Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.42 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170.8, usage worth 3.3.
24 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 216.3 |
| ESPN | 170.2 |
| YAHOO | 126 |
| UNDERDOG | 172.5 |
| FFA | 187 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 3 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR137 |
| Bye week | 6 |
| ADP standard deviation | 45.2 picks |
Our board has him at 118.6 points, 7.2 per game — 38.7 catches, 523 yards, 4.6 TDs. That is WR6, 183 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 4.8 points per game to a ceiling of 11.6, with the median at 7.2. Boom rate 62%, bust rate 33%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170.8 on consensus and our board has him 183. We rank him 12.2 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Detroit Lions returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Jared Goff at quarterback, Dan Campbell as head coach, Drew Petzing calling it. The offense projects to 33.9 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.2 rushes.
In: Kendrick Law (wr4), Greg Dortch (wr5), Jackson Meeks (wr7), Isiah Pacheco (rb2). Out: Khalif Raymond (wr3), David Montgomery (rb2), Craig Reynolds (rb3).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 5.3%, with a bear case of 2.1% and a bull case of 8%.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Amon-Ra St Brown | 25.8% |
| Jameson Williams | 15.9% |
| Sam LaPorta | 15.2% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 13.2% |
| Kendrick Law | 7% |
| Greg Dortch | 5.7% |
Key additions: Lions have a new OC in Drew Petzing (coming over from Arizona after the entire coaching staff was let go). Petzing is an interesting hire & did not have success in Arizona. But no doubt this offense can succeed at a high rate under him. Drafted WR Kendrick Law in the 5th round. Signed RB Isiah Pacheco from Chiefs in free agency. Signed C Cade Mays from panthers to 3 year deal. Traded for additional O line man Juice Scruggs in David Montgomery trade. Added TE Tyler Conklin behind TE Sam LaPorta
Key departures: WR Kalif Raymond left to join Ben Johnson with the Bears. Lost T Taylor Decker & G Graham Glasgow. RB David Montgomery was also traded to the Texans.
Notes: Gibbs + Williams + ARSB all dynasty assets. David Montgomery was traded to the Houston Texans & opens the opportunity for Gibbs to be completely featured in this offense. If he can stay healthy, he may be the RB1 in fantasy for years to come. Lions brought in Isiah Pacheco as RB2 from the Chiefs on a 1 year deal. He is not expected to play very much, but could be relevant with Gibbs injury. Khalif Raymond heads to Chicago Bears & Kendrick Law COULD emerge as a solid WR4 or WR3 in the long run. Isaac TeSlaa holds significant value if St Brown or Williams were injured. Williams & St Brown are both excellent assets. Goff remains a interesting aging QB that is a low end QB1 in fantasy with a VERY high weekly ceiling but no mobility upside. A key potential bit to keep an eye on is the status of Sam LaPorta follwing his season ending back injury in 2025. He needs to get back to 100% and prove it before we completely trust him. Tough injury for a TE or any football player.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jared Goff returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.1 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.9 att/g; New OC Drew Petzing — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Depth/practice piece (holdover_no_qualifying_multi_year_sample) — slot prior 8.0% baseline.
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: DET rates 26.2 against a league average of 23, 3.2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.6 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -5.6 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +2.9 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -2.7 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +17.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 2021 | 6 | 75% | +19.6% |
| Jalin Hyatt | 2023 | 4.6 | 73% | -23.4% |
| Jalin Hyatt | 2024 | 1.4 | 71% | -0.8% |
| Cedric Tillman | 2023 | 4 | 68% | +69.9% |
| Van Jefferson | 2020 | 3.4 | 67% | +27.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 1 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 3, pick 70 by DET |
| College | Arkansas |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 214 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43s |
| Vertical | 39.5″ |
| Broad jump | 129″ |
| 3-cone | 6.85s |
| Shuttle | 4.05s |
His best game was Week 16 against PIT — 15.2 PPR on 7 targets and a 13.5% target share, in a game that finished 24-29. His worst was Week 15 against LA at 0, on 1 targets, final score 34-41. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.2; in the 7 decided by more, 6.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 3.3 points per game. He scored 5.42, 64.6% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 2.49 expected, a gap of 3.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 13-27 | 8.3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 2.6% | 4% |
| 2 | CHI | 52-21 | 3.9 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 3.6% | 29% |
| 3 | BAL | 38-30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.7% | 21% |
| 5 | CIN | 37-24 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 4.3% | 34% |
| 7 | TB | 24-9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.6% | 13% |
| 10 | WAS | 44-22 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3.1% | 29% |
| 11 | PHI | 9-16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.8% | 34% |
| 12 | NYG | 34-27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 41% |
| 13 | GB | 24-31 | 11.5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 | 7.4% | 92% |
| 14 | DAL | 44-30 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 9.7% | 77% |
| 15 | LA | 34-41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 62% |
| 16 | PIT | 24-29 | 15.2 | 4 | 7 | 52 | 1 | 13.5% | 55% |
| 17 | MIN | 10-23 | 13.9 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 1 | 13.8% | 52% |
| 18 | CHI | 19-16 | 2.8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 2.8% | 60% |
| Receptions | 16 |
| Targets | 27 |
| Receiving yards | 239 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 5.42 |
| Yards per target | 8.85 |
| Catch rate | 59.26% |
| Snap share | 43.07% |
| Target share | 5.72% |
| Air-yards share | 11.98% |
| WOPR | 0.169 |
| RACR | 0.611 |
| Average depth of target | 13.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.5 |
| Total YAC | 55 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 112.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.27 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.2% |
| End-zone target share | 38.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.49 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 3.51 |
The offense threw it 582 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 31.27% |
| Jameson Williams | 18.55% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 17.09% |
| Sam LaPorta | 8.91% |
| Kalif Raymond | 5.45% |
| David Montgomery | 5.27% |
2 of his 14 games were blowouts, 7.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3 in those and 4.21 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Isaac TeSlaa →