Pass rate over expected vs. offense EPA (2026, Weeks 1–9)
All 32 NFL teams through Week 9 of 2026: pass rate over expected across, offense EPA per play up, split at the averages. Let it fly, it works (top right): Bengals, Chiefs and 49ers. Run-first & stuck (bottom left): Chargers, Buccaneers and Dolphins.
Every team on the chart
Every team on the chart, grouped by corner, the same order as the caption.
| Team | Pass rate over expected | Offense EPA per play |
|---|---|---|
| Let it fly, it works · top right | ||
| Bengals | +6.1% | +0.14 |
| Chiefs | +1.1% | +0.13 |
| 49ers | -3.1% | +0.18 |
| Packers | +3.2% | +0.04 |
| Panthers | +1.2% | +0.04 |
| Cowboys | -3.0% | +0.10 |
| Lions | -3.6% | +0.10 |
| Rams | -1.3% | +0.04 |
| Texans | -3.7% | +0.06 |
| Bears | -3.0% | +0.04 |
| Run-first & efficient · top left | ||
| Jaguars | -7.5% | +0.15 |
| Bills | -7.3% | +0.14 |
| Patriots | -5.9% | +0.04 |
| Giants | -7.9% | +0.00 |
| Jets | -5.7% | +0.00 |
| Passing, not working · bottom right | ||
| Steelers | +0.1% | -0.03 |
| Cardinals | -1.9% | -0.04 |
| Saints | -4.0% | -0.04 |
| Broncos | -2.8% | -0.01 |
| Raiders | -3.1% | -0.01 |
| Run-first & stuck · bottom left | ||
| Chargers | -14.8% | -0.24 |
| Buccaneers | -15.4% | -0.11 |
| Dolphins | -16.2% | -0.06 |
| Vikings | -6.7% | -0.16 |
| Eagles | -6.4% | -0.15 |
| Falcons | -9.9% | -0.07 |
| Titans | -8.6% | -0.09 |
| Colts | -6.4% | -0.13 |
| Ravens | -11.1% | -0.01 |
| Browns | -6.6% | -0.08 |
| Seahawks | -7.8% | -0.04 |
| Commanders | -6.5% | -0.03 |
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Minimums scale with the season (QBs 15 attempts a week, RBs 8 carries, WRs 5 targets, TEs 3). Expected points price every carry and target by where it happened. Built from the same data as the Charts gallery; every chart saves as a 1080 × 1350 post.