Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 2.88 points per game in 2025, usage worth 3.
31 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class
Los Angeles Chargers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Justin Herbert at quarterback, Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Mike McDaniel calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27 rushes.
In: Brenen Thompson (wr4), Luke Grimm (wr7), Keaton Mitchell (rb2), Charlie Kolar (te2). Out: Keenan Allen (wr3), Tyler Conklin (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Ladd McConkey | 24.2% |
| Quentin Johnston | 18.9% |
| Tre' Harris | 13.3% |
| Oronde Gadsden | 10.6% |
| Omarion Hampton | 10% |
| Brenen Thompson | 8.6% |
What the offense looks like: The top targets and back in this offense will be STELLAR fantasy assets in 2026 and beyond. Herbert SHOULD have a killer season in 2026.
Key additions: Joe Alt & Slater are back. This offense should do a complete 180. Joe Alt & Slater return in 2026 from injury & Chargers add Jake Slaughter LG in the 2nd round of 2026 draft. Sign Tyler Biadasz C, and RG Cole Strange. Entire different O ine from later year. Signed RB Keaton Mitchell to 2 year deal. Signed FB Alex Ingold from Miami. Biggest change is teh offensive Genius Mike McDaniel is the new OC.
Key departures: Keenan Allen remains a free agent and is not currently expected back with the Chargers
Notes: Chargers bring in Mike McDaniel as offensvie coordinator who could SUPERCHARGE offense. Herbert ascending as top 7 dynasty QB. Keenan Allen remains a free agent. Ladd & QJ should operate as 1A & 1B with Ladd having more potential. Tre' Harris should operate as WR3 if no one else is brought in. TE Oronde Gadsden could be very good. RB room is complex. Hampton is the presumed starter week 1 with massive potential but Vidal has been very capable as a back up & chargers also signed Keaton Mitchell to 2 year deal in free agency. Question mark people should think about in usage. Thompson round 4.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Justin Herbert returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Mike McDaniel — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Offensive environment: LAC rates 24.3 against a league average of 23, 1.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.5 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -7.8 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.1 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +0.6 · neutral |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -35.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, TEs recover only 30% of the time (keep falling 70%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham Smythe | 2024 | 1 | 63% | +26.5% |
| Will Dissly | 2023 | 3.1 | 51% | +219.4% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2024 | 2.7 | 50% | +6.5% |
| Austin Hooper | 2023 | 3 | 47% | +46.1% |
| Harrison Bryant | 2024 | 2.9 | 44% | +48.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 5 gained value, 0 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2018, round 5, pick 157 by MIN |
| College | Central Michigan |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 254 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.8s |
| Vertical | 38″ |
| Broad jump | 120″ |
| 3-cone | 7.13s |
| Shuttle | 4.23s |
| Career PPR per game | 7.2 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 15.6% |
| Bust rate | 29.7% |
| Games missed per season | 0.2 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.05 |
His best game was Week 1 against KC — 7.2 PPR on 2 targets and a 5.9% target share, in a game that finished 27-21. His worst was Week 3 against DEN at 0, on 2 targets, final score 23-20. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.8; in the 3 decided by more, 2.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 3 points per game. He scored 2.88, 4.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 27-21 | 7.2 | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 5.9% | 43% |
| 3 | DEN | 23-20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4.4% | 26% |
| 4 | NYG | 18-21 | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2.6% | 19% |
| 5 | WAS | 10-27 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 9.4% | 30% |
| 10 | PIT | 25-10 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | 32% |
| 18 | DEN | 3-19 | 1.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2.6% | 32% |
| Receptions | 7 |
| Targets | 10 |
| Receiving yards | 101 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 2.88 |
| Yards per target | 10.1 |
| Catch rate | 70% |
| Yards per carry | 2 |
| Snap share | 30.33% |
| Target share | 4.65% |
| Air-yards share | 3.48% |
| WOPR | 0.097 |
| RACR | 1.333 |
| Average depth of target | 4.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.3 |
| Total YAC | 57 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.2% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 102.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.61 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.09 |
The offense threw it 569 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Keenan Allen | 22.63% |
| Ladd McConkey | 19.67% |
| Quentin Johnston | 15.58% |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 12.8% |
