Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 3.95 points per game in 2025, usage worth 5.5.
33 years old · 11 seasons of experience · 2015 draft class
Tennessee Titans returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, te1, hc, oc. Cam Ward at quarterback, Robert Saleh as head coach, Brian Daboll calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 24.5 rushes.
In: Mitch Trubisky (qb2), Carnell Tate (wr1), Wan'Dale Robinson (wr2), Nicholas Singleton (rb3), Michael Carter (rb4), Daniel Bellinger (te2). Out: Tyler Lockett (wr4), Julius Chestnut (rb3), Chig Okonkwo (te1), Josh Whyle (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Carnell Tate | 18.3% |
| Calvin Ridley | 18.3% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 15.5% |
| Elic Ayomanor | 11.2% |
| Chimere Dike | 9.1% |
| Tyjae Spears | 8.9% |
What the offense looks like: It is an offense that could slowly be on the rise. It could QUICKLY be on the rise if Ward figures it out early in 2026 and could catch people off guard. Tate & Robinson are our primary targets. Ward is a great potential riser especially in SF. RB room is difficult to project, but Pollard it likely to be lead back in 2026 and could be a low end RB2 in fantasy.
Key additions: Titans HUGE adds to coaching staff that could turn this team aroud. HC Robert Saleh & former Giants (and QB whisperer) HC Brian Daboll head head to Tennessee and may a GREAT duo. Bring in WR Wan'Dale Robinson in free agency from NY (1000 yard slot WR last year) & draft WR Carnell Tate 4th overall. Beef up the O line with Austin Schlottmann & Volson. Drafted RB Nicholas Singleton in the 5th round (likely depth).
Key departures: HC Brian Callahan was fired after 1-5 start last season (ass) and this will be a huge help to the Titans offensive success. TE Chig Okonkwo left to Commanders in free agency
Notes: Titans draft Carnell Tate 1.04. Large potential for early breakout & Cam Ward to deliver at a high level. Calvin Ridley is trash but if Cam Ward can sling the rock could produce (we don't want to own Ridley). Ayomanor & Dike COULD be good if Ward produces but with Tate and Robinson around now will never be WR1 on the team. Could gain relevance though. Gunnar Helm entering 2nd year and should operate as TE1. Tony Pollard is aging & only has a few years left (not attractive to own). Tyjae Spears cannot stay healthy. Have to image the Titans will invest in another RB long term (Nicholas Singleton is probably not that guy either).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Cam Ward returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Brian Daboll — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Robert Saleh.
Offensive environment: TEN rates 20.8 against a league average of 23, 2.2 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +5.1 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +0.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +10 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +9.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -64.7% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 2024 | 3.8 | 62% | -7.7% |
| Josh Reynolds | 2024 | 4.8 | 49% | -12.7% |
| Nelson Agholor | 2023 | 6.1 | 47% | +25.4% |
| Tyler Boyd | 2024 | 5.2 | 47% | -37.2% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2024 | 6.5 | 45% | -42.7% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2015, round 3, pick 69 by SEA |
| College | Kansas St. |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 182 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.4s |
| Vertical | 35.5″ |
| Broad jump | 121″ |
| 3-cone | 6.89s |
| Shuttle | 4.07s |
| Career PPR per game | 10.9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.8 |
| Boom rate | 19.8% |
| Bust rate | 33.3% |
| Games missed per season | 0.2 |
| Injury history | Hand |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.11 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 12 against CLE — 10.2 PPR on 5 targets and a 11.9% target share, in a game that finished 10-24. His worst was Week 9 against JAX at 0, on 1 targets, final score 29-30. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3; in the 10 decided by more, 4.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.5 points per game. He scored 3.95, 28.5% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 12-20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 58% |
| 2 | LA | 19-33 | 2.9 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9.7% | 48% |
