WR · MIA · GWTTKB

Cedrick Wilson — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 1.57 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 284.3, usage worth 2.6.

30 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 284.3
Consensus across 2 books, standard deviation 161.6, 228.5 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on sleeper, priciest on espn.
SLEEPER398.5
ESPN170
FFA608

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 24, pick 8 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankWR186
ADP standard deviation161.6 picks

The offense he plays in, 2026

Miami Dolphins returns 1 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, te1, hc, oc. Malik Willis at quarterback, Jeff Hafley as head coach, Bobby Slowik calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 26.1 rushes.

In: Malik Willis (qb), Caleb Douglas (wr1), Chris Bell (wr2), Jalen Tolbert (wr4), Tutu Atwell (wr5), Kevin Coleman Jr. (wr6), Terrace Marshall Jr. (wr7), Donovan Edwards (rb4), Will Kacmarek (te2). Out: Tua Tagovailoa (qb), Tyreek Hill (wr1), Jaylen Waddle (wr2), Theo Wease Jr. (wr4), Darren Waller (te1).

The projected target split across the offense:

De'Von Achane15%
Greg Dulcich14%
Tutu Atwell10.4%
Caleb Douglas9.3%
Malik Washington9.2%
Chris Bell9.1%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

Key additions: QB Malik Willis signed to 3 year deal (was with Green Bay), RG Kadyn Proctor RD 1 RG, WR Caleb Douglas 3rd round draft pick, WR Chris Bell 3rd round draft pick, signed WR Jalen Tolbert, signed WR Tutu Atwell, signed WR Terrace Marshall Jr

Key departures: Tua Tagovailoa was released, Tyreek Hill was released, WR Jaylen Waddle was traded, and TE Darren Waller remains a free agent.

Notes: Dolphins sign Malik Willis in free agency to 3 year deal. Mobile QB with high fantasy upside. Offense skill positions (other than Achance) now worst in NFL. Unsure who starting WR will be. Dolphins drafted Caleb Douglas & Chris Bell (both have very good potential). Malik Washington is not good, Tutu Atwell unlikely to be highly productive, Terrace Marshall & Turpin also signed. Both are also not good. Greg Dulcich does have potential if Willis can get the offense working De'Von Achane landed HUGE contract for 4 years 64 million keeping him in Miami through 2030.

How the volume number was reached: New QB Malik Willis, avg 8.9 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Bobby Slowik — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jeff Hafley.

Offensive environment: MIA rates 19.5 against a league average of 23, 3.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-3 · harder
Weeks 1–6-4.8 · harder
Weeks 12–17-5.1 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-13.9 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +52% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Braxton Berrios20233.669%-45.5%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling20233.567%+32.9%
Justin Watson20244.266%-17.4%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling20246.566%-42.7%
Isaiah McKenzie20231.664%-46.2%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. From 0 to 821, peaking at 1,935.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2018, round 6, pick 208 by DAL
CollegeBoise St.
Age at draft22
Height6′2″
Weight197 lb
40-yard dash4.55s
Vertical37″
Broad jump121″
3-cone6.89s
Shuttle4.23s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game5.3
Week-to-week variation1.1
Boom rate15.4%
Bust rate40.4%
Games missed per season0.8
Injury historyAnkle, Hip, Shoulder, Knee

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · MIA · 6 games

His best game was Week 13 against NO — 2.6 PPR on 2 targets and a 10% target share, in a game that finished 21-17. His worst was Week 18 against NE at 0, on 2 targets, final score 10-38. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.6 points per game. He scored 1.57, 39% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
8ATL34-101.211203.7%
9BAL6-281.711702.7%
13NO21-172.61216010%
16CIN21-452.1111103.4%
17TB20-171.812809.1%
18NE10-38002008.3%

Production

Receptions5
Targets9
Receiving yards44
Touchdowns0
Points per game1.57
Yards per target4.89
Catch rate55.56%

Role

Target share6.2%
Air-yards share6.28%
WOPR0.137
RACR0.715

Efficiency

Average depth of target7.7
Yards after catch per reception5
Yards before catch per reception3.8
Total YAC25
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted68.7
Receiving EPA per game-0.37

Scoring position

Red-zone targets3
Red-zone target share4.7%
End-zone target share8.7%
Expected receiving TDs0.73
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.73

