Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 6.72 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 152, usage worth 8.9.
27 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| SLEEPER | 187.4 |
| ESPN | 158 |
| YAHOO | 126.7 |
| UNDERDOG | 160.7 |
| CBS | 136 |
| FFA | 169 |
| Goes around | Round 13, pick 8 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB49 |
| Bye week | 6 |
| ADP standard deviation | 27 picks |
Our board has him at 91.9 points, 5.7 per game — 342 rushing yards, 4.3 rushing TDs, 15.2 catches. That is RB6, 167 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2.2 points per game to a ceiling of 10.7, with the median at 5.7. Boom rate 88%, bust rate 61%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 152 on consensus and our board has him 167. We rank him 15 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Lions backfield scored the most combined RB fantasy points/gm in the NFL last year; even a partial (~30%) share of an elite-scoring committee compares favorably to a bigger share of a mediocre one; Dan Campbell loves his physical running style
buy · medium conviction · 2026-08Detroit Lions returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Jared Goff at quarterback, Dan Campbell as head coach, Drew Petzing calling it. The offense projects to 33.9 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.2 rushes.
In: Kendrick Law (wr4), Greg Dortch (wr5), Jackson Meeks (wr7), Isiah Pacheco (rb2). Out: Khalif Raymond (wr3), David Montgomery (rb2), Craig Reynolds (rb3).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 60.2% |
| Isiah Pacheco ← | 33.2% |
| Sione Vaki | 4.8% |
| Jacob Saylors | 1.8% |
Key additions: Lions have a new OC in Drew Petzing (coming over from Arizona after the entire coaching staff was let go). Petzing is an interesting hire & did not have success in Arizona. But no doubt this offense can succeed at a high rate under him. Drafted WR Kendrick Law in the 5th round. Signed RB Isiah Pacheco from Chiefs in free agency. Signed C Cade Mays from panthers to 3 year deal. Traded for additional O line man Juice Scruggs in David Montgomery trade. Added TE Tyler Conklin behind TE Sam LaPorta
Key departures: WR Kalif Raymond left to join Ben Johnson with the Bears. Lost T Taylor Decker & G Graham Glasgow. RB David Montgomery was also traded to the Texans.
Notes: Gibbs + Williams + ARSB all dynasty assets. David Montgomery was traded to the Houston Texans & opens the opportunity for Gibbs to be completely featured in this offense. If he can stay healthy, he may be the RB1 in fantasy for years to come. Lions brought in Isiah Pacheco as RB2 from the Chiefs on a 1 year deal. He is not expected to play very much, but could be relevant with Gibbs injury. Khalif Raymond heads to Chicago Bears & Kendrick Law COULD emerge as a solid WR4 or WR3 in the long run. Isaac TeSlaa holds significant value if St Brown or Williams were injured. Williams & St Brown are both excellent assets. Goff remains a interesting aging QB that is a low end QB1 in fantasy with a VERY high weekly ceiling but no mobility upside. A key potential bit to keep an eye on is the status of Sam LaPorta follwing his season ending back injury in 2025. He needs to get back to 100% and prove it before we completely trust him. Tough injury for a TE or any football player.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jared Goff returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.1 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.9 att/g; New OC Drew Petzing — pass rate and tempo may shift.
| Projected carry share | 33.2% |
| Projected carries per game | 7.1 |
| Projected carries, full season | 121 |
| Last season, carries per game | 9.1 |
That is a reduction of 2 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 26.2 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: DET rates 26.2 against a league average of 23, 3.2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +2.5 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +12 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +0.8 · neutral |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | +11.2 |
| 2025 | 3 | Kareem Hunt | +8.1 |
| 2024 | 3 | Carson Steele | +2.7 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -30.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, RBs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 2023 | 9.4 | 66% | -24.4% |
| Boston Scott | 2021 | 9 | 58% | -3.9% |
| James Robinson | 2022 | 8.1 | 56% | -49.6% |
| Jerome Ford | 2024 | 9.6 | 56% | -32.9% |
| Khalil Herbert | 2022 | 9.1 | 56% | +4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 7, pick 251 by KAN |
| College | Rutgers |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 216 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.37s |
| Vertical | 33″ |
| Broad jump | 118″ |
| Career PPR per game | 10.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 25.6% |
| Bust rate | 20.5% |
| Games missed per season | 2 |
| Injury history | Shoulder, Ankle, Rib, Knee |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.56 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 16 against TEN — 13.5 PPR on 15 touches and a 31.8% target share, in a game that finished 9-26. His worst was Week 15 against LAC at 2.1, on 11 touches, final score 13-16. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.6; in the 7 decided by more, 8.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 8.9 points per game. He scored 6.72, 24.5% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 21-27 | 4.8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 7.9% | 51% |
| 2 | PHI | 17-20 | 3.9 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 6.9% | 58% |
| 3 | NYG | 22-9 | 5.8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 45 | 0 | 2.9% | 56% |
| 4 | BAL | 37-20 | 12.8 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 7 | 35 | 1 | 8.6% | 37% |
