15.9% |
| Sam LaPorta | 15.2% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 13.2% |
| Kendrick Law | 7% |
| Greg Dortch | 5.7% |
Key additions: Lions have a new OC in Drew Petzing (coming over from Arizona after the entire coaching staff was let go). Petzing is an interesting hire & did not have success in Arizona. But no doubt this offense can succeed at a high rate under him. Drafted WR Kendrick Law in the 5th round. Signed RB Isiah Pacheco from Chiefs in free agency. Signed C Cade Mays from panthers to 3 year deal. Traded for additional O line man Juice Scruggs in David Montgomery trade. Added TE Tyler Conklin behind TE Sam LaPorta
Key departures: WR Kalif Raymond left to join Ben Johnson with the Bears. Lost T Taylor Decker & G Graham Glasgow. RB David Montgomery was also traded to the Texans.
Notes: Gibbs + Williams + ARSB all dynasty assets. David Montgomery was traded to the Houston Texans & opens the opportunity for Gibbs to be completely featured in this offense. If he can stay healthy, he may be the RB1 in fantasy for years to come. Lions brought in Isiah Pacheco as RB2 from the Chiefs on a 1 year deal. He is not expected to play very much, but could be relevant with Gibbs injury. Khalif Raymond heads to Chicago Bears & Kendrick Law COULD emerge as a solid WR4 or WR3 in the long run. Isaac TeSlaa holds significant value if St Brown or Williams were injured. Williams & St Brown are both excellent assets. Goff remains a interesting aging QB that is a low end QB1 in fantasy with a VERY high weekly ceiling but no mobility upside. A key potential bit to keep an eye on is the status of Sam LaPorta follwing his season ending back injury in 2025. He needs to get back to 100% and prove it before we completely trust him. Tough injury for a TE or any football player.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jared Goff returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.1 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.9 att/g; New OC Drew Petzing — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Depth/practice piece (holdover_no_qualifying_multi_year_sample) — slot prior 3.0% baseline.
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: DET rates 26.2 against a league average of 23, 3.2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.6 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -5.6 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +2.9 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -2.7 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | Ross Dwelley | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 3 | Sam LaPorta | +-2.2 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +78.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster Moreau | 2023 | 3.6 | 75% | +61.9% |
| Ian Thomas | 2022 | 3.1 | 72% | +12.7% |
| Will Dissly | 2022 | 5.8 | 71% | -30.2% |
| Durham Smythe | 2023 | 5.5 | 67% | -46.6% |
| Noah Gray | 2023 | 4.4 | 67% | +53.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 257 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.62s |
| Vertical | 31.5″ |
| Broad jump | 118″ |
| 3-cone | 7.27s |
| Shuttle | 4.25s |
| Career PPR per game | 4 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1.1 |
| Boom rate | 14.3% |
| Bust rate | 40% |
| Games missed per season | 1 |
| Injury history | Hip, Neck |
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 2 against CHI — 11.8 PPR on 3 targets and a 10.7% target share, in a game that finished 52-21. His worst was Week 10 against WAS at 0, on 1 targets, final score 44-22. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.6; in the 5 decided by more, 5.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5 points per game. He scored 4.6, 7.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 0.8 expected, a gap of 1.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CHI | 52-21 | 11.8 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 10.7% | 53% |
| 4 | CLE | 34-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 40% |
| 5 | CIN | 37-24 | 8.9 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 13% | 73% |
| 7 | TB | 24-9 | 5.3 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 10.7% | 54% |
| 9 | MIN | 24-27 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.8% | 55% |
| 10 | WAS | 44-22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.1% | 39% |
| 11 | PHI | 9-16 | 2.8 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 19.4% | 83% |
| 12 | NYG | 34-27 | 5.9 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 10.5% | 88% |
| Receptions | 14 |
| Targets | 22 |
| Receiving yards | 108 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 4.6 |
| Yards per target | 4.91 |
| Catch rate | 63.64% |
| Snap share | 60.63% |
| Target share | 8.77% |
| Air-yards share | 1.34% |
| WOPR | 0.142 |
| RACR | 2.851 |
| Average depth of target | 1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1.6 |
| Total YAC | 86 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 86.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.24 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.2% |
