Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 0.91 points per game in 2025, usage worth 1.4.
26 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
Los Angeles Chargers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Justin Herbert at quarterback, Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Mike McDaniel calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27 rushes.
In: Brenen Thompson (wr4), Luke Grimm (wr7), Keaton Mitchell (rb2), Charlie Kolar (te2). Out: Keenan Allen (wr3), Tyler Conklin (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Omarion Hampton | 54.1% |
| Keaton Mitchell | 21.8% |
| Jaret Patterson | 15.2% |
| Kamani Vidal | 9% |
What the offense looks like: The top targets and back in this offense will be STELLAR fantasy assets in 2026 and beyond. Herbert SHOULD have a killer season in 2026.
Key additions: Joe Alt & Slater are back. This offense should do a complete 180. Joe Alt & Slater return in 2026 from injury & Chargers add Jake Slaughter LG in the 2nd round of 2026 draft. Sign Tyler Biadasz C, and RG Cole Strange. Entire different O ine from later year. Signed RB Keaton Mitchell to 2 year deal. Signed FB Alex Ingold from Miami. Biggest change is teh offensive Genius Mike McDaniel is the new OC.
Key departures: Keenan Allen remains a free agent and is not currently expected back with the Chargers
Notes: Chargers bring in Mike McDaniel as offensvie coordinator who could SUPERCHARGE offense. Herbert ascending as top 7 dynasty QB. Keenan Allen remains a free agent. Ladd & QJ should operate as 1A & 1B with Ladd having more potential. Tre' Harris should operate as WR3 if no one else is brought in. TE Oronde Gadsden could be very good. RB room is complex. Hampton is the presumed starter week 1 with massive potential but Vidal has been very capable as a back up & chargers also signed Keaton Mitchell to 2 year deal in free agency. Question mark people should think about in usage. Thompson round 4.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Justin Herbert returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Mike McDaniel — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Offensive environment: LAC rates 24.3 against a league average of 23, 1.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -3.1 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -0.3 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +2.7 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +43.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, RBs crash the following year 59% of the time (hold 41%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 59% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Blackshear | 2024 | 0.5 | 80% | -25% |
| Kene Nwangwu | 2023 | 0.2 | 79% | -43.3% |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2022 | 0.6 | 79% | -24.1% |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2023 | 2.2 | 77% | +13.8% |
| Craig Reynolds | 2023 | 2.6 | 75% | +46% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 4, pick 131 by TEN |
| College | Michigan |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 228 lb |
| Career PPR per game | 2.2 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1.4 |
| Boom rate | 3.6% |
| Bust rate | 50% |
| Games missed per season | 0.7 |
| Injury history | Hamstring |
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 6 against MIA — 3.3 PPR on 7 touches and a 2.6% target share, in a game that finished 29-27. His worst was Week 17 against HOU at 0, on 0 touches, final score 16-20. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 0.5; in the 5 decided by more, 1.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 1.4 points per game. He scored 0.91, 41.5% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 27-21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2% |
| 2 | LV | 20-9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2% |
| 3 | DEN | 23-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 8% |
| 4 | NYG | 18-21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 8% |
| 5 | WAS | 10-27 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 3.1% | 21% |
| 6 | MIA | 29-27 | 3.3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 2.6% | 31% |
| 7 | IND | 24-38 | 2.5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3.7% | 33% |
| 14 | PHI | 22-19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 16 | DAL | 34-17 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 9% |
| 17 | HOU | 16-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2% |
| 18 | DEN | 3-19 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 4% |
| Receptions | 4 |
| Targets | 4 |
| Receiving yards | 13 |
| Carries | 17 |
| Rushing yards | 47 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 0.91 |
| Yards per target | 3.25 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 2.76 |
| Snap share | 10.91% |
| Target share | 0.85% |
| Air-yards share | 0.08% |
| WOPR | 0.014 |
| RACR | 0.474 |
| Average depth of target | -0.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.8 |
| Total YAC | 16 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 80.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.14 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.26 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.09 |
The offense threw it 569 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Keenan Allen | 22.63% |
| Ladd McConkey | 19.67% |
| Quentin Johnston | 15.58% |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 12.8% |
| Tre Harris | 7.98% |
| Omarion Hampton | 6.49% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 10 | 4 | 0.97 | 3.25 | 0.94% |
