Joe Mixon
Overview
Board Oct 12Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at RB; our board rank is the call.
Week 6
Lines Oct 14SEA
DENAllowed to RBs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: Kenneth Walker III (W1, 34.1 PPR, 23 car 173 ry, 3/6 18 rec); Kyren Williams (W3, 21.8 PPR, 15 car 88 ry, 6/7 70 rec); Christian McCaffrey (W4, 16 PPR, 15 car 52 ry, 3/5 18 rec).
EPA ranks entering Week 6: #4 against the pass, #28 against the run (1 = best defense).
Runs by directionRB rushing points allowed a game
Big number: receiving fantasy points DEN allows a game to RBs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.
Against DEN beforelast 1
| Game | Line | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 W15@ DEN · W 15-10 | 17-58 rush · 1-2 on 1 tgt | 6.5 |
Game log
2026 · through W5No catch, carry or pass recorded in 2026 yet.
Seattle Seahawks have played 5 games. His past seasons are under Career.
Splits
Against coverage2022-2024 (2026 is not charted per player)
| Coverage | Tgt | Yds/tgt | Caught | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 52 | 5.3 | 69% | +0.11 |
| Zone | 155 | 6.0 | 79% | +0.08 |
| Cover 2 | 56 | 6.8 | 89% | +0.17 |
| Cover 3 | 44 | 7.0 | 77% | +0.02 |
| Cover 1 | 40 | 5.7 | 73% | +0.15 |
| Cover 4 | 30 | 3.8 | 60% | +0.08 |
| Cover 6 | 17 | 5.1 | 77% | −0.07 |
Team
SEASeattle Seahawks offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.
Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB
| Week | Score | Implied | Pass rate | QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs NE | 13-10 | 23.8 | 55%−7.6 | Lock22 att |
| W2vs ARI | 31-7 | 22.0 | 40%−11.8 | Lock26 att |
| W3vs WAS | 31-33 | 24.5 | 72%+7.4 | Darnold45 att |
| W4vs LAC | 30-23 | 24.8 | 45%−10.7 | Darnold22 att |
| W5vs SF | 29-32 | 24.8 | 57%−7.2 | Darnold29 att |
Depth chartRB, Oct 14
Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs RBs
Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to RBs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›
Head coach: Mike Macdonald. QB: Sam Darnold (most pass attempts, Week 5).
Career
Season by season
| Year | G | Rushing / receiving | Pts/g | xFP/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024HOU | 14 | 245-1,016-11 rush36-309-1 rec on 52 tgt | 15.9RB9 | 17.1+1.6 |
| 2023CIN | 17 | 257-1,034-9 rush52-376-3 rec on 64 tgt | 14.2RB13 | 14.6+18.2 |
| 2022CIN | 14 | 210-814-7 rush60-441-2 rec on 75 tgt | 15.0RB7 | 16.6−8.0 |
| 2021CIN | 16 | 359-1,467-14 rush60-421-3 rec on 69 tgt | 16.7RB4 | 16.4+24.7 |
| 2020CIN | 6 | 119-428-3 rush21-138-1 rec on 26 tgt | 14.9 | 19.3−16.3 |
Under points a game: his rank at RB in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected. Routes = share of team dropbacks he ran a route (through 2025).