| End-zone target share | 3.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.8 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.2 |
The offense threw it 582 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 31.27% |
| Jameson Williams | 18.55% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 17.09% |
| Sam LaPorta | 8.91% |
| Kalif Raymond | 5.45% |
| David Montgomery | 5.27% |
3 of his 8 games were blowouts, 32.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.93 in those and 3.6 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 8 against TEN — 7.8 PPR on 1 targets and a 5.6% target share, in a game that finished 52-14. His worst was Week 18 against MIN at 0, on 0 targets, final score 31-9. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.7; in the 7 decided by more, 3.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 2.8 points per game. He scored 3.18, 23.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 26-20 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3.6% | 49% |
| 3 | ARI | 20-13 | 7.4 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 22.7% | 69% |
| 4 | SEA | 42-29 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 10.5% | 55% |
| 6 | DAL | 47-9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.7% | 50% |
| 8 | TEN | 52-14 | 7.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 5.6% | 42% |
| 9 | GB | 24-14 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5% | 60% |
| 11 | JAX | 52-6 | 7.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3.2% | 82% |
| 12 | IND | 24-6 | 4.4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 6.1% | 47% |
| 13 | CHI | 23-20 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3.2% | 43% |
| 14 | GB | 34-31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.5% | 61% |
| 18 | MIN | 31-9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 41% |
| Receptions | 13 |
| Targets | 16 |
| Receiving yards | 100 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 3.18 |
| Yards per target | 6.25 |
| Catch rate | 81.25% |
| Snap share | 54.45% |
| Target share | 6.01% |
| Air-yards share | 3.82% |
| WOPR | 0.116 |
| RACR | 1.204 |
| Average depth of target | 5.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1.9 |
| Total YAC | 75 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 106.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.28 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.9% |
| End-zone target share | 3.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.56 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.44 |
The offense threw it 550 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 27.17% |
| Jameson Williams | 17.53% |
| Sam LaPorta | 15.99% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12.14% |
| Tim Patrick | 8.48% |
| David Montgomery | 7.32% |
5 of his 11 games were blowouts, 56.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.94 in those and 2.72 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 10 against LAC — 10.3 PPR on 3 targets and a 9.4% target share, in a game that finished 41-38. His worst was Week 11 against CHI at 0, on 0 targets, final score 31-26. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.5; in the 4 decided by more, 2.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 2.9 points per game. He scored 3.12, 23.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 21-20 | 3.7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6.3% | 39% |
| 5 | CAR | 42-24 | 4.6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 11.1% | 62% |
| 6 | TB | 20-6 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2.4% | 61% |
| 8 | LV | 26-14 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2.9% | 53% |
| 10 | LAC | 41-38 | 10.3 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 9.4% | 52% |
| 11 | CHI | 31-26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 39% |
| 12 | GB | 22-29 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2.4% | 33% |
| 13 | NO | 33-28 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | 40% |
| 14 | CHI | 13-28 | 2.6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5.9% | 37% |
| Receptions | 13 |
| Targets | 14 |
| Receiving yards | 91 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 3.12 |
| Yards per target | 6.5 |
| Catch rate | 92.86% |
| Snap share | 46.22% |
| Target share | 4.93% |
| Air-yards share | 2.03% |
| WOPR | 0.088 |
| RACR | 1.417 |
| Average depth of target | 2.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.2 |
| Total YAC | 49 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 117.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.55 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.1% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.28 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.28 |
The offense threw it 605 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 28.72% |
| Sam LaPorta | 21.02% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12.43% |
| Josh Reynolds | 11.21% |
| Kalif Raymond | 7.71% |
| Jameson Williams | 7.36% |
