WR · BUF · GWTTKB

Gabe Davis — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.15 points per game in 2025, usage worth 5.1.

26 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Buffalo Bills returns 3 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, hc, oc. Josh Allen at quarterback, Joe Brady as head coach, Pete Carmichael Jr. calling it. The offense projects to 31.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 29.2 rushes.

In: Kyle Allen (qb2), DJ Moore (wr1), Skyler Bell (wr4), Trent Sherfield (wr7). Out: Curtis Samuel (wr4).

The projected target split across the offense:

DJ Moore17.1%
Khalil Shakir16.8%
Dalton Kincaid14.4%
Keon Coleman11.7%
James Cook9.4%
Dawson Knox7.4%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: This is a high powered offense centered around Josh Allen & James Cook. Over the past few years, the Bills have struggled to surround Allen with the weapons he needs in the passsing game. Kincaid HAS NOT made the leap or returned his 1st round draft capital despite what people say. The move to get DJ Moore was very intentional & GM Brandon Beane believes Moore is a locked in WR1 for Buffalo. Shakir is going to be a strong contributor but the DJ Moore trade likely hurts his value.

Key additions: Bills traded a 2nd round pick for to Bears for WR DJ Moore & extended on 4 year deal. C Lloyd Cushenberry 1 year deal. G/C Austin Corbett from Panthers (starter). WR Trent Sherfield from Minnesota (depth).

Key departures: David Edwards (starting LG), WR Curtis Samuel was released. Back up QB Mitch Trubisky signed with the Titans.

Notes: The Bills fired Sean McDermott following their loss to Denver in the playoffs in 2025. Joe Brady (standout OC) was promoted to HCThe Keon Coleman breakout may not ever happen. Bills traded for DJ Moore from Bears & under contract for 4 years. Large opportunity to emerge as main pass catcher in offense. Shakir reliable but no true ceiling yet. Allen 30 but still elite. Bills draft Skyler Bell WR from UConn 6 foor 192 LB 4.40 second 40 yard dash. Large opportunity for Bell in long run. Kincaid health remains a question. Opted to not get PCL surgery AGAIN & new HC Joe Brady says they will manage pain throughout 2026. James Cook will continue to produce as a top 10 PPR fantasy back IF he stays healthy. Very underrated runner.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Josh Allen returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.1 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.5 att/g; New OC Pete Carmichael Jr. — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Joe Brady.

Offensive environment: BUF rates 26.9 against a league average of 23, 3.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-2.3 · harder
Weeks 1–6-4.4 · harder
Weeks 12–17-1.6 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+3.2 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Marquez Valdes-Scantling20246.576%-42.7%
Kendrick Bourne20245.474%+36%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling20233.573%+32.9%
Hunter Renfrow20233.571%-46.5%
K.J. Osborn20242.771%-15.1%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2020, round 4, pick 128 by BUF
CollegeCentral Florida
Age at draft21

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game9.1
Week-to-week variation0.9
Boom rate26.7%
Bust rate35%
Games missed per season0.2
Injury historyKnee
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score-0.44

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · BUF · 6 games

His best game was Week 18 against NYJ — 15.1 PPR on 7 targets and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 35-8. His worst was Week 17 against PHI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 12-13. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.4; in the 3 decided by more, 7.9. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.1 points per game. He scored 5.15, 4.5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.18 expected, a gap of -1.2.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
11TB44-3273440013.3%
12HOU19-233.2122206.3%
13PIT26-71.512508.7%
14CIN39-344.1222107.4%
17PHI12-13001003%
18NYJ35-815.15741125%

Production

Receptions12
Targets18
Receiving yards129
Touchdowns1
Points per game5.15
Yards per target7.17
Catch rate66.67%

Role

Target share10.62%
Air-yards share17.35%
WOPR0.282
RACR0.69

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game1.72

Scoring position

Red-zone targets6
Red-zone target share7.2%
End-zone target share8.3%
Expected receiving TDs2.18
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-1.18

Who else ate

The offense threw it 495 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Khalil Shakir19.83%
Keon Coleman12.32%
Dawson Knox10.23%
Dalton Kincaid10.23%
James Cook8.35%
Josh Palmer7.72%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Josh Allen5113.1687.74%
Mitchell Trubisky1715.15.8625%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 6 games were blowouts, 53.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.3 in those and 2.43 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · JAX · 10 games