| 3 | IND | 20-41 | 7.7 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 11.8% | 54% |
| 4 | HOU | 0-26 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17.4% | 72% |
| 5 | ARI | 22-21 | 1.6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 10.8% | 25% |
| 6 | LV | 10-20 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8.8% | 33% |
| 7 | NE | 13-31 | 3.8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6.3% | 26% |
| 9 | JAX | 29-30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 30% |
| 10 | DEN | 7-10 | 9.4 | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 24% | 57% |
| 11 | DAL | 16-33 | 6.3 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 7.7% | 47% |
| 12 | CLE | 10-24 | 10.2 | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 11.9% | 76% |
| 13 | LAC | 14-31 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4.5% | 52% |
| 14 | DEN | 17-24 | 7.1 | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 14.3% | 60% |
| 15 | PHI | 0-31 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 16% | 76% |
| 16 | HOU | 21-23 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 9.1% | 28% |
| 17 | NYG | 10-34 | 8.9 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 10.7% | 56% |
| 18 | KC | 14-12 | 1.5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 19.2% | 52% |
| Receptions | 32 |
| Targets | 55 |
| Receiving yards | 291 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 3.95 |
| Yards per target | 5.29 |
| Catch rate | 58.18% |
| Snap share | 50% |
| Target share | 11.11% |
| Air-yards share | 13.29% |
| WOPR | 0.261 |
| RACR | 0.801 |
| Average depth of target | 7.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.7 |
| Total YAC | 51 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 80.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.5 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 3.3% |
| End-zone target share | 8.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.8 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.2 |
The offense threw it 570 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Elic Ayomanor | 16.82% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 14.93% |
| Chimere Dike | 13.99% |
| Gunnar Helm | 10.4% |
| Van Jefferson | 9.83% |
| Tyjae Spears | 9.45% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 15 | 44 | 3.75 | 5.5 | 9.71% |
| unknown | 1 | 6 | 9.4 | 7.33 | 24% |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | 5 | 1.5 | 1 | 19.2% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 47.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.54 in those and 3.03 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 6 against SF — 16.5 PPR on 8 targets and a 16.7% target share, in a game that finished 24-36. His worst was Week 14 against ARI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 30-18. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.8; in the 9 decided by more, 7.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 7.7 points per game. He scored 7.12, 7.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.96 expected, a gap of -2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 26-20 | 13.7 | 6 | 7 | 77 | 0 | 28% | 54% |
| 2 | NE | 23-20 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 4.7% | 81% |
| 3 | MIA | 24-3 | 9.6 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 | 24.2% | 56% |
| 4 | DET | 29-42 | 11.1 | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 | 17% | 71% |
| 5 | NYG | 20-29 | 11.5 | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 | 15.4% | 84% |
| 6 | SF | 24-36 | 16.5 | 4 | 8 | 65 | 1 | 16.7% | 78% |
| 7 | ATL | 34-14 | 8.5 | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 21.4% | 60% |
| 8 | BUF | 10-31 | 1.9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11.1% | 78% |
| 9 | LA | 20-26 | 15.3 | 3 | 4 | 63 | 1 | 11.8% | 89% |
| 11 | SF | 20-17 | 3.9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 9.7% | 78% |
| 12 | ARI | 16-6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 10.7% | 64% |
| 13 | NYJ | 26-21 | 4.6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 10.3% | 47% |
| 14 | ARI | 30-18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.4% | 67% |
| 15 | GB | 13-30 | 3.2 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3.2% | 76% |
| 16 | MIN | 24-27 | 3.9 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 4.8% | 69% |
| 17 | CHI | 6-3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 18.2% | 69% |
| 18 | LA | 30-25 | 4.8 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 14.8% | 53% |
