Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 0.89 points per game in 2025, usage worth 0.7.
26 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
Our board has him at 8.6 points, 0.5 per game — 3.6 catches, 35 yards, 0.3 TDs. That is WR6, 416 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 0.4 points per game to a ceiling of 1, with the median at 0.5. Boom rate 50%, bust rate 10%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
Atlanta Falcons returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Michael Penix Jr at quarterback, Kevin Stefanski as head coach, Tommy Rees calling it. The offense projects to 32.8 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.2 rushes.
In: Tua Tagovailoa (qb2), Olamide Zaccheaus (wr2), Zachariah Branch (wr3), Jahan Dotson (wr4), Brian Robinson Jr (rb2), Tyler Goodson (rb3), Carter Nathan (rb4), Austin Hooper (te2). Out: Kirk Cousins (qb2), Darnell Mooney (wr2), David Sills V (wr4), Ray-Ray McCloud III (wr5), Dylan Drummond (wr6), Khadarel Hodge (wr7), Tyler Allgeier (rb2), Nathan Carter (rb3), Charlie Woerner (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 1%, with a bear case of 0.4% and a bull case of 1.5%.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Drake London | 24.2% |
| Kyle Pitts | 16.9% |
| Bijan Robinson | 14.5% |
| Austin Hooper | 10.3% |
| Zachariah Branch | 8.4% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: Bijan Robinson has been able to produce redardless of poor QB play in ATL. Drake London has had flashes & the talent is clearly there, but needs better QB play. Perhaps Penix Jr fully recovers from 2nd ACL tear & proves he is the franchise QB. OR there is a SMALL chance Tua turns his career around and can elevate this offense. Unlikely. Despite what most fans think, the falcons have not committed to a starting QB, there is a decent chance their franchise QB is neither Penix or Tua.
Key additions: Tua Tagovailoa signed on 1 year veteran minumum deal. WR Jahan Dotson 2 year $15M deal. TE Austin Hooper 1 year deal to back up Pitts. WR Olamide Zaccheaus returns to ATL. OL Jawaan Taylor signed 1 year deal. Zachariah Branch WR Georgia 3rd Round draft pick.
Key departures: Drew Dalman (starting Center) left to Chicago Bears & RT Kaleb McGary retired aftr missing entire 2025 season. Elijah Wilkinson Starting RT left in free agency. Kirk Cousins left to Las Vegas. Tyler Allgeier left to Arizona. WR Darnell Mooney released after regression & heads to NY Giants.
Notes: Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa after release from Dolphins. Penix may be ready week 1 but possible he is no longer the starter. This will be determined in camp. New HC: Kevin Stefanski from Browns. Tommy Rees is new OC. Followed Stefanski from Cleveland. Bijan & London are core offensive players. Pitts wants long term exension, but was franchise tagged (could be traded). Branch round 3 Georgia WR adds speed & could produce early. Brian Robinson Jr is a valuable handcuff for Bijan Robinson but shouldn't have stand alone value. London clear WR1, Zaccheaus returns in free agency. Jahan Dotson (former 1st round pick) added in free agency. Zachariah Branch could see large volume as a rookie if develops quickly. QB play may still hold team back. Olamide Zaccheaus is a player that should be rostered in all leagues as a real sleeper. Highly productive player in Chicago that COULD pop early if Branch is a slow bloomer & Dotson is a nothing burger.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Michael Penix Jr returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.1 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.8 att/g; New OC Tommy Rees — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Kevin Stefanski.
Depth/practice piece (arrival_no_qualifying_multi_year_sample) — slot prior 1.2% baseline.
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: ATL rates 21.5 against a league average of 23, 1.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +2.1 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.4 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +5.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +3.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 2024 | 0.4 | 80% | +9.4% |
| Jaelon Darden | 2024 | 0.1 | 80% | +13.5% |
| Deonte Harty | 2023 | 2.6 | 75% | -41.5% |
| Tylan Wallace | 2023 | 1.4 | 70% | +138.3% |
| Tylan Wallace | 2024 | 3 | 69% | +9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Career PPR per game | 1.7 |
| Week-to-week variation | 2.1 |
| Boom rate | 4.5% |
| Bust rate | 63.6% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
His best game was Week 13 against NYJ — 4.8 PPR on 2 targets and a 6.5% target share, in a game that finished 24-27. His worst was Week 18 against NO at 0, on 0 targets, final score 19-17. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times.
His usage that season was worth 0.7 points per game. He scored 0.89, 21.6% above it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | BUF | 24-14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 13 | NYJ | 24-27 | 4.8 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 6.5% | 13% |
| 14 | SEA | 9-37 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3.6% | 9% |
| 15 | TB | 29-28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 16 | ARI | 26-19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 17 | LA | 27-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 18 | NO | 19-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 8% |
| Receptions | 3 |
| Targets | 3 |
| Receiving yards | 27 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 0.89 |
| Yards per target | 9 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 5 |
| Snap share | 4.71% |
| Target share | 1.44% |
| Air-yards share | 0.73% |
| WOPR | 0.027 |
| RACR | 0.299 |
| Average depth of target | 2.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2.3 |
| Total YAC | 20 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.13 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 545 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Kyle Pitts | 22.78% |
| Drake London | 21.62% |
| Bijan Robinson | 19.88% |
| Darnell Mooney | 13.9% |
| David Sills | 6.95% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3.09% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 6 | 3 | 1.03 | 9 | 1.68% |
| Michael Penix | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 0% |
1 of his 7 games were blowouts, 22.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.4 in those and 0.96 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 12 against KC — 4.3 PPR on 3 targets and a 9.1% target share, in a game that finished 27-30. His worst was Week 9 against NO at -0.2, on 0 targets, final score 23-22. Across 5 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times.