His best game was Week 6 against CHI — 21.5 PPR on 8 targets and a 22.9% target share, in a game that finished 16-35. His worst was Week 8 against GB at 0, on 0 targets, final score 27-30. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.2; in the 4 decided by more, 7.2. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 8.3 points per game. He scored 5.39, 27.6% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.95 expected, a gap of -1.9.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1MIA17-209.23362015.8%
2CLE13-187.33743025.9%
3BUF10-473.82618013.6%
4HOU20-240.815-2015.6%
5IND37-344.83438011.8%
6CHI16-3521.55845222.9%
7NE32-162.31213010%
8GB27-30000000%
10MIN7-122.91419019%
11DET6-521.3133010.7%

Production

Receptions20
Targets42
Receiving yards239
Touchdowns2
Points per game5.39
Yards per target5.69
Catch rate47.62%

Role

Target share14.53%
Air-yards share21.15%
WOPR0.365
RACR0.461

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game-0.41

Scoring position

Red-zone targets10
Red-zone target share15.9%
End-zone target share20.6%
Expected receiving TDs2.95
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-1.95

Who else ate

The offense threw it 546 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Brian Thomas25.48%
Evan Engram12.26%
Brenton Strange10.15%
Travis Etienne9.96%
Parker Washington9.77%
Christian Kirk9%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Trevor Lawrence8356.216.214.45%
Mac Jones272.13.1414.85%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 10 games were blowouts, 49.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.87 in those and 4.17 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · BUF · 16 games

His best game was Week 8 against TB — 23.7 PPR on 12 targets and a 30.8% target share, in a game that finished 24-18. His worst was Week 18 against MIA at 0, on 2 targets, final score 21-14. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.6; in the 4 decided by more, 11.7. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 8.7 points per game. He scored 10.09, 15.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 2.91 expected, a gap of 2.1.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1NYJ16-225.22432010.3%
2LV38-1021.26792119.4%
3WAS37-310.31435112.5%
4MIA48-2015.13361112%
5JAX20-252268100122.2%
6NYG14-93.13421013.8%
7NE25-291.6156012.8%
8TB24-1823.791287130.8%
9CIN18-24002006.3%
10DEN22-249.62656024%
12PHI34-3722.5612105124.5%
14KC20-17002005.6%
15DAL31-10001007.7%
16LAC24-222346130128.6%
17NE27-214.12321010.7%
18MIA21-14002005.4%

Production

Receptions45
Targets81
Receiving yards746
Carries1
Rushing yards-2
Touchdowns7
Points per game10.09
Yards per target9.21
Catch rate55.56%
Yards per carry-2

Role

Target share15.41%
Air-yards share27.16%
WOPR0.422
RACR0.545

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game1.51
Rushing EPA per game-0.06

Scoring position

Red-zone targets12
Red-zone target share16.2%
End-zone target share33.3%
Expected receiving TDs2.91
Actual receiving TDs5
Receiving TD luck2.09

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game43 of 51
Yards per target18 of 51
Target share49 of 51
Air-yards share34 of 51

Who else ate

The offense threw it 579 times. He took 14.86% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Stefon Diggs29.36%
Dalton Kincaid16.7%
Gabe Davis 14.86%
James Cook9.91%
Khalil Shakir8.26%
Dawson Knox6.61%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 28.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.65 in those and 9.57 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · BUF · 15 games

His best game was Week 5 against PIT — 32.1 PPR on 6 targets and a 16.7% target share, in a game that finished 38-3. His worst was Week 4 against BAL at 2.3, on 3 targets, final score 23-20. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.7; in the 6 decided by more, 14.1. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 10.7 points per game. He scored 11.44, 10.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1LA31-1018.84588116.1%
3MIA19-216.73637010.5%
4BAL23-202.3131308.8%
5PIT38-332.136171216.7%
6KC24-2016.43674115.8%
8GB27-175.52735028%
9NYJ17-205.32533015.2%
10MIN30-3321.361093124.4%
11CLE31-2311.85768029.2%
12DET28-257.84538012.8%
13NE24-109.52715121.2%
14NYJ20-126.13431014.8%
15MIA32-299.64656015.8%
16CHI35-1311.53645124%
18NE35-236.931039032.3%