| Receptions | 49 |
| Targets | 74 |
| Receiving yards | 600 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 7.12 |
| Yards per target | 8.11 |
| Catch rate | 66.22% |
| Snap share | 69.06% |
| Target share | 13.26% |
| Air-yards share | 19.82% |
| WOPR | 0.338 |
| RACR | 0.894 |
| Average depth of target | 10.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.5 |
| Total YAC | 134 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 77.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.72 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.7% |
| End-zone target share | 23.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.96 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.96 |
The offense threw it 593 times. He took 13.01% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 24.08% |
| DK Metcalf | 18.98% |
| Tyler Lockett ← | 13.01% |
| Noah Fant | 11.25% |
| Kenneth Walker | 9.31% |
| Zach Charbonnet | 9.14% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 19.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.8 in those and 6.84 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 2 against DET — 25.9 PPR on 10 targets and a 27% target share, in a game that finished 37-31. His worst was Week 17 against PIT at 2, on 5 targets, final score 23-30. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.7; in the 7 decided by more, 8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.3 points per game. He scored 11.91, 3.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 13-30 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 16.7% | 88% |
| 2 | DET | 37-31 | 25.9 | 8 | 10 | 59 | 2 | 27% | 86% |
| 3 | CAR | 37-27 | 8.4 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 20% | 81% |
| 4 | NYG | 24-3 | 9.4 | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 23.1% | 69% |
| 6 | CIN | 13-17 | 15.4 | 6 | 8 | 94 | 0 | 21.6% | 77% |
| 7 | ARI | 20-10 | 7.8 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 20.8% | 70% |
| 8 | CLE | 24-20 | 22.1 | 8 | 9 | 81 | 1 | 25% | 84% |
| 9 | BAL | 3-37 | 6.2 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 32% | 90% |
| 10 | WAS | 29-26 | 23.2 | 8 | 10 | 92 | 1 | 23.8% | 79% |
| 11 | LA | 16-17 | 10.1 | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 | 18.4% | 55% |
| 12 | SF | 13-31 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 18.5% | 95% |
| 13 | DAL | 35-41 | 9.7 | 5 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 21.1% | 88% |
| 14 | SF | 16-28 | 14.9 | 6 | 6 | 89 | 0 | 19.4% | 81% |
| 15 | PHI | 20-17 | 5.1 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 28.1% | 75% |
| 16 | TEN | 20-17 | 16.1 | 8 | 11 | 81 | 0 | 30.6% | 81% |
| 17 | PIT | 23-30 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 15.2% | 82% |
| 18 | ARI | 21-20 | 17.1 | 2 | 4 | 71 | 1 | 15.4% | 78% |
| Receptions | 79 |
| Targets | 122 |
| Receiving yards | 894 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 11.91 |
| Yards per target | 7.33 |
| Catch rate | 64.75% |
| Snap share | 79.94% |
| Target share | 22.16% |
| Air-yards share | 32.74% |
| WOPR | 0.561 |
| RACR | 0.684 |
| Average depth of target | 10.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.7 |
| Total YAC | 210 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 86.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.43 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.7% |
| End-zone target share | 25% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.24 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.76 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 36 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 41 of 51 |
| Target share | 33 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 23 of 51 |
The offense threw it 575 times. He took 22.34% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyler Lockett ← | 22.34% |
| DK Metcalf | 21.79% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 17.03% |
| Noah Fant | 7.88% |
| Zach Charbonnet | 7.33% |
| Kenneth Walker | 6.78% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 15 | 107 | 12.16 | 7.33 | 21.95% |
| Drew Lock | 2 | 15 | 10 | 7.33 | 23.75% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 12.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.15 in those and 14.67 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 13 against LA — 27.8 PPR on 12 targets and a 32.4% target share, in a game that finished 27-23. His worst was Week 17 against NYJ at 3.5, on 2 targets, final score 23-6. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.8; in the 6 decided by more, 11.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.6 points per game. He scored 14.96, 16.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 17-16 | 5.8 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 14.8% | 80% |