| Tre Harris | 7.98% |
| Omarion Hampton | 6.49% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 9 | 3.14 | 10.56 | 5.06% |
| Trey Lance | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 6 | 2.6% |
1 of his 6 games were blowouts, 28.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5 in those and 2.83 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 17 against BUF — 21.7 PPR on 8 targets and a 25.8% target share, in a game that finished 14-40. His worst was Week 9 against HOU at 0.7, on 2 targets, final score 21-13. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.7; in the 7 decided by more, 10.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 8 points per game. He scored 7.62, 4.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 19-32 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6.9% | 90% |
| 2 | TEN | 24-17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6.9% | 93% |
| 3 | NE | 24-3 | 14.3 | 5 | 6 | 93 | 0 | 17.6% | 92% |
| 4 | DEN | 9-10 | 5.7 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 19.5% | 92% |
| 5 | MIN | 17-23 | 11.5 | 6 | 9 | 55 | 0 | 17.6% | 82% |
| 6 | BUF | 20-23 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 8.8% | 73% |
| 7 | PIT | 15-37 | 10.7 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 10.3% | 86% |
| 8 | NE | 22-25 | 13.2 | 3 | 4 | 42 | 1 | 16% | 81% |
| 9 | HOU | 21-13 | 0.7 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 6.3% | 78% |
| 10 | ARI | 6-31 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6.1% | 78% |
| 11 | IND | 27-28 | 1.7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6.9% | 92% |
| 13 | SEA | 21-26 | 7.2 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 13.2% | 82% |
| 14 | MIA | 26-32 | 6.3 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 12.8% | 79% |
| 16 | LA | 9-19 | 10.9 | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 | 16.7% | 77% |
| 17 | BUF | 14-40 | 21.7 | 8 | 8 | 57 | 1 | 25.8% | 84% |
| 18 | MIA | 32-20 | 9.6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 8.6% | 22% |
| Receptions | 51 |
| Targets | 72 |
| Receiving yards | 449 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 7.62 |
| Yards per target | 6.24 |
| Catch rate | 70.83% |
| Snap share | 80.06% |
| Target share | 12.5% |
| Air-yards share | 9.07% |
| WOPR | 0.251 |
| RACR | 1.755 |
| Average depth of target | 4.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.7 |
| Total YAC | 262 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 105.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.7 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.2 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 10% |
| End-zone target share | 10.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.15 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.85 |
The offense threw it 607 times. He took 12.22% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Garrett Wilson | 25.98% |
| Davante Adams | 19.35% |
| Breece Hall | 12.9% |
| Tyler Conklin ← | 12.22% |
| Allen Lazard | 10.36% |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 4.75% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 39.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.13 in those and 5.7 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 10 against LV — 14 PPR on 7 targets and a 18.9% target share, in a game that finished 12-16. His worst was Week 8 against NYG at 0, on 2 targets, final score 13-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.3; in the 9 decided by more, 8.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 8.9 points per game. He scored 7.24, 18.2% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 2.54 expected, a gap of -2.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 22-16 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5.6% | 80% |
| 2 | DAL | 10-30 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 24% | 87% |
| 3 | NE | 10-15 | 5.6 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 17.9% | 76% |
| 4 | KC | 20-23 | 9.8 | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 | 15.4% | 68% |
| 5 | DEN | 31-21 | 10.7 | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 | 19.2% | 55% |
| 6 | PHI | 20-14 | 5.4 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 12.1% | 71% |
| 8 | NYG | 13-10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.9% | 69% |
| 9 | LAC | 6-27 | 12.6 | 6 | 6 | 66 | 0 | 12.5% | 62% |
| 10 | LV | 12-16 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 70 | 0 | 18.9% | 64% |
| 11 | BUF | 6-32 | 3.8 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 10.7% | 67% |
| 12 | MIA | 13-34 | 7.3 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 13.9% | 60% |
| 13 | ATL | 8-13 | 6.5 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 0 | 25% | 74% |
| 14 | HOU | 30-6 | 9.7 | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 17.1% | 56% |
| 15 | MIA | 0-30 | 5.8 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 21.2% | 66% |
| 16 | WAS | 30-28 | 7.6 | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 15.6% | 83% |
| 17 | CLE | 20-37 | 9.5 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 11.4% | 79% |
| 18 | NE | 17-3 | 3.6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 16.7% | 77% |
| Receptions | 61 |
| Targets | 87 |