1 of his 9 games were blowouts, 16.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.6 in those and 3.54 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 17 against CHI — 16.3 PPR on 4 targets and a 13.8% target share, in a game that finished 41-10. His worst was Week 18 against GB at 0, on 1 targets, final score 20-16. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.4; in the 7 decided by more, 5.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 3.2 points per game. He scored 4.54, 51.4% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.78 expected, a gap of 1.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | WAS | 36-27 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 2.9% | 36% |
| 4 | SEA | 45-48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 32% |
| 7 | DAL | 6-24 | 9.7 | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 | 16% | 53% |
| 8 | MIA | 27-31 | 1.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2.7% | 38% |
| 9 | GB | 15-9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.2% | 81% |
| 10 | CHI | 31-30 | 7.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4% | 74% |
| 11 | NYG | 31-18 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 8% | 75% |
| 12 | BUF | 25-28 | 2.6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 8.6% | 68% |
| 13 | JAX | 40-14 | 4.5 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 5.1% | 46% |
| 14 | MIN | 34-23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.8% | 57% |
| 15 | NYJ | 20-17 | 12.1 | 1 | 2 | 51 | 1 | 5.6% | 47% |
| 16 | CAR | 23-37 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.4% | 41% |
| 17 | CHI | 41-10 | 16.3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 13.8% | 65% |
| 18 | GB | 20-16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 58% |
| Receptions | 18 |
| Targets | 24 |
| Receiving yards | 216 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 4.54 |
| Yards per target | 9 |
| Catch rate | 75% |
| Snap share | 55.07% |
| Target share | 5.65% |
| Air-yards share | 2.34% |
| WOPR | 0.101 |
| RACR | 2.759 |
| Average depth of target | 3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2.8 |
| Total YAC | 165 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.2% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 141.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.2 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.7% |
| End-zone target share | 3.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.78 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.22 |
The offense threw it 587 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 26.21% |
| D'Andre Swift | 12.57% |
| Kalif Raymond | 11.49% |
| Josh Reynolds | 10.59% |
| D.J. Chark | 9.34% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 7.72% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 48% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.17 in those and 3.36 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 18 against GB — 13.1 PPR on 2 targets and a 6.9% target share, in a game that finished 37-30. His worst was Week 15 against ARI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 30-12. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.1; in the 3 decided by more, 1.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 4.2 points per game. He scored 4.46, 20.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | LA | 19-28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 25% |
| 10 | PIT | 16-16 | 1.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8.3% | 51% |
| 11 | CLE | 10-13 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4.3% | 27% |
| 13 | MIN | 29-27 | 10.8 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 7.9% | 40% |
| 14 | DEN | 10-38 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 13.2% | 56% |
| 15 | ARI | 30-12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.8% | 75% |
| 16 | ATL | 16-20 | 3.4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8.6% | 73% |
| 18 | GB | 37-30 | 13.1 | 2 | 2 | 51 | 1 | 6.9% | 71% |
| Receptions | 12 |
| Targets | 17 |
| Receiving yards | 117 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 4.46 |
| Yards per target | 6.88 |
| Catch rate | 70.59% |
| Snap share | 52.25% |
| Target share | 6.63% |
| Air-yards share | 3.33% |
| WOPR | 0.124 |
| RACR | 1.603 |
| Average depth of target | 4.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Total YAC | 64 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.1 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 3% |
| End-zone target share | 5.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.62 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.62 |
The offense threw it 590 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 21.48% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 15.16% |
| D'Andre Swift | 14.08% |
| Kalif Raymond | 12.82% |
| Josh Reynolds | 6.5% |
| Jamaal Williams | 5.05% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 6 | 13 | 5.02 | 7.77 | 6.68% |
| Tim Boyle | 2 | 4 | 2.8 | 4 | 6.45% |
2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 14% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.5 in those and 6.14 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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