Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 5.6.
26 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| ESPN | 170 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| FFA | 460 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR110 |
Our board has him at 51.9 points, 3.2 per game — 20.4 catches, 249 yards, 1.1 TDs. That is WR6, 337 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2 points per game to a ceiling of 7.8, with the median at 3.2. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 37%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 337. We rank him 167 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Cleveland Browns returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, hc, oc. Deshaun Watson at quarterback, Todd Monken as head coach, Travis Switzer calling it. The offense projects to 32.2 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 25.9 rushes.
In: Deshaun Watson (qb), KC Concepcion (wr2), Denzel Boston (wr4), Tylan Wallace (wr5), Ahmani Marshall (rb4), Jack Stoll (te2). Out: Dillon Gabriel (qb), Jamari Thrash (wr3), David Njoku (te1).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 8.5%, with a bear case of 7.9% and a bull case of 9.5% and a full range of 7.6% to 10.5%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Jerry Jeudy | 17.2% |
| KC Concepcion | 16.6% |
| Harold Fannin Jr | 15.8% |
| Denzel Boston | 14.9% |
| Cedric Tillman ← | 8.5% |
| Quinshon Judkins | 7.6% |
What the offense looks like: Historically, this has been a brutal offense to own in fantasy. Other than TE and RB, not much fantasy relevance has come out of Cleveland in some time. Things could change with the new O line & KC & Boston arriving. Cleveland HAS to figure out the QB situation before we can have full confidence in any of these players, but the pieces may be falling in place for multiple guys to be weekly starters.
Key additions: MASSIVE OVERHAUL for browns line this offseason: Brought in LG Zion Johnson, Center Elgton Jenkins, RT Tytus Howard, & drafted LT Spencer Fano in the 1st round. Its a completely new unit under HC Todd Monken.
Key departures: TE David Njoku left the Browns & is still a free agent. Only key loss.
Notes: Browns drafted OT Spencer Fano RD 1 & WR KC Concepcion RD 1 in 2026 draft. Round 2 they took Denzel Boston. Concepcion & Boston can have fantasy value IF Cleveland figures out QB position. Browns fired HC Stefanski & hired Jesse Minter. Jerry Jeudy will likely struggle to have real fantasy value with the new rookies introduced. Harold Fannin has strong value with David Njoku leaving Cleveland. Njoku is still a free agent & COULD potentially return to Cleveland but it is unlikely. RB Quinshon Judkins was a real star of the Browns offense in 2025 and far outperformed Dylan Sampson. Judkins should be 100% recovered from his season ending leg injury he suffered in 2025 by week 1 2026.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Deshaun Watson, avg 29.7 att/g over 2024,2023; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.2 att/g; New OC Travis Switzer — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Todd Monken.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~24, prior share 10.8%, same team, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 9.2%, p25-p75 [8.0%, 11.5%], tails [7.4%, 13.7%]. Closest comps: Cedric Tillman 2023→2024 (CLE: 11.3%→14.7%); Terrace Marshall 2022→2023 (CAR: 12.2%→11.8%); Marvin Mims Jr. 2023→2024 (DEN: 7.7%→10.6%).
self-anchored 45% to own 10.8% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 9.2%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: CLE rates 18.5 against a league average of 23, 4.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +4.5 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +6 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +5.2 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +8.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4 | Jerry Jeudy | +13.3 |
| 2023 | 2 | Marquise Goodwin | +1.5 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -35.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrace Marshall | 2023 | 4.1 | 75% | -11.3% |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 2020 | 7.9 | 73% | +14.8% |
| John Metchie III | 2024 | 5.5 | 70% | +13.2% |
| Van Jefferson | 2022 | 7.9 | 69% | -30.2% |
| Calvin Austin III | 2024 | 7.1 | 69% | +21.5% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 3, pick 74 by CLE |
| College | Tennessee |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 213 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54s |
| Vertical | 37″ |
| Broad jump | 128″ |
| Career PPR per game | 6.3 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1.1 |
| Boom rate | 13% |
| Bust rate | 30.4% |
| Games missed per season | 2 |
| Injury history | Hip, Concussion |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.67 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 1 against CIN — 16.2 PPR on 8 targets and a 19% target share, in a game that finished 16-17. His worst was Week 13 against SF at 0, on 1 targets, final score 8-26. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.8; in the 4 decided by more, 3.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.6 points per game. He scored 5, 9.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 16-17 | 16.2 | 5 | 8 | 52 | 1 | 19% | 88% |
| 2 | BAL | 17-41 | 10.2 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 1 | 17.1% | 95% |
| 3 | GB | 13-10 | 5.6 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 9.1% | 74% |
| 4 | DET | 10-34 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5.9% | 22% |
| 10 | NYJ | 20-27 | 3.1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 12.5% | 73% |
| 11 | BAL | 16-23 | 8.2 | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 16% | 78% |
| 12 | LV | 24-10 | 1.5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 16.7% | 53% |
| 13 | SF | 8-26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.3% | 63% |
| 14 | TEN | 29-31 | 3.3 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 7.9% | 64% |
| 16 | BUF | 20-23 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3.7% | 47% |
| 17 | PIT | 13-6 | 5.2 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 | 4.3% | 58% |
| 18 | CIN | 20-18 | 3.3 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 9.5% | 77% |
| Receptions | 21 |
| Targets | 39 |
| Receiving yards | 270 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 5 |
| Yards per target | 6.92 |
| Catch rate | 53.85% |
| Snap share | 66% |
| Target share | 10.5% |
| Air-yards share | 16.69% |