| 5 | JAX | 28-31 | 8.6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 7.5% | 62% |
| 6 | DET | 30-17 | 6.1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 0 | 10.7% | 77% |
| 7 | LV | 31-0 | 12.4 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 15 | 57 | 1 | 5.9% | 56% |
| 8 | WAS | 28-7 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 58 | 0 | 0% | 58% |
| 13 | DAL | 28-31 | 5.3 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 6.3% | 30% |
| 14 | HOU | 10-20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 0% | 33% |
| 15 | LAC | 13-16 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 0% | 46% |
| 16 | TEN | 9-26 | 13.5 | 6 | 7 | 41 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 31.8% | 73% |
| 17 | DEN | 13-20 | 3.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 0% | 35% |
| Receptions | 19 |
| Targets | 26 |
| Receiving yards | 101 |
| Carries | 118 |
| Rushing yards | 462 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 6.72 |
| Yards per target | 3.88 |
| Catch rate | 73.08% |
| Yards per carry | 3.92 |
| Snap share | 51.69% |
| Target share | 6.81% |
| Air-yards share | -0.61% |
| WOPR | 0.097 |
| RACR | 2.525 |
| Average depth of target | -1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.1 |
| Total YAC | 121 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 92 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.36 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.1% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 22.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.1 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.1 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.54 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 46 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 44 of 49 |
| Target share | 34 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 24 of 49 |
The offense threw it 584 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 19.71% |
| Rashee Rice | 14.23% |
| Marquise Brown | 13.5% |
| Xavier Worthy | 13.32% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 8.21% |
| Noah Gray | 6.75% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 11 | 19 | 6.42 | 3.16 | 5.15% |
| Chris Oladokun | 2 | 7 | 8.35 | 5.86 | 15.9% |
4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 51% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.13 in those and 4.65 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against CIN — 16.1 PPR on 24 touches and a 21.7% target share, in a game that finished 26-25. His worst was Week 17 against PIT at 1.8, on 6 touches, final score 29-10. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 4 times.
His usage that season was worth 9.4 points per game. He scored 8.13, 30.8% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 27-20 | 15.8 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 15 | 45 | 1 | 11.1% | 80% |
| 2 | CIN | 26-25 | 16.1 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 90 | 0 | 21.7% | 66% |
| 13 | LV | 19-17 | 5.9 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 2.2% | 37% |
| 14 | LAC | 19-17 | 8.1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 55 | 0 | 11.1% | 46% |
| 15 | CLE | 21-7 | 5.7 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 13 | 32 | 0 | 2.6% | 37% |
| 16 | HOU | 27-19 | 3.5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 4.9% | 35% |
| 17 | PIT | 29-10 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 0% | 32% |
| Receptions | 12 |
| Targets | 16 |
| Receiving yards | 79 |
| Carries | 83 |
| Rushing yards | 310 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 8.13 |
| Yards per target | 4.94 |
| Catch rate | 75% |
| Yards per carry | 3.73 |
| Snap share | 47.57% |
| Target share | 7.66% |
| Air-yards share | -2.81% |
| WOPR | 0.094 |
| RACR | 2.754 |
| Average depth of target | -1.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -3.3 |
| Total YAC | 119 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 85.2 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.26 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.95 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.7% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 13.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 12.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.62 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.62 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.34 |
The offense threw it 600 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 23.37% |
| Xavier Worthy | 17.22% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10.37% |
| Noah Gray | 8.61% |
| Samaje Perine | 6.15% |
| Kareem Hunt | 5.62% |
1 of his 7 games were blowouts, 3.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.8 in those and 9.88 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against CIN — 29.5 PPR on 25 touches and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 25-17. His worst was Week 9 against MIA at 6.6, on 17 touches, final score 21-14. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.9; in the 5 decided by more, 16. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 14.5 points per game. He scored 15.28, 6.8% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 20-21 | 9.4 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 10.8% | 48% |
| 2 | JAX | 17-9 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 70 | 0 | 5% | 51% |
| 3 | CHI | 41-10 | 15.8 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 62 | 1 | 8.1% | 42% |
| 4 | NYJ | 23-20 | 24.8 | 3 | 3 | 43 | 20 | 115 | 1 | 10.3% | 60% |
| 5 | MIN | 27-20 | 13.4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 55 | 1 | 2.6% | 59% |
| 6 | DEN | 19-8 | 15.8 | 6 | 6 | 36 | 16 | 62 | 0 | 15.4% | 63% |
| 7 | LAC | 31-17 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 13 | 32 | 1 | 10% | 53% |
| 8 | DEN | 9-24 | 6.7 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 10.8% | 54% |
