Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 3.35 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 5.1.
26 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| ESPN | 170 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| FFA | 283 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB81 |
Cleveland Browns returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, hc, oc. Deshaun Watson at quarterback, Todd Monken as head coach, Travis Switzer calling it. The offense projects to 32.2 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 25.9 rushes.
In: Deshaun Watson (qb), KC Concepcion (wr2), Denzel Boston (wr4), Tylan Wallace (wr5), Ahmani Marshall (rb4), Jack Stoll (te2). Out: Dillon Gabriel (qb), Jamari Thrash (wr3), David Njoku (te1).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Quinshon Judkins | 58.9% |
| Dylan Sampson | 20.5% |
| Raheim Sanders | 17.7% |
| Ahmani Marshall | 2.9% |
What the offense looks like: Historically, this has been a brutal offense to own in fantasy. Other than TE and RB, not much fantasy relevance has come out of Cleveland in some time. Things could change with the new O line & KC & Boston arriving. Cleveland HAS to figure out the QB situation before we can have full confidence in any of these players, but the pieces may be falling in place for multiple guys to be weekly starters.
Key additions: MASSIVE OVERHAUL for browns line this offseason: Brought in LG Zion Johnson, Center Elgton Jenkins, RT Tytus Howard, & drafted LT Spencer Fano in the 1st round. Its a completely new unit under HC Todd Monken.
Key departures: TE David Njoku left the Browns & is still a free agent. Only key loss.
Notes: Browns drafted OT Spencer Fano RD 1 & WR KC Concepcion RD 1 in 2026 draft. Round 2 they took Denzel Boston. Concepcion & Boston can have fantasy value IF Cleveland figures out QB position. Browns fired HC Stefanski & hired Jesse Minter. Jerry Jeudy will likely struggle to have real fantasy value with the new rookies introduced. Harold Fannin has strong value with David Njoku leaving Cleveland. Njoku is still a free agent & COULD potentially return to Cleveland but it is unlikely. RB Quinshon Judkins was a real star of the Browns offense in 2025 and far outperformed Dylan Sampson. Judkins should be 100% recovered from his season ending leg injury he suffered in 2025 by week 1 2026.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Deshaun Watson, avg 29.7 att/g over 2024,2023; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.2 att/g; New OC Travis Switzer — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Todd Monken.
Offensive environment: CLE rates 18.5 against a league average of 23, 4.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1.9 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +2.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +7.4 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +4.4 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3 | Nick Chubb | +-0.3 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -30.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, RBs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 2022 | 5.1 | 71% | -42.4% |
| Ty Johnson | 2024 | 5.4 | 67% | +2.3% |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2023 | 6.1 | 61% | -47.2% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 2022 | 5.2 | 60% | -10.9% |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2023 | 7 | 59% | -44.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 5, pick 156 by CLE |
| College | Cincinnati |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 210 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46s |
| Vertical | 31″ |
| Broad jump | 118″ |
| Career PPR per game | 6.5 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1 |
| Boom rate | 6.7% |
| Bust rate | 42.2% |
| Games missed per season | 0.8 |
| Injury history | Hamstring, Ankle |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.69 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 2 against BAL — 10.4 PPR on 12 touches and a 14.6% target share, in a game that finished 17-41. His worst was Week 12 against LV at -0.3, on 1 touches, final score 24-10. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.6; in the 7 decided by more, 4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.1 points per game. He scored 3.35, 33.8% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 16-17 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 2.4% | 54% |
| 2 | BAL | 17-41 | 10.4 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 14.6% | 48% |
| 3 | GB | 13-10 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.1% | 36% |
| 4 | DET | 10-34 | 1.3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5.9% | 27% |
| 5 | MIN | 17-21 | 5.8 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 6.3% | 37% |
| 6 | PIT | 9-23 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 11.8% | 40% |
| 7 | MIA | 31-6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11.1% | 23% |
| 8 | NE | 13-32 | 0.9 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.1% | 24% |
| 10 | NYJ | 20-27 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.1% | 19% |
| 11 | BAL | 16-23 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 31% |
| 12 | LV | 24-10 | -0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 0% | 16% |
| 13 | SF | 8-26 | 4.7 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13% | 22% |
| 14 | TEN | 29-31 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.9% | 19% |
| Receptions | 26 |
| Targets | 32 |
| Receiving yards | 103 |
| Carries | 24 |