| 2 | SF | 7-27 | 19.7 | 9 | 11 | 107 | 0 | 36.7% | 92% |
| 3 | ATL | 23-27 | 16.6 | 9 | 11 | 76 | 0 | 25% | 82% |
| 4 | DET | 48-45 | 15.1 | 6 | 8 | 91 | 0 | 27.6% | 78% |
| 5 | NO | 32-39 | 27.4 | 5 | 6 | 104 | 2 | 25% | 96% |
| 6 | ARI | 19-9 | 3.7 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 16.7% | 81% |
| 7 | LAC | 37-23 | 11.5 | 7 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 30.8% | 65% |
| 8 | NYG | 27-13 | 15.3 | 5 | 8 | 63 | 1 | 24.2% | 69% |
| 9 | ARI | 31-21 | 17.7 | 5 | 5 | 67 | 1 | 15.6% | 74% |
| 10 | TB | 16-21 | 13.2 | 3 | 5 | 42 | 1 | 15.2% | 90% |
| 12 | LV | 34-40 | 15.8 | 3 | 7 | 68 | 1 | 18.9% | 88% |
| 13 | LA | 27-23 | 27.8 | 9 | 12 | 128 | 1 | 32.4% | 88% |
| 14 | CAR | 24-30 | 17 | 5 | 9 | 60 | 1 | 25% | 93% |
| 15 | SF | 13-21 | 13.8 | 7 | 9 | 68 | 0 | 22% | 89% |
| 17 | NYJ | 23-6 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 7.1% | 32% |
| 18 | LA | 19-16 | 15.4 | 4 | 7 | 54 | 1 | 25% | 79% |
| Receptions | 84 |
| Targets | 117 |
| Receiving yards | 1,033 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 14.96 |
| Yards per target | 8.83 |
| Catch rate | 71.79% |
| Snap share | 79.75% |
| Target share | 22.63% |
| Air-yards share | 30.93% |
| WOPR | 0.556 |
| RACR | 0.996 |
| Average depth of target | 10.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9 |
| Total YAC | 274 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 106.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.39 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.8% |
| End-zone target share | 9.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.29 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.29 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 16 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 16 of 51 |
| Target share | 26 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 21 of 51 |
The offense threw it 573 times. He took 21.16% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DK Metcalf | 25.5% |
| Tyler Lockett ← | 21.16% |
| Noah Fant | 11.39% |
| Marquise Goodwin | 7.59% |
| Will Dissly | 6.87% |
| Kenneth Walker | 6.33% |
2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 9.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.6 in those and 16.79 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 2 against TEN — 31.8 PPR on 11 targets and a 35.5% target share, in a game that finished 30-33. His worst was Week 7 against NO at 3.2, on 3 targets, final score 10-13. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14; in the 8 decided by more, 16.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.6 points per game. He scored 15.09, 30.2% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.66 expected, a gap of 1.3.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 28-16 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 100 | 2 | 23.8% | 85% |
| 2 | TEN | 30-33 | 31.8 | 8 | 11 | 178 | 1 | 35.5% | 93% |
| 3 | MIN | 17-30 | 7.1 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 14.3% | 92% |
| 4 | SF | 28-21 | 6.4 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 22.7% | 86% |
| 5 | LA | 17-26 | 10.7 | 5 | 10 | 57 | 0 | 31.3% | 86% |
| 6 | PIT | 20-23 | 5.5 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 0 | 22.6% | 89% |
| 7 | NO | 10-13 | 3.2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 15.8% | 86% |
| 8 | JAX | 31-7 | 26.2 | 12 | 13 | 142 | 0 | 59.1% | 77% |
| 10 | GB | 0-17 | 4.3 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 21.1% | 95% |
| 11 | ARI | 13-23 | 15.5 | 4 | 5 | 115 | 0 | 20% | 92% |
| 12 | WAS | 15-17 | 12.6 | 3 | 5 | 96 | 0 | 16.1% | 100% |
| 13 | SF | 30-23 | 19.8 | 7 | 8 | 68 | 1 | 21.6% | 84% |
| 14 | HOU | 33-13 | 27.2 | 5 | 9 | 142 | 1 | 32.1% | 75% |
| 16 | CHI | 24-25 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 22.2% | 86% |
| 17 | DET | 51-29 | 12.1 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 1 | 10.7% | 83% |
| 18 | ARI | 38-30 | 27 | 5 | 5 | 98 | 2 | 19.2% | 88% |
| Receptions | 73 |
| Targets | 107 |
| Receiving yards | 1,175 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 9 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 15.09 |