| Receiving yards | 621 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 7.24 |
| Yards per target | 7.14 |
| Catch rate | 70.11% |
| Snap share | 70.24% |
| Target share | 15.48% |
| Air-yards share | 13.92% |
| WOPR | 0.329 |
| RACR | 1.125 |
| Average depth of target | 6.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Total YAC | 245 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 85.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.38 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.21 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 15.8% |
| End-zone target share | 23.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.54 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.54 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 14 of 14 |
| Yards per target | 12 of 14 |
| Target share | 14 of 14 |
| Air-yards share | 10 of 14 |
The offense threw it 600 times. He took 15.56% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Garrett Wilson | 30.05% |
| Breece Hall | 16.99% |
| Tyler Conklin ← | 15.56% |
| Allen Lazard | 8.77% |
| Xavier Gipson | 6.8% |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 3.94% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 11 | 51 | 7.53 | 8.59 | 14.48% |
| Trevor Siemian | 4 | 22 | 6.63 | 5.23 | 16.22% |
| Tim Boyle | 2 | 14 | 6.9 | 4.86 | 19.45% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 47.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.39 in those and 6.26 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 8 against NE — 25.9 PPR on 10 targets and a 29.4% target share, in a game that finished 17-22. His worst was Week 5 against MIA at 0, on 1 targets, final score 40-17. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.1; in the 7 decided by more, 8.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9 points per game. He scored 7.74, 13.7% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.18 expected, a gap of 1.8.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 9-24 | 11.6 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 12.3% | 92% |
| 2 | CLE | 31-30 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 20.9% | 100% |
| 3 | CIN | 12-27 | 16.4 | 8 | 8 | 84 | 0 | 16.7% | 79% |
| 4 | PIT | 24-20 | 8.2 | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 | 15.2% | 81% |
| 5 | MIA | 40-17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.8% | 68% |
| 6 | GB | 27-10 | 2.7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 11.8% | 67% |
| 7 | DEN | 16-9 | 6.2 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 26.1% | 75% |
| 8 | NE | 17-22 | 25.9 | 6 | 10 | 79 | 2 | 29.4% | 75% |
| 9 | BUF | 20-17 | 1.7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 8.3% | 72% |
| 11 | NE | 3-10 | 3.5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 15% | 74% |
| 12 | CHI | 31-10 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 10.7% | 79% |
| 13 | MIN | 22-27 | 2.9 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 12.7% | 72% |
| 14 | BUF | 12-20 | 7.8 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 18.2% | 72% |
| 15 | DET | 17-20 | 1.9 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5.9% | 75% |
| 16 | JAX | 3-19 | 7.4 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 13.3% | 71% |
| 17 | SEA | 6-23 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 80 | 0 | 13.3% | 61% |
| 18 | MIA | 6-11 | 3.3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 12.5% | 96% |
| Receptions | 58 |
| Targets | 87 |
| Receiving yards | 552 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 3 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 7.74 |
| Yards per target | 6.34 |
| Catch rate | 66.67% |
| Yards per carry | 1.5 |
| Snap share | 77% |
| Target share | 14.54% |
| Air-yards share | 13.58% |
| WOPR | 0.313 |
| RACR | 1.345 |
| Average depth of target | 6.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.5 |
| Total YAC | 293 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 86 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.14 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.07 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.3% |
| End-zone target share | 12% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.18 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.82 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.43 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 11 of 11 |
| Yards per target | 10 of 11 |
| Target share | 10 of 11 |
| Air-yards share | 9 of 11 |
The offense threw it 625 times. He took 14.82% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Garrett Wilson | 25.04% |
| Tyler Conklin ← | 14.82% |
| Elijah Moore | 11.07% |
| Corey Davis | 10.9% |
| Michael Carter | 9.2% |
| Braxton Berrios | 5.45% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 9 | 35 | 6.39 | 6.63 | 14.42% |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 28 | 10.32 | 5.46 | 15.6% |
| Mike White | 4 | 24 | 8.18 | 6.96 | 13.72% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 18.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.17 in those and 7.14 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 3 against SEA — 20 PPR on 8 targets and a 21.1% target share, in a game that finished 30-17. His worst was Week 15 against CHI at 1.7, on 3 targets, final score 17-9. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 14 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.6; in the 3 decided by more, 10.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 8.9 points per game. He scored 8.14, 9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 24-27 | 8.1 | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 8.5% | 71% |