| Rushing yards | 73 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 3.35 |
| Yards per target | 3.22 |
| Catch rate | 81.25% |
| Yards per carry | 3.04 |
| Snap share | 30.46% |
| Target share | 7.25% |
| Air-yards share | -1.45% |
| WOPR | 0.098 |
| RACR | -2.055 |
| Average depth of target | -1.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2 |
| Total YAC | 154 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 80.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.43 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.23 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.9% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 6.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 13.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.89 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.89 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.32 |
The offense threw it 557 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 20.54% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 20.35% |
| David Njoku | 9.21% |
| Isaiah Bond | 8.45% |
| Dylan Sampson | 7.68% |
| Cedric Tillman | 7.49% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Gabriel | 5 | 13 | 3.56 | 3.23 | 7.68% |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 13 | 4.55 | 2.62 | 8.75% |
| Shedeur Sanders | 4 | 6 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 5.22% |
5 of his 13 games were blowouts, 46.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.06 in those and 2.6 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 16 against CIN — 24.1 PPR on 16 touches and a 16.1% target share, in a game that finished 6-24. His worst was Week 6 against PHI at 1.4, on 2 touches, final score 16-20. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.6; in the 9 decided by more, 10.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.6 points per game. He scored 9.57, 0.1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 17-33 | 18.9 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 12 | 44 | 1 | 16.3% | 75% |
| 2 | JAX | 18-13 | 7.4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 64 | 0 | 6.1% | 44% |
| 3 | NYG | 15-21 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 10 | 37 | 0 | 11.4% | 79% |
| 4 | LV | 16-20 | 15.5 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 10 | 58 | 0 | 21.9% | 78% |
| 5 | WAS | 13-34 | 7.9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 47 | 0 | 10.7% | 58% |
| 6 | PHI | 16-20 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 7% |
| 9 | LAC | 10-27 | 1.7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6.5% | 46% |
| 11 | NO | 14-35 | 7.9 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 8.9% | 56% |
| 12 | PIT | 24-19 | 3.7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 3.7% | 34% |
| 13 | DEN | 32-41 | 7.2 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 41 | 0 | 1.8% | 66% |
| 14 | PIT | 14-27 | 7.7 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 10 | 28 | 0 | 10.8% | 56% |
| 15 | KC | 7-21 | 18.4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 84 | 1 | 6.3% | 58% |
| 16 | CIN | 6-24 | 24.1 | 5 | 5 | 39 | 11 | 92 | 1 | 16.1% | 80% |
| 17 | MIA | 3-20 | 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 19% |
| Receptions | 37 |
| Targets | 43 |
| Receiving yards | 225 |
| Carries | 104 |
| Rushing yards | 565 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 9.57 |
| Yards per target | 5.23 |
| Catch rate | 86.05% |
| Yards per carry | 5.43 |
| Snap share | 54% |
| Target share | 8.61% |
| Air-yards share | -1.22% |
| WOPR | 0.12 |
| RACR | -0.471 |
| Average depth of target | -0.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.9 |
| Total YAC | 294 |
| Broken tackles | 7 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.35 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.36 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.6% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 19.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 16.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.14 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.94 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 33 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 30 of 46 |
| Target share | 28 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 30 of 46 |
The offense threw it 661 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jerry Jeudy | 22.87% |
| Elijah Moore | 16.09% |
| David Njoku | 15.3% |
| Jordan Akins | 9.15% |
| Amari Cooper | 8.36% |
| Cedric Tillman | 7.73% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 23 | 10.18 | 3.78 | 11.07% |
| Jameis Winston | 6 | 15 | 7.77 | 6.6 | 6.33% |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 2 | 5 | 13.15 | 7.8 | 8.05% |
5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 32.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.76 in those and 7.6 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 17 against NYJ — 26.1 PPR on 15 touches and a 10.3% target share, in a game that finished 37-20. His worst was Week 1 against CIN at 1.6, on 15 touches, final score 24-3. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.7; in the 9 decided by more, 12.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.6 points per game. He scored 12.42, 3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.29 expected, a gap of 1.7.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 24-3 | 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 36 | 0 | 0% | 41% |
| 2 | PIT | 22-26 | 24.1 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 16 | 106 | 1 | 10% | 49% |
