Charts· Books vs. reality

Implied team total vs. points per game (2026, Weeks 1–9)

All 32 NFL teams through Week 9 of 2026: implied team total across, points per game up, split at the averages. Expected to score, did (top right): Bills, Lions and 49ers. Low-scoring, as expected (bottom left): Dolphins, Titans and Browns.

Implied total from the closing spread and total

Every team on the chart

Every team on the chart, grouped by corner, the same order as the caption.

TeamImplied team totalPoints per game
Expected to score, did · top right
Bills27.332.0
Lions27.827.8
49ers26.429.4
Bengals25.830.0
Cowboys26.727.3
Jaguars24.328.6
Rams26.423.8
Bears24.426.8
Chiefs24.525.3
Texans23.026.1
Packers23.624.0
Patriots23.223.4
Outscoring the number · top left
Raiders21.526.4
Panthers22.424.9
Saints21.923.1
Falling short · bottom right
Ravens23.721.0
Seahawks23.722.4
Low-scoring, as expected · bottom left
Dolphins17.815.8
Titans17.218.0
Browns18.017.9
Chargers20.815.1
Eagles20.016.4
Cardinals20.619.8
Jets20.420.2
Vikings22.518.3
Colts21.320.4
Giants20.322.8
Commanders21.221.5
Buccaneers20.922.4
Falcons21.920.9
Steelers21.122.5
Broncos22.322.0

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Minimums scale with the season (QBs 15 attempts a week, RBs 8 carries, WRs 5 targets, TEs 3). Expected points price every carry and target by where it happened. Built from the same data as the Charts gallery; every chart saves as a 1080 × 1350 post.