| Yards per target | 10.98 |
| Catch rate | 68.22% |
| Yards per carry | 4.5 |
| Snap share | 87.31% |
| Target share | 24.26% |
| Air-yards share | 36.18% |
| WOPR | 0.617 |
| RACR | 0.931 |
| Average depth of target | 14.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 12.3 |
| Total YAC | 277 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 117.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.35 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.01 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.3% |
| End-zone target share | 18.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.66 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.34 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 17 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 3 of 48 |
| Target share | 19 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 9 of 48 |
The offense threw it 495 times. He took 22.62% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DK Metcalf | 27.27% |
| Tyler Lockett ← | 22.62% |
| Gerald Everett | 13.32% |
| Freddie Swain | 8.46% |
| Will Dissly | 5.5% |
| DeeJay Dallas | 4.86% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 12 | 74 | 16.32 | 12.55 | 21.61% |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 33 | 11.4 | 7.45 | 32.2% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 28.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.45 in those and 14.04 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 7 against ARI — 53 PPR on 20 targets and a 41.7% target share, in a game that finished 34-37. His worst was Week 12 against PHI at 5.3, on 4 targets, final score 23-17. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.6; in the 5 decided by more, 10. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.4 points per game. He scored 16.59, 10.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 8 against 5.18 expected, a gap of 2.8.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 38-25 | 17.2 | 8 | 8 | 92 | 0 | 22.9% | 94% |
| 2 | NE | 35-30 | 19.7 | 7 | 8 | 67 | 1 | 32% | 95% |
| 3 | DAL | 38-31 | 37 | 9 | 13 | 100 | 3 | 34.2% | 97% |
| 4 | MIA | 31-23 | 5.9 | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 12.1% | 89% |
| 5 | MIN | 27-26 | 8.4 | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 16.7% | 96% |
| 7 | ARI | 34-37 | 53 | 15 | 20 | 200 | 3 | 41.7% | 93% |
| 8 | SF | 37-27 | 7.3 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 13.9% | 87% |
| 9 | BUF | 34-44 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 17.5% | 95% |
| 10 | LA | 16-23 | 11.6 | 5 | 9 | 66 | 0 | 25.7% | 87% |
| 11 | ARI | 28-21 | 21.7 | 9 | 9 | 67 | 1 | 33.3% | 74% |
| 12 | PHI | 23-17 | 5.3 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 13.3% | 90% |
| 13 | NYG | 12-17 | 12.3 | 6 | 9 | 63 | 0 | 22% | 86% |
| 14 | NYJ | 40-3 | 10.2 | 5 | 5 | 52 | 0 | 15.6% | 64% |
| 15 | WAS | 20-15 | 7.4 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 26.9% | 91% |
| 16 | LA | 20-9 | 7.4 | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 17.2% | 94% |
| 17 | SF | 26-23 | 33 | 12 | 14 | 90 | 2 | 43.8% | 89% |
| Receptions | 100 |
| Targets | 132 |
| Receiving yards | 1,054 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 16.59 |
| Yards per target | 7.98 |
| Catch rate | 75.76% |
| Snap share | 88.81% |
| Target share | 24.3% |
| Air-yards share | 26.15% |
| WOPR | 0.548 |
| RACR | 1.011 |
| Average depth of target | 9.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.3 |
| Total YAC | 327 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 120.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.6 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 19% |
| End-zone target share | 20% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.18 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 8 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.82 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 11 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 32 of 51 |
| Target share | 17 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 28 of 51 |
The offense threw it 563 times. He took 24.63% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyler Lockett ← | 24.63% |
| DK Metcalf | 24.07% |
| David Moore | 8.77% |
| Chris Carson | 8.58% |
| Jacob Hollister | 7.46% |
| Greg Olsen | 6.9% |
1 of his 16 games were blowouts, 3.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.2 in those and 19.57 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Tyler Lockett →