| 2 | ARI | 33-34 | 3.5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 12.5% | 80% |
| 3 | SEA | 30-17 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 70 | 1 | 21.1% | 72% |
| 4 | CLE | 7-14 | 5.8 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 16.7% | 85% |
| 5 | DET | 19-17 | 4.5 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 9.7% | 75% |
| 6 | CAR | 34-28 | 10.1 | 3 | 5 | 71 | 0 | 11.1% | 85% |
| 8 | DAL | 16-20 | 10.7 | 5 | 7 | 57 | 0 | 21.2% | 82% |
| 9 | BAL | 31-34 | 9.5 | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 25% | 87% |
| 10 | LAC | 27-20 | 16.1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 14.3% | 85% |
| 11 | GB | 34-31 | 6.5 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 8.8% | 80% |
| 12 | SF | 26-34 | 4.5 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 9.4% | 80% |
| 13 | DET | 27-29 | 12.6 | 7 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 22% | 95% |
| 14 | PIT | 36-28 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6.5% | 70% |
| 15 | CHI | 17-9 | 1.7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 13.6% | 73% |
| 16 | LA | 23-30 | 8.4 | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 14.3% | 97% |
| 17 | GB | 10-37 | 9.7 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 0 | 24.3% | 93% |
| 18 | CHI | 31-17 | 2.6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 19% | 67% |
| Receptions | 61 |
| Targets | 87 |
| Receiving yards | 593 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 8.14 |
| Yards per target | 6.82 |
| Catch rate | 70.11% |
| Snap share | 81% |
| Target share | 15.18% |
| Air-yards share | 10.04% |
| WOPR | 0.298 |
| RACR | 1.729 |
| Average depth of target | 5.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Total YAC | 327 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 100.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.67 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 20.5% |
| End-zone target share | 19.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.56 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.56 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 14 of 15 |
| Yards per target | 11 of 15 |
| Target share | 14 of 15 |
| Air-yards share | 15 of 15 |
The offense threw it 604 times. He took 15.56% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Justin Jefferson | 29.87% |
| Adam Thielen | 16.99% |
| Tyler Conklin ← | 15.56% |
| K.J. Osborn | 14.67% |
| Dalvin Cook | 8.77% |
| Alexander Mattison | 6.98% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 16 | 78 | 8.04 | 7 | 14.61% |
| Sean Mannion | 1 | 9 | 9.7 | 5.22 | 24.3% |
1 of his 17 games were blowouts, 7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.7 in those and 7.57 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against CHI — 14.7 PPR on 4 targets and a 13.3% target share, in a game that finished 27-33. His worst was Week 9 against DET at 0, on 0 targets, final score 34-20. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.7; in the 4 decided by more, 4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6.6 points per game. He scored 4.93, 3.5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | IND | 11-28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 6% |
| 9 | DET | 34-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 43% |
| 10 | CHI | 19-13 | 3.1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6.3% | 62% |
| 12 | CAR | 28-27 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4.7% | 66% |
| 13 | JAX | 27-24 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.5% | 65% |
| 14 | TB | 14-26 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 14.3% | 57% |
| 15 | CHI | 27-33 | 14.7 | 3 | 4 | 57 | 1 | 13.3% | 66% |
| 16 | NO | 33-52 | 7.1 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 15.8% | 86% |
| 17 | DET | 37-35 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 15.8% | 71% |
| Receptions | 19 |
| Targets | 26 |
| Receiving yards | 194 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 4.93 |
| Yards per target | 7.46 |
| Catch rate | 73.08% |
| Snap share | 58% |
| Target share | 8.08% |
| Air-yards share | 4.79% |
| WOPR | 0.154 |
| RACR | 1.584 |
| Average depth of target | 4.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Total YAC | 126 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 106.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.88 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.6% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.86 |
The offense threw it 516 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Justin Jefferson | 26.48% |
| Adam Thielen | 22.88% |
| Dalvin Cook | 11.44% |
| Irv Smith | 9.11% |
| Kyle Rudolph | 7.84% |
| Chad Beebe | 6.36% |
2 of his 9 games were blowouts, 16% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.55 in those and 5.66 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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