| 3 | TEN | 27-3 | 19.1 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 10 | 18 | 2 | 9.7% | 56% |
| 4 | BAL | 3-28 | 9.5 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 17.6% | 62% |
| 6 | SF | 19-17 | 11.1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 84 | 0 | 6.1% | 50% |
| 7 | IND | 39-38 | 17.4 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 11 | 74 | 1 | 11.4% | 43% |
| 8 | SEA | 20-24 | 4.9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 6.7% | 33% |
| 9 | ARI | 27-0 | 12.7 | 5 | 7 | 33 | 20 | 44 | 0 | 25% | 64% |
| 10 | BAL | 33-31 | 11.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 107 | 0 | 3.1% | 64% |
| 11 | PIT | 13-10 | 11.9 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 1 | 12.2% | 49% |
| 12 | DEN | 12-29 | 11.9 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 9 | 65 | 0 | 17.9% | 70% |
| 13 | LA | 19-36 | 14.2 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 7.3% | 51% |
| 14 | JAX | 31-27 | 13.2 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 12 | 51 | 0 | 14% | 57% |
| 15 | CHI | 20-17 | 7.1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 11.4% | 51% |
| 16 | HOU | 36-22 | 9.3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 15 | 25 | 1 | 4.7% | 43% |
| 17 | NYJ | 37-20 | 26.1 | 2 | 3 | 57 | 12 | 64 | 2 | 10.3% | 40% |
| 18 | CIN | 14-31 | 5.2 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 12% | 36% |
| Receptions | 44 |
| Targets | 63 |
| Receiving yards | 319 |
| Carries | 204 |
| Rushing yards | 813 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 12.42 |
| Yards per target | 5.06 |
| Catch rate | 69.84% |
| Yards per carry | 3.99 |
| Snap share | 50.53% |
| Target share | 10.55% |
| Air-yards share | 0.59% |
| WOPR | 0.163 |
| RACR | 3.682 |
| Average depth of target | 0.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.3 |
| Total YAC | 304 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 107.8 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.36 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -2.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.3% |
| End-zone target share | 6.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 21.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 21.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.29 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.71 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.71 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 25 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 29 of 49 |
| Target share | 21 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 7 of 49 |
The offense threw it 624 times. He took 10.55% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amari Cooper | 21.44% |
| David Njoku | 20.6% |
| Elijah Moore | 17.42% |
| Jerome Ford ← | 10.55% |
| Cedric Tillman | 7.37% |
| Jordan Akins | 3.85% |
He caught passes from 5 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 5 | 15 | 13.88 | 6.2 | 9.56% |
| Joe Flacco | 5 | 19 | 13.98 | 6.84 | 9.54% |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 3 | 18 | 11.1 | 2.28 | 15.9% |
| P.J. Walker | 3 | 8 | 11.13 | 3.63 | 8.07% |
| Jeff Driskel | 1 | 3 | 5.2 | 8.67 | 12% |
8 of his 17 games were blowouts, 47.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.54 in those and 12.7 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against WAS — 0.9 PPR on 5 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 24-10. His worst was Week 18 against PIT at 0, on 0 touches, final score 14-28. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 0; in the 7 decided by more, 0.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 2.5 points per game. He scored 0.09, 76% below it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 26-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | NYJ | 30-31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | PIT | 29-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | ATL | 20-23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | MIA | 17-39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | BUF | 23-31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 12 | TB | 23-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 13 | HOU | 27-14 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 11% |
| 14 | CIN | 10-23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 15 | BAL | 13-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 16 | NO | 10-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 17 | WAS | 24-10 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 12% |
| 18 | PIT | 14-28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Receptions | 0 |
| Targets | 0 |
| Receiving yards | 0 |
| Carries | 8 |
| Rushing yards | 12 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 0.09 |
| Yards per carry | 1.5 |
| Snap share | 1.77% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| WOPR | 0 |
| RACR | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.26 |
The offense threw it 540 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amari Cooper | 26.09% |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 18.97% |
| David Njoku | 15.81% |
| Kareem Hunt | 8.7% |
| Harrison Bryant | 8.3% |
| Nick Chubb | 7.31% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 7 | 0 | 0 | — | 0% |
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 0 | 0.2 | — | 0% |
1 of his 13 games were blowouts, 0% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0 in those and 0 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Jerome Ford →