His usage that season was worth 1.8 points per game. He scored 1.34, 5.6% below it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | NO | 23-22 | -0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 12 | KC | 27-30 | 4.3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 9.1% | 13% |
| 14 | PHI | 16-22 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | 15% |
| 15 | DAL | 14-30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 9% |
| 16 | ARI | 36-30 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 10% |
| Receptions | 4 |
| Targets | 4 |
| Receiving yards | 20 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.34 |
| Yards per target | 5 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 3.5 |
| Snap share | 12.4% |
| Target share | 2.42% |
| Air-yards share | -0.64% |
| WOPR | 0.032 |
| RACR | 0.234 |
| Average depth of target | -2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2 |
| Total YAC | 28 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 87.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.02 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.03 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.3% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.32 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.32 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.04 |
The offense threw it 545 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Xavier Legette | 16.25% |
| Adam Thielen | 11.99% |
| Diontae Johnson | 11.22% |
| David Moore | 11.03% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 10.44% |
| Jalen Coker | 8.9% |
His best game was Week 4 against NO — 15.6 PPR on 4 targets and a 13.3% target share, in a game that finished 26-9. His worst was Week 15 against GB at -0.1, on 0 targets, final score 34-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 16 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.1; in the 10 decided by more, 2.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 3.3 points per game. He scored 2.05, 19.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 20-17 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 9.4% | 26% |
| 2 | CHI | 27-17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 45% |
| 3 | PHI | 11-25 | 2.6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 16% | 21% |
| 4 | NO | 26-9 | 15.6 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 | 13.3% | 63% |
| 6 | DET | 6-20 | 2.3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 10.8% | 25% |
| 7 | ATL | 13-16 | 2.4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 7.3% | 26% |
| 8 | BUF | 18-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 16% |
| 9 | HOU | 37-39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 14% |
| 10 | TEN | 20-6 | 2.1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6.9% | 23% |
| 11 | SF | 14-27 | 1.7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.3% | 23% |
| 12 | IND | 20-27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 7% |
| 13 | CAR | 21-18 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3.7% | 21% |
| 14 | ATL | 29-25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 7% |
| 15 | GB | 34-20 | -0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 18% |
| 16 | JAX | 30-12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 19% |
| 17 | NO | 13-23 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.1% | 13% |
| 18 | CAR | 9-0 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.2% | 12% |
| Receptions | 17 |
| Targets | 25 |
| Receiving yards | 83 |
| Carries | 8 |
| Rushing yards | 56 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 2.05 |
| Yards per target | 3.32 |
| Catch rate | 68% |
| Yards per carry | 7 |
| Snap share | 22.29% |
| Target share | 4.65% |
| Air-yards share | 3.28% |
| WOPR | 0.092 |
| RACR | 0.222 |
| Average depth of target | 6.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.1 |
| Total YAC | 84 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 69.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.51 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.23 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.9% |
| End-zone target share | 5.9% |
| Red-zone carry share | 5.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.02 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.02 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.15 |
The offense threw it 568 times. He took 4.55% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mike Evans | 24.73% |
| Chris Godwin | 23.64% |
| Rachaad White | 12.73% |
| Trey Palmer | 12.36% |
| Cade Otton | 12.18% |
| Deven Thompkins ← | 4.55% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 44.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.8 in those and 1.07 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 18 against ATL — 8.2 PPR on 9 targets and a 27.3% target share, in a game that finished 17-30. His worst was Week 17 against CAR at 0, on 0 targets, final score 30-24. Across 5 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 4 times.
His usage that season was worth 8.6 points per game. He scored 2.16, 36.8% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | SF | 7-35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 15 | CIN | 23-34 | 2.6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2.4% | 18% |
| 16 | ARI | 19-16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 17 | CAR | 30-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 12% |
| 18 | ATL | 17-30 | 8.2 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 0 | 27.3% | 84% |
| Receptions | 5 |
| Targets | 10 |
| Receiving yards | 32 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 26 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 2.16 |
| Yards per target | 3.2 |
| Catch rate | 50% |
| Yards per carry | 13 |
| Snap share | 23.8% |
| Target share | 5.94% |
| Air-yards share | 8.2% |
| WOPR | 0.146 |
| RACR | 0.416 |
| Average depth of target | 7.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0 |
| Total YAC | 32 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 57.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.2 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.4 |
The offense threw it 751 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Godwin | 19.64% |
| Mike Evans | 17.57% |
| Leonard Fournette | 11.48% |
| Russell Gage | 9.68% |
| Cade Otton | 8.99% |
| Rachaad White | 8.02% |
1 of his 5 games were blowouts, 0% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0 in those and 0 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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