Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 2.14 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 4.7.
| ESPN | 170 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| FFA | 612 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR116 |
| Bye week | 13 |
Our board has him at 23.4 points, 1.4 per game — 8.6 catches, 118 yards, 0.5 TDs. That is WR6, 367 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 0.5 points per game to a ceiling of 2.9, with the median at 1.4. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 71%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 367. We rank him 197 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Las Vegas Raiders returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, hc, oc. Kirk Cousins at quarterback, Klint Kubiak as head coach, Andrew Janocko calling it. The offense projects to 32.2 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.
In: Kirk Cousins (qb), Fernando Mendoza (qb2), Jalen Nailor (wr1), Malik Benson (wr5), Dareke Young (wr6), Philip Dorsett II (wr7), Mike Washington Jr (rb2), Chris Collier (rb4). Out: Geno Smith (qb), Jach Bech (wr2), Tyler Lockett (wr3), Raheem Mostert (rb2), Zamir White (rb3).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 7.7%, with a bear case of 5.9% and a bull case of 11.1% and a full range of 2.8% to 12.4%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Brock Bowers | 21% |
| Tre Tucker | 14% |
| Ashton Jeanty | 12.7% |
| Michael Mayer | 9.7% |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. ← | 7.7% |
| Jack Bech | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: If this offense can click, the top players in this offense will all have their values increase significantly. There is talent here: Bowers, Jeanty, Mendoza. But this WR corp is lacking, however Tucker, Nailor, Bech, and even Thornton Jr have a huge opportunity to step up.
Key additions: Drafted Fernando Mendoza 1 overall. Kirk Cousins signed in free agency on vet minimum deal. C Tyler Linderbaum landed HUGE deal coming over from Baltimore (top center in NFL). WR Jalen Nailor landed a 3 year deal & COULD be raiders WR1 IF no other veterans are brought in.
Key departures: QB Geno Smith was traded to the Jets.
Notes: Mendoza 1.01 franchise QB of the future. Raiders also signed Kirk Cousins & he is assumed week 1 starter. Mendoza may not play early half of season unless beats Cousins out in camp. Raiders spent big in free agency and O line should be better but still bad. Buy Bowers long-term. Monitor Mendoza development. Raiders will probably sign a veteran WR who could operate as WR1, either Jauan Jennings or Diggs or Tyreek Hill or Keenan Allen potentially. Tyreek Hill also an option. Mike Washington Jr will back up Ashton Jeanty. New HC Klint Kubiak former Seahawks OC should also boost offense creativity.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Kirk Cousins, avg 29.6 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.1 att/g; New OC Andrew Janocko — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Klint Kubiak.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~?, prior share 9.9%, same team, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 7.5%, p25-p75 [4.8%, 12.8%], tails [0.0%, 14.8%]. Closest comps: Tyler Scott 2023→2024 (CHI: 10.0%→3.2%); Jeff Smith 2020→2021 (NYJ: 14.5%→6.9%); Jalin Hyatt 2023→2024 (NYG: 10.8%→5.5%).
self-anchored 30% to own 9.9% role (1yr), 70% to comp median 7.5%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: LV rates 19.6 against a league average of 23, 3.4 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -5 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -9.6 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -3.6 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
Matched on production profile — pedigree-driven (limited evidence). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke McCaffrey | 2024 | 2.7 | 79% | +4.7% |
| David Bell | 2022 | 3 | 79% | -10.7% |
| Javon Baker | 2024 | 0.4 | 74% | -25.4% |
| Tylan Wallace | 2021 | 0.4 | 74% | -11.2% |
| Jaelon Darden | 2021 | 1.3 | 73% | -31.2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 4, pick 108 by LVR |
| College | Tennessee |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 205 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.3s |
| Vertical | 33″ |
| Broad jump | 126″ |
His best game was Week 1 against NE — 6.5 PPR on 4 targets and a 12.1% target share, in a game that finished 20-13. His worst was Week 18 against KC at 0, on 1 targets, final score 14-12. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2; in the 7 decided by more, 2.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4.7 points per game. He scored 2.14, 54.1% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 20-13 | 6.5 | 2 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 12.1% | — |
| 2 | LAC | 9-20 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 9.3% | — |
| 3 | WAS | 24-41 | 4.9 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 14.8% | — |
| 4 | CHI | 24-25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | — |
| 5 | IND | 6-40 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.6% | — |
| 7 | KC | 0-31 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17.6% | — |
| 10 | DEN | 7-10 | 1.4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8% | — |
| 12 | CLE | 10-24 | 2.4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 4.8% | — |
| 13 | LAC | 14-31 | 2.1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 9.1% | — |
| 17 | NYG | 10-34 | 3.2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 14.3% | — |
| 18 | KC | 14-12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.8% | — |
| Receptions | 10 |
| Targets | 30 |
| Receiving yards | 135 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 2.14 |
| Yards per target | 4.5 |
| Catch rate | 33.33% |
| Target share | 9.95% |
| Air-yards share | 24.86% |
| WOPR | 0.323 |
| RACR | 0.215 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.09 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 3.3% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.3 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.3 |
The offense threw it 515 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tre Tucker | 18.66% |
| Brock Bowers | 17.44% |
| Ashton Jeanty | 14.81% |
| Michael Mayer | 10.14% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 9.94% |
| Tyler Lockett | 6.9% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 10 | 29 | 2.35 | 4.66 | 10.56% |
| Aidan O'Connell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.8% |
5 of his 11 games were blowouts, 43.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.04 in those and 1.98 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Dont'e Thornton Jr. →