Who else ate

The offense threw it 479 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jaylen Waddle22.22%
De'Von Achane18.89%
Malik Washington14.44%
Darren Waller7.56%
Greg Dulcich7.33%
Tyreek Hill6.44%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Tua Tagovailoa341.836.255.47%
Quinn Ewers351.33.86.93%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 6 games were blowouts, 53.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.25 in those and 2.2 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · NO · 13 games

His best game was Week 7 against DEN — 17.7 PPR on 7 targets and a 17.9% target share, in a game that finished 10-33. His worst was Week 5 against KC at 0, on 0 targets, final score 13-26. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.7; in the 7 decided by more, 4.2. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4.8 points per game. He scored 4, 8.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1CAR47-10000000%
2DAL44-19000000%
3PHI12-151.311304.3%
5KC13-26000000%
6TB27-514.8232807.9%
7DEN10-3317.76757117.9%
9CAR22-235.42334010.7%
13LA14-212.9111902.9%
14NYG14-112.8111803.2%
15WAS19-204.8401013.4%
16GB0-342.3111303.6%
17LV10-254.73417011.8%
18TB19-275.23522012.8%

Production

Receptions20
Targets27
Receiving yards211
Touchdowns2
Points per game4
Yards per target7.81
Catch rate74.07%

Role

Target share6.04%
Air-yards share5.46%
WOPR0.13
RACR0.695

Efficiency

Average depth of target7.3
Yards after catch per reception4.5
Yards before catch per reception6.1
Total YAC89
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted93.3
Receiving EPA per game0.2

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share2.3%
End-zone target share0%
Expected receiving TDs0.14
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.86

Who else ate

The offense threw it 551 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Alvin Kamara17.35%
Juwan Johnson12.87%
Chris Olave8.58%
Foster Moreau8.38%
Rashid Shaheed7.99%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling6.82%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Derek Carr761.7712.333.01%
Spencer Rattler6216.596.529.57%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 13 games were blowouts, 47.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.96 in those and 3.74 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · MIA · 11 games

His best game was Week 17 against BAL — 10.7 PPR on 4 targets and a 11.1% target share, in a game that finished 19-56. His worst was Week 15 against NYJ at 2.2, on 3 targets, final score 30-0. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.2; in the 6 decided by more, 6.4. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6.4 points per game. He scored 6.33, 1.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
4BUF20-482.6121605.9%
5NYG31-169.24452014.3%
7PHI17-316.8234809.4%
8NE31-177.111112.3%
9KC14-2110.11531115.2%
11LV20-135.33423011.1%
14TEN27-2852430012.1%
15NYJ30-02.2232011.5%
16DAL22-207.23542013.9%
17BAL19-5610.72427111.1%
18BUF14-213.41324011.1%

Production

Receptions22
Targets38
Receiving yards296
Touchdowns3
Points per game6.33
Yards per target7.79
Catch rate57.89%

Role

Target share10.72%
Air-yards share15.22%
WOPR0.266
RACR0.725

Efficiency

Average depth of target11.3
Yards after catch per reception2.6
Yards before catch per reception10.9
Total YAC57
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted98.1
Receiving EPA per game0.04

Scoring position

Red-zone targets5
Red-zone target share6.9%
End-zone target share13.3%
Expected receiving TDs1.81
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck0.19

Who else ate

The offense threw it 566 times. He took 7.13% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyreek Hill32.08%
Jaylen Waddle19.51%
Durham Smythe8.07%
Cedrick Wilson 7.13%
De'Von Achane6.94%
Braxton Berrios6.19%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 11 games were blowouts, 22.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.17 in those and 6.2 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · MIA · 13 games

His best game was Week 1 against NE — 4.8 PPR on 2 targets and a 6.5% target share, in a game that finished 20-7. His worst was Week 17 against NE at 0, on 0 targets, final score 21-23. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.4; in the 5 decided by more, 3. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.3 points per game. He scored 2.03, 11.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1NE20-74.8222006.5%
2BAL42-38001002%
5NYJ17-4042420012.5%
7PIT16-10000000%
8DET31-27001002.9%
9CHI35-324.3222306.9%
10CLE39-171.711703%
12HOU30-154.6232607.9%
13SF17-33000000%
14LAC17-233.9221908.3%
15BUF29-323.1122106.7%
16GB20-26000000%
17NE21-23000000%

Production

Receptions12
Targets18
Receiving yards136
Carries1
Rushing yards8
Touchdowns0
Points per game2.03
Yards per target7.56
Catch rate66.67%
Yards per carry8