| 9 | MIA | 21-14 | 6.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 66 | 0 | 3.6% | 68% |
| 11 | PHI | 17-21 | 10.1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 89 | 0 | 2.6% | 61% |
| 12 | LV | 31-17 | 25.9 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 15 | 55 | 2 | 15.6% | 78% |
| 13 | GB | 19-27 | 21.3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 110 | 1 | 13.3% | 70% |
| 16 | LV | 14-20 | 10.6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 1 | 9.8% | 57% |
| 17 | CIN | 25-17 | 29.5 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 18 | 130 | 1 | 25% | 93% |
| Receptions | 44 |
| Targets | 49 |
| Receiving yards | 244 |
| Carries | 205 |
| Rushing yards | 935 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 15.28 |
| Yards per target | 4.98 |
| Catch rate | 89.8% |
| Yards per carry | 4.56 |
| Snap share | 61.21% |
| Target share | 10.21% |
| Air-yards share | -3.78% |
| WOPR | 0.126 |
| RACR | -0.667 |
| Average depth of target | -2.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.6 |
| Total YAC | 359 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 101 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.13 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.34 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.7% |
| End-zone target share | 3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 68.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 77.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.58 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.58 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 9.43 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 14 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 32 of 49 |
| Target share | 22 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 49 of 49 |
The offense threw it 634 times. He took 8.19% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 20.23% |
| Rashee Rice | 17.06% |
| Justin Watson | 8.86% |
| Isiah Pacheco ← | 8.19% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 7.02% |
| Noah Gray | 6.86% |
1 of his 14 games were blowouts, 7.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.8 in those and 14.86 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 13 against CIN — 16.2 PPR on 16 touches and a 8.7% target share, in a game that finished 24-27. His worst was Week 5 against LV at 0, on 1 touches, final score 30-29. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.8; in the 7 decided by more, 9.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 8.1 points per game. He scored 7.94, 7.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 44-21 | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 62 | 1 | 0% | 23% |
| 2 | LAC | 27-24 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 9% |
| 3 | IND | 17-20 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 8% |
| 4 | TB | 41-31 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 63 | 0 | 0% | 21% |
| 5 | LV | 30-29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 6 | BUF | 20-24 | 3.8 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5.7% | 15% |
| 7 | SF | 44-23 | 4.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 0% | 30% |
| 9 | TEN | 20-17 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1.6% | 22% |
| 10 | JAX | 27-17 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 82 | 0 | 0% | 56% |
| 11 | LAC | 30-27 | 10.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 107 | 0 | 0% | 40% |
| 12 | LA | 26-10 | 15.6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 22 | 69 | 1 | 2.7% | 51% |
| 13 | CIN | 24-27 | 16.2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 66 | 1 | 8.7% | 45% |
| 14 | DEN | 34-28 | 12.3 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 70 | 0 | 7.1% | 43% |
| 15 | HOU | 30-24 | 8.7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 86 | 0 | 2.4% | 35% |
| 16 | SEA | 24-10 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 14 | 58 | 0 | 7.4% | 49% |
| 17 | DEN | 27-24 | 12.9 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 31 | 1 | 4.9% | 45% |
| 18 | LV | 31-13 | 12.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 64 | 1 | 0% | 36% |
| Receptions | 13 |
| Targets | 14 |
| Receiving yards | 130 |
| Carries | 170 |
| Rushing yards | 830 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 7.94 |
| Yards per target | 9.29 |
| Catch rate | 92.86% |
| Yards per carry | 4.88 |
| Snap share | 31.24% |
| Target share | 2.38% |
| Air-yards share | -0.12% |
| WOPR | 0.036 |
| RACR | 0.175 |
| Average depth of target | -0.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 12.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.1 |
| Total YAC | 157 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 105.4 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.31 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.23 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 0.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 38.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 41.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.13 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.13 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 7.64 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 40 of 42 |
| Yards per target | 2 of 42 |
| Target share | 41 of 42 |
| Air-yards share | 22 of 42 |
The offense threw it 650 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 24.92% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 16.56% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 13.28% |
| Jerick McKinnon | 11.64% |
| Justin Watson | 5.57% |
| Mecole Hardman | 5.57% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 21.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.63 in those and 6.8 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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