| WOPR | 0.276 |
| RACR | 0.737 |
| Average depth of target | 11.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.9 |
| Total YAC | 62 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 71.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.54 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 7.3% |
| End-zone target share | 12.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.1 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.9 |
The offense threw it 557 times. He took 7.49% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 20.54% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 20.35% |
| David Njoku | 9.21% |
| Isaiah Bond | 8.45% |
| Dylan Sampson | 7.68% |
| Cedric Tillman ← | 7.49% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 7 | 15 | 3.33 | 10.2 | 8.91% |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 20 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 12.78% |
| Dillon Gabriel | 1 | 4 | 3.1 | 2.75 | 12.5% |
3 of his 12 games were blowouts, 19.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.93 in those and 5.84 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 8 against BAL — 28.9 PPR on 9 targets and a 22% target share, in a game that finished 29-24. His worst was Week 6 against PHI at -0.5, on 0 targets, final score 16-20. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.7; in the 3 decided by more, 9.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.6 points per game. He scored 8.93, 7.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 17-33 | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2.3% | 34% |
| 2 | JAX | 18-13 | 1.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6.1% | 36% |
| 3 | NYG | 15-21 | 1.4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5.7% | 33% |
| 6 | PHI | 16-20 | -0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 37% |
| 7 | CIN | 14-21 | 18.1 | 8 | 12 | 81 | 0 | 25% | 82% |
| 8 | BAL | 29-24 | 28.9 | 7 | 9 | 99 | 2 | 22% | 90% |
| 9 | LAC | 10-27 | 19.5 | 6 | 11 | 75 | 1 | 23.9% | 96% |
| 11 | NO | 14-35 | 7.7 | 3 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 17.8% | 96% |
| 12 | PIT | 24-19 | 2.8 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 14.8% | 53% |
| Receptions | 29 |
| Targets | 49 |
| Receiving yards | 339 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | -5 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 8.93 |
| Yards per target | 6.92 |
| Catch rate | 59.18% |
| Yards per carry | -5 |
| Snap share | 61.89% |
| Target share | 13.07% |
| Air-yards share | 15.46% |
| WOPR | 0.303 |
| RACR | 0.526 |
| Average depth of target | 11.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.1 |
| Total YAC | 104 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 83.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.14 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.27 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.2% |
| End-zone target share | 6.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.22 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.22 |
The offense threw it 661 times. He took 7.73% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jerry Jeudy | 22.87% |
| Elijah Moore | 16.09% |
| David Njoku | 15.3% |
| Jordan Akins | 9.15% |
| Amari Cooper | 8.36% |
| Cedric Tillman ← | 7.73% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 4 | 5 | 0.85 | 1.8 | 3.52% |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 32 | 14.72 | 7.78 | 19.63% |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 1 | 12 | 18.1 | 6.75 | 25% |
2 of his 9 games were blowouts, 33.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.6 in those and 8.65 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 12 against DEN — 9.5 PPR on 5 targets and a 12.8% target share, in a game that finished 12-29. His worst was Week 10 against BAL at 0, on 3 targets, final score 33-31. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.9; in the 7 decided by more, 4.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.9 points per game. He scored 4.02, 41.5% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.43 expected, a gap of -1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BAL | 3-28 | 1.5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8.8% | 20% |
| 9 | ARI | 27-0 | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3.6% | 74% |
| 10 | BAL | 33-31 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9.4% | 85% |
| 11 | PIT | 13-10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4.9% | 88% |
| 12 | DEN | 12-29 | 9.5 | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 | 12.8% | 89% |
| 13 | LA | 19-36 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 14.6% | 93% |
| 14 | JAX | 31-27 | 4.3 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 9.3% | 61% |
| 15 | CHI | 20-17 | 9.2 | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 18.2% | 72% |
| 16 | HOU | 36-22 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 4.7% | 73% |
| 17 | NYJ | 37-20 | 1.8 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 13.8% | 95% |
| 18 | CIN | 14-31 | 7.3 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 24% | 64% |
| Receptions | 21 |
| Targets | 44 |
| Receiving yards | 224 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 4.02 |
| Yards per target | 5.09 |
| Catch rate | 47.73% |
| Yards per carry | 8 |
| Snap share | 74% |
| Target share | 11.28% |
| Air-yards share | 12.94% |
| WOPR | 0.26 |
| RACR | 0.545 |
| Average depth of target | 10.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.5 |
| Total YAC | 88 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 23.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -2.41 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.7% |
| End-zone target share | 15.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.43 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.43 |
The offense threw it 624 times. He took 7.37% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amari Cooper | 21.44% |
| David Njoku | 20.6% |
| Elijah Moore | 17.42% |
| Jerome Ford | 10.55% |
| Cedric Tillman ← | 7.37% |
| Jordan Akins | 3.85% |
He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 5 | 24 | 4.52 | 4.83 | 12.12% |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 3 | 10 | 4.33 | 6.2 | 8.83% |
| Deshaun Watson | 2 | 4 | 0.65 | 0.75 | 6.5% |
| Jeff Driskel | 1 | 6 | 7.3 | 7.17 | 24% |
6 of his 11 games were blowouts, 57.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.23 in those and 3.88 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Cedric Tillman →