Role

Target share4.36%
Air-yards share5.25%
WOPR0.102
RACR0.669

Efficiency

Average depth of target10.4
Yards after catch per reception3.8
Yards before catch per reception7.6
Total YAC45
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted89.1
Receiving EPA per game0.53
Rushing EPA per game0.04

Who else ate

The offense threw it 584 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyreek Hill31.54%
Jaylen Waddle21.71%
Mike Gesicki9.65%
Trent Sherfield9.46%
Raheem Mostert7.79%
Jeffery Wilson4.45%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Tua Tagovailoa11142.048.294.02%
Skylar Thompson24256.25%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 13 games were blowouts, 21.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.85 in those and 1.41 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2021 · DAL · 14 games

His best game was Week 18 against PHI — 28.9 PPR on 6 targets and a 21.4% target share, in a game that finished 51-26. His worst was Week 16 against WAS at 3, on 3 targets, final score 56-14. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11; in the 6 decided by more, 10. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 8.2 points per game. He scored 10.56, 29.3% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1TB29-315.4332405.3%
2LAC20-174.5222007.4%
3PHI41-219.72417116%
4CAR36-2811223019.1%
5NYG44-205.98113503.1%
6NE35-298.24742014.3%
8MIN20-1618.8338417.3%
9DEN16-304.82528012.8%
11KC9-197.64736016.7%
12LV33-3617.4710104021.3%
14WAS27-203.8221805.1%
16WAS56-143231007.3%
17ARI22-2518.746635115.8%
18PHI51-2628.956119221.4%

Production

Receptions45
Targets61
Receiving yards602
Carries2
Rushing yards11
Touchdowns6
Points per game10.56
Yards per target9.87
Catch rate73.77%
Yards per carry5.5

Role

Target share11.64%
Air-yards share13.64%
WOPR0.268
RACR1.162

Efficiency

Average depth of target9.5
Yards after catch per reception5.6
Yards before catch per reception7.7
Total YAC254
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted130.6
Receiving EPA per game2.56
Rushing EPA per game0.07

Scoring position

Red-zone targets10
Red-zone target share9%
End-zone target share10%
Expected receiving TDs2.08
Actual receiving TDs3
Receiving TD luck0.92

Who else ate

The offense threw it 647 times. He took 9.59% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

CeeDee Lamb18.87%
Amari Cooper16.35%
Dalton Schultz16.35%
Ezekiel Elliott10.22%
Michael Gallup9.75%
Cedrick Wilson 9.59%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Dak Prescott13589.928.9311.97%
Cooper Rush1318.8287.3%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 14 games were blowouts, 32.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.89 in those and 10.98 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2020 · DAL · 13 games

His best game was Week 3 against SEA — 27.7 PPR on 7 targets and a 12.5% target share, in a game that finished 31-38. His worst was Week 8 against PHI at -1.1, on 2 targets, final score 9-23. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.4; in the 5 decided by more, 1.6. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.1 points per game. He scored 3.97, 2.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.56 expected, a gap of -1.6.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1LA17-20000000%
2ATL40-39000000%
3SEA31-3827.757107212.5%
4CLE38-496.43634010.3%
5NYG37-3410.644422112.1%
6ARI10-383231005.8%
8PHI9-23-1.102005.3%
9PIT19-241.613608.1%
11MIN31-281.712706.5%
12WAS16-41-0.100000%
15SF41-330.4800000%
16PHI37-17000000%
17NYG19-231.311302.3%

Production

Receptions17
Targets28
Receiving yards189
Carries3
Rushing yards-12
Touchdowns3
Points per game3.97
Yards per target6.75
Catch rate60.71%
Yards per carry-4

Role

Target share4.84%
Air-yards share4.85%
WOPR0.106
RACR0.395

Efficiency

Average depth of target8.7
Yards after catch per reception6.6
Yards before catch per reception4.5
Total YAC113
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted89.7
Receiving EPA per game0.32
Rushing EPA per game-0.44

Scoring position

Red-zone targets6
Red-zone target share7.3%
End-zone target share6.1%
Expected receiving TDs1.56
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-1.56

Who else ate

The offense threw it 638 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Amari Cooper21.17%
CeeDee Lamb18.08%
Michael Gallup17.1%
Dalton Schultz14.5%
Ezekiel Elliott11.56%
Tony Pollard6.51%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Andy Dalton661.063.332.43%
Dak Prescott5178.959.596.98%
Ben DiNucci12-1.105.3%
Garrett Gilbert131.628.1%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 13 games were blowouts, 5.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0.97 in those and 5.43 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

Ask the Coach about Cedrick Wilson →
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