Red zone and touchdowns
| 2024 | 1 RZ att, 0 pass TD vs 0.3 exp · 64 RZ car (69%), 14 inside 5, 12 rush TD vs 9.4 exp · 8 RZ tgt (11%), 1 end-zone, 1 rec TD vs 2.3 exp |
| 2023 | 59 RZ car (77%), 21 inside 5, 9 rush TD vs 12.0 exp · 14 RZ tgt (17%), 0 end-zone, 3 rec TD vs 3.3 exp |
| 2022 | 48 RZ car (55%), 20 inside 5, 8 rush TD vs 11.0 exp · 15 RZ tgt (14%), 4 end-zone, 2 rec TD vs 3.6 exp |
| 2021 | 1 RZ att, 1 pass TD vs 0.3 exp · 55 RZ car (75%), 16 inside 5, 13 rush TD vs 10.3 exp · 11 RZ tgt (14%), 1 end-zone, 2 rec TD vs 2.8 exp |
Floor and ceilingPPR
11 of his last 31 games reached 20 PPR; 9 finished under 10. Is there a floor-vs-ceiling trade-off? ›
Every game since 2020
2024 game log 14 games · HOU · 17.2 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1@ IND · D28 | 30-159-1 rush · 3-19 on 3 tgt | 72% | 25.3 |
| W2vs CHI · D25 | 9-25 rush · 3-25 on 5 tgt | 47% | 6.5 |
| W6@ NE · D23 | 13-102-1 rush · 2-30-1 on 3 tgt | 42% | 26.2 |
| W7@ GB · D15 | 25-115-2 rush · 2-9 on 3 tgt | 66% | 25.4 |
| W8vs IND · D21 | 25-102-1 rush · 4-32 on 6 tgt | 76% | 21.4 |
| W9@ NYJ · D9 | 0/1 0 yds 0 TD · 24-106-1 rush | 56% | 16.6 |
| W10vs DET · D5 | 25-46-1 rush · 2-44 on 4 tgt | 76% | 16.0 |
| W11@ DAL · D30 | 20-109-3 rush · 2-44 on 4 tgt | 81% | 34.3 |
| W12vs TEN · D14 | 14-22 rush · 5-23 on 6 tgt | 77% | 7.0 |
| W13@ JAX · D31 | 20-101-1 rush · 4-18 on 6 tgt | 75% | 19.9 |
| W15vs MIA · D20 | 12-23 rush · 5-33 on 6 tgt | 64% | 8.1 |
| W16@ KC · D1 | 14-57 rush · 1-14 on 2 tgt | 66% | 7.6 |
| W17vs BAL · D9 | 9-26 rush · 2-13 on 3 tgt | 48% | 4.9 |
| W18@ TEN · D21 | 5-23 rush · 1-5 on 1 tgt | 18% | 3.3 |
2023 game log 17 games · CIN · 15.7 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1@ CLE · D27 | 13-56 rush · 3-17 on 5 tgt | 63% | 8.8 |
| W2vs BAL · D11 | 13-59 rush · 4-36 on 5 tgt | 78% | 11.5 |
| W3vs LA · D19 | 19-65-1 rush · 1-5 on 2 tgt | 75% | 13.5 |
| W4@ TEN · D6 | 14-67 rush · 1-9 on 1 tgt | 79% | 8.1 |
| W5@ ARI · D30 | 25-81 rush · 4-13 on 4 tgt | 77% | 11.4 |
| W6vs SEA · D19 | 12-38 rush · 3-24 on 4 tgt | 70% | 7.7 |
| W8@ SF · D13 | 16-87-1 rush · 3-23 on 3 tgt | 75% | 18.5 |
| W9vs BUF · D22 | 14-37-1 rush · 5-31 on 6 tgt | 73% | 15.3 |
| W10vs HOU · D22 | 11-46-1 rush · 2--1 on 3 tgt | 73% | 11.5 |
| W11@ BAL · D13 | 16-69 rush · 5-31-1 on 5 tgt | 64% | 18.5 |
| W12vs PIT · D20 | 8-16 rush · 2-44 on 2 tgt | 65% | 7.0 |
| W13@ JAX · D16 | 19-68-2 rush · 6-49 on 7 tgt | 71% | 26.7 |
| W14vs IND · D29 | 21-79-1 rush · 3-46 on 4 tgt | 63% | 20.0 |
| W15vs MIN · D5 | 10-47-1 rush · 3-14 on 3 tgt | 70% | 13.6 |
| W16@ PIT · D20 | 11-43 rush · 2-7 on 4 tgt | 59% | 8.0 |
| W17@ KC · D13 | 21-65 rush · 4-22-1 on 4 tgt | 61% | 16.7 |
| W18vs CLE · D15 | 14-111-1 rush · 1-6-1 on 2 tgt | 55% | 24.2 |
2022 game log 14 games · CIN · 17.1 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs PIT | 27-82 rush · 7-63 on 9 tgt | 73% | 18.0 |
| W2@ DAL | 19-57 rush · 3-26 on 4 tgt | 76% | 9.8 |
| W3@ NYJ | 12-24 rush · 3-14 on 7 tgt | 66% | 5.3 |
| W4vs MIA · D12 | 24-61-1 rush · 4-13 on 4 tgt | 83% | 15.4 |