Production

Receptions48
Targets93
Receiving yards836
Touchdowns7
Points per game11.44
Yards per target8.99
Catch rate51.61%

Role

Target share19.04%
Air-yards share28.96%
WOPR0.487
RACR0.61

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0.98

Scoring position

Red-zone targets17
Red-zone target share17.3%
End-zone target share23.1%
Expected receiving TDs3.34
Actual receiving TDs3
Receiving TD luck-0.34

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game35 of 51
Yards per target13 of 51
Target share38 of 51
Air-yards share27 of 51

Who else ate

The offense threw it 574 times. He took 16.88% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Stefon Diggs27.95%
Gabe Davis 16.88%
Isaiah McKenzie11.8%
Dawson Knox11.8%
Devin Singletary9.44%
James Cook5.81%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 36.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.8 in those and 9.7 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2021 · BUF · 15 games

His best game was Week 15 against CAR — 25.5 PPR on 7 targets and a 22.6% target share, in a game that finished 31-14. His worst was Week 9 against JAX at 0, on 2 targets, final score 6-9. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.6; in the 10 decided by more, 8.3. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7.7 points per game. He scored 8.39, 44.3% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 9 against 5.07 expected, a gap of 3.9.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1PIT16-23122540110.4%
3WAS43-213.3112302.3%
4HOU40-0001003.2%
5KC38-202.6111604.2%
6TEN31-344.5222504.4%
8MIA26-1112.94529112.2%
9JAX6-9002004.4%
10NYJ45-1713.533105010.7%
11IND15-414.72427010.3%
12NO31-66.72347011.5%
13NE10-14112430113.3%
14TB27-3315.35843115.7%
15CAR31-1425.55785222.6%
17ATL29-1573340012.5%
18NYJ27-106.931439031.1%

Production

Receptions35
Targets63
Receiving yards549
Touchdowns6
Points per game8.39
Yards per target8.71
Catch rate55.56%

Role

Target share11.25%
Air-yards share17.29%
WOPR0.289
RACR0.835

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game1.38

Scoring position

Red-zone targets21
Red-zone target share16.4%
End-zone target share19.7%
Expected receiving TDs5.07
Actual receiving TDs9
Receiving TD luck3.93

Who else ate

The offense threw it 655 times. He took 10.13% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Stefon Diggs26.37%
Cole Beasley18.01%
Emmanuel Sanders11.58%
Dawson Knox11.41%
Gabe Davis 10.13%
Devin Singletary8.04%

Blowouts against close games

8 of his 15 games were blowouts, 50.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.9 in those and 8.56 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · BUF · 16 games

His best game was Week 17 against MIA — 18.7 PPR on 5 targets and a 13.5% target share, in a game that finished 56-26. His worst was Week 10 against ARI at 0, on 3 targets, final score 30-32. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.2; in the 10 decided by more, 10.6. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6.9 points per game. He scored 8.56, 13.5% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1NYJ27-173.6221604.4%
2MIA31-287.611612.9%
3LA35-3212.14481012.5%
4LV30-239.6112613.1%
5TEN16-4210.85958020%
6KC17-261.711704%
7NYJ18-102.1131107.3%
8NE24-210020011.1%
9SEA44-34174570113.2%
10ARI30-32003006.7%
12LAC27-1716.93479116.7%
13SF34-2415.83468110.8%
14PIT26-1510.93819119%
15DEN48-193.82518013.2%
16NE38-96.33533013.2%
17MIA56-2618.725107113.5%

Production

Receptions35
Targets62
Receiving yards599
Carries1
Touchdowns7
Points per game8.56
Yards per target9.66
Catch rate56.45%

Role

Target share10.72%
Air-yards share19.94%
WOPR0.302
RACR0.861

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0.84
Rushing EPA per game-0.05

Scoring position

Red-zone targets16
Red-zone target share15.4%
End-zone target share28.9%
Red-zone carry share1.2%
Expected receiving TDs4.42
Actual receiving TDs4
Receiving TD luck-0.42
Expected rushing TDs0.13

Who else ate

The offense threw it 595 times. He took 10.88% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Stefon Diggs29.12%
Cole Beasley18.77%
Gabe Davis 10.88%
John Brown9.12%
Devin Singletary8.77%
Dawson Knox7.72%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 28.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.9 in those and 5.23 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

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