| Trey Lance | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | — | 0% |
2 of his 11 games were blowouts, 39% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.95 in those and 0.55 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 16 against DEN — 11.9 PPR on 2 touches and a 6.7% target share, in a game that finished 34-27. His worst was Week 13 against ATL at -2, on 1 touches, final score 17-13. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.8; in the 6 decided by more, 3.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 2.4 points per game. He scored 2.73, 16% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CAR | 26-3 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 7% |
| 6 | DEN | 23-16 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 4% |
| 7 | ARI | 15-17 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 8 | NO | 26-8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2% |
| 9 | CLE | 27-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | TEN | 27-17 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 8% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-27 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 9% |
| 12 | BAL | 23-30 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 45% |
| 13 | ATL | 17-13 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 16 | DEN | 34-27 | 11.9 | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6.7% | 20% |
| 17 | NE | 40-7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 30 | 0 | 2.5% | 35% |
| 18 | LV | 34-20 | 9.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 1 | 0% | 36% |
| Receptions | 3 |
| Targets | 3 |
| Receiving yards | 49 |
| Carries | 34 |
| Rushing yards | 89 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 2.73 |
| Yards per target | 16.33 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 2.62 |
| Snap share | 15.5% |
| Target share | 0.77% |
| Air-yards share | 0.21% |
| WOPR | 0.012 |
| RACR | 1.292 |
| Average depth of target | 2.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 14 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2.3 |
| Total YAC | 42 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 158.3 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.42 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.31 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 16.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 30.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.88 |
The offense threw it 509 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Ladd McConkey | 23.05% |
| Quentin Johnston | 18.72% |
| Josh Palmer | 13.37% |
| Will Dissly | 13.17% |
| J.K. Dobbins | 7.82% |
| Stone Smartt | 3.91% |
4 of his 12 games were blowouts, 18.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.52 in those and 1.83 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against DAL — 7.3 PPR on 15 touches and a 7.9% target share, in a game that finished 13-27. His worst was Week 12 against CIN at 0, on 0 touches, final score 16-20. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.3; in the 4 decided by more, 3.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4.8 points per game. He scored 1.86, 22.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BUF | 7-41 | 4.7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 4.3% | 50% |
| 3 | LV | 24-22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 7% |
| 4 | IND | 24-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | WAS | 21-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 7 | IND | 19-10 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 7% |
| 8 | HOU | 17-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 9 | KC | 17-20 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7.7% | 12% |
| 10 | DEN | 17-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 11 | GB | 27-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 11% |
| 12 | CIN | 16-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 11% |
| 15 | LAC | 14-17 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 7.7% | 19% |
| 16 | HOU | 14-19 | 3.7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10% | 25% |
| 17 | DAL | 13-27 | 7.3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 40 | 0 | 7.9% | 66% |
| 18 | JAX | 16-20 | 3.6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7.4% | 20% |
| Receptions | 11 |
| Targets | 12 |
| Receiving yards | 57 |
| Carries | 25 |
| Rushing yards | 93 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.86 |
| Yards per target | 4.75 |
| Catch rate | 91.67% |
| Yards per carry | 3.72 |
| Snap share | 16.93% |
| Target share | 3.57% |
| Air-yards share | 0.03% |
| WOPR | 0.053 |
| RACR | -0.353 |
| Average depth of target | -0.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.1 |
| Total YAC | 58 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 86.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.26 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.18 |
The offense threw it 456 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Robert Woods | 20.87% |
| Austin Hooper | 13.76% |
| Treylon Burks | 12.39% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 11.47% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 10.55% |
| Derrick Henry | 9.4% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 9 | 4 | 1.08 | 3 | 1.89% |
| Malik Willis | 3 | 3 | 1.8 | 6.33 | 5.9% |
| Joshua Dobbs | 2 | 5 | 5.45 | 5.2 | 7.65% |
1 of his 14 games were blowouts, 18.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.7 in those and 1.25 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Hassan Haskins →