| W5@ BAL · D20 | 14-78 rush · 3-10 on 3 tgt | 70% | 10.3 |
| W6@ NO · D7 | 8-45 rush · 4-23-1 on 6 tgt | 72% | 14.8 |
| W7vs ATL · D13 | 17-58-1 rush · 3-33 on 3 tgt | 72% | 16.6 |
| W8@ CLE · D28 | 8-27 rush · 7-32 on 9 tgt | 72% | 9.4 |
| W9vs CAR · D21 | 22-153-4 rush · 4-58-1 on 5 tgt | 65% | 53.1 |
| W11@ PIT · D10 | 7-20 rush · 3-42 on 3 tgt | 21% | 7.7 |
| W14vs CLE · D30 | 14-96 rush · 2-10 on 2 tgt | 58% | 11.6 |
| W15@ TB · D6 | 11-21 rush · 5-33 on 6 tgt | 64% | 7.9 |
| W16@ NE · D2 | 16-65 rush · 7-43 on 9 tgt | 59% | 14.3 |
| W18vs BAL · D10 | 11-27-1 rush · 5-41 on 5 tgt | 55% | 15.3 |
2021 game log 16 games · CIN · 18.0 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs MIN | 29-127-1 rush · 4-23 on 4 tgt | 78% | 23.0 |
| W2@ CHI | 20-69 rush · 1-2 on 2 tgt | 84% | 7.6 |
| W3@ PIT | 18-90 rush · 1-4 on 1 tgt | 74% | 9.9 |
| W4vs JAX | 16-67-1 rush · 1-0 on 2 tgt | 69% | 13.2 |
| W5vs GB | 10-33-1 rush · 1-2 on 1 tgt | 28% | 10.0 |
| W6@ DET | 18-94 rush · 5-59-1 on 6 tgt | 63% | 23.8 |
| W7@ BAL | 12-59-1 rush | 54% | 11.9 |
| W8@ NYJ | 14-33-1 rush · 4-58-1 on 5 tgt | 76% | 23.1 |
| W9vs CLE | 13-64-2 rush · 5-46 on 5 tgt | 63% | 25.5 |
| W11@ LV | 30-123-2 rush | 72% | 24.3 |
| W12vs PIT | 28-165-2 rush · 4--2 on 4 tgt | 72% | 30.3 |
| W13vs LAC | 19-54-1 rush · 0-0 on 1 tgt | 66% | 9.4 |
| W14vs SF | 18-58 rush · 2-10 on 2 tgt | 60% | 7.8 |
| W15@ DEN | 17-58 rush · 1-2 on 1 tgt | 58% | 6.5 |
| W16vs BAL | 18-65-1 rush · 6-70-1 on 6 tgt | 82% | 28.5 |
| W17vs KC | 12-46 rush · 7-40 on 8 tgt | 71% | 12.1 |
2020 game log 6 games · CIN · 16.6 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs LAC | 19-69 rush · 1-2 on 2 tgt | 59% | 5.6 |
| W2@ CLE | 16-46 rush · 4-40 on 4 tgt | 50% | 10.6 |
| W3@ PHI | 17-49 rush · 2-16 on 3 tgt | 72% | 7.5 |
| W4vs JAX | 25-151-2 rush · 6-30-1 on 6 tgt | 83% | 39.1 |
| W5@ BAL | 24-59 rush · 6-35 on 8 tgt | 76% | 12.4 |
| W6@ IND | 18-54-1 rush · 2-15 on 3 tgt | 53% | 13.9 |
Health
No injury designation. Not on the Sleeper injury list as of Oct 10 and not on the Week 6 practice report so far.
2026 injury reportofficial, week by week
✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.
Historyofficial injury reports since 2020
| Year | Weeks listed | Ruled out | Listed for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 8 | 1 | Ankle (6) |
| 2023 | 3 | 0 | Chest, Ankle, Illness |
| 2022 | 4 | 1 | Concussion (3), Ankle |
| 2021 | 4 | 0 | Ankle (3), Illness |
| 2020 | 6 | 3 | Foot (4), Shin |
7 games missed 2023–25 (1.40 a season), Foot, Concussion, Ankle.
26 report weeks over 5 seasons; recurring: Shin, Foot, Ankle, Illness. Risk label: high.
Teammates on the report
Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›
Value
Market Oct 10Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.
Teal dot = today (1,854). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. RBs about 30 valued near #309 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 25 players' worth).
187.3 overall, RB110. ESPN 170.0 · Sleeper 204.6 · Underdog 216.0