Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 0 points per game in 2025, usage worth 0.
30 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class
Atlanta Falcons returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Michael Penix Jr at quarterback, Kevin Stefanski as head coach, Tommy Rees calling it. The offense projects to 32.8 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.2 rushes.
In: Tua Tagovailoa (qb2), Olamide Zaccheaus (wr2), Zachariah Branch (wr3), Jahan Dotson (wr4), Brian Robinson Jr (rb2), Tyler Goodson (rb3), Carter Nathan (rb4), Austin Hooper (te2). Out: Kirk Cousins (qb2), Darnell Mooney (wr2), David Sills V (wr4), Ray-Ray McCloud III (wr5), Dylan Drummond (wr6), Khadarel Hodge (wr7), Tyler Allgeier (rb2), Nathan Carter (rb3), Charlie Woerner (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Drake London | 24.2% |
| Kyle Pitts | 16.9% |
| Bijan Robinson | 14.5% |
| Austin Hooper | 10.3% |
| Zachariah Branch | 8.4% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: Bijan Robinson has been able to produce redardless of poor QB play in ATL. Drake London has had flashes & the talent is clearly there, but needs better QB play. Perhaps Penix Jr fully recovers from 2nd ACL tear & proves he is the franchise QB. OR there is a SMALL chance Tua turns his career around and can elevate this offense. Unlikely. Despite what most fans think, the falcons have not committed to a starting QB, there is a decent chance their franchise QB is neither Penix or Tua.
Key additions: Tua Tagovailoa signed on 1 year veteran minumum deal. WR Jahan Dotson 2 year $15M deal. TE Austin Hooper 1 year deal to back up Pitts. WR Olamide Zaccheaus returns to ATL. OL Jawaan Taylor signed 1 year deal. Zachariah Branch WR Georgia 3rd Round draft pick.
Key departures: Drew Dalman (starting Center) left to Chicago Bears & RT Kaleb McGary retired aftr missing entire 2025 season. Elijah Wilkinson Starting RT left in free agency. Kirk Cousins left to Las Vegas. Tyler Allgeier left to Arizona. WR Darnell Mooney released after regression & heads to NY Giants.
Notes: Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa after release from Dolphins. Penix may be ready week 1 but possible he is no longer the starter. This will be determined in camp. New HC: Kevin Stefanski from Browns. Tommy Rees is new OC. Followed Stefanski from Cleveland. Bijan & London are core offensive players. Pitts wants long term exension, but was franchise tagged (could be traded). Branch round 3 Georgia WR adds speed & could produce early. Brian Robinson Jr is a valuable handcuff for Bijan Robinson but shouldn't have stand alone value. London clear WR1, Zaccheaus returns in free agency. Jahan Dotson (former 1st round pick) added in free agency. Zachariah Branch could see large volume as a rookie if develops quickly. QB play may still hold team back. Olamide Zaccheaus is a player that should be rostered in all leagues as a real sleeper. Highly productive player in Chicago that COULD pop early if Branch is a slow bloomer & Dotson is a nothing burger.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Michael Penix Jr returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.1 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.8 att/g; New OC Tommy Rees — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Kevin Stefanski.
Offensive environment: ATL rates 21.5 against a league average of 23, 1.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +2.1 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.4 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +5.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved 0% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2023 | 1.6 | 60% | -46.2% |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2024 | 4 | 55% | +4.4% |
| Braxton Berrios | 2024 | 0 | 55% | +13.5% |
| Brandon Powell | 2024 | 0.9 | 42% | +24.8% |
| David Moore | 2023 | 3.4 | 42% | +182.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2017, round 5, pick 165 by DET |
| College | San Diego |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Career PPR per game | 4.2 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1.2 |
| Boom rate | 13% |
| Bust rate | 47.8% |
| Games missed per season | 1 |
| Injury history | Ribs, Knee, Shoulder, Groin |
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 1 against TB — 0 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 20-23. His worst was Week 14 against SEA at 0, on 0 targets, final score 9-37. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 0; in the 5 decided by more, 0. Game state made no difference to his scoring.
His usage that season was worth 0 points per game. He scored 0, 0% below it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 20-23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | WAS | 34-27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 6 | BUF | 24-14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7 | SF | 10-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 8 | MIA | 10-34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2% |
| 9 | NE | 23-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | IND | 25-31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | CAR | 27-30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 12 | NO | 24-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 13 | NYJ | 24-27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 14 | SEA | 9-37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Receptions | 0 |
| Targets | 0 |
| Receiving yards | 0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 0 |
| Snap share | 0.18% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| WOPR | 0 |
| RACR | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
The offense threw it 545 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Kyle Pitts | 22.78% |
| Drake London | 21.62% |
| Bijan Robinson | 19.88% |
| Darnell Mooney | 13.9% |
| David Sills | 6.95% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3.09% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix | 7 | 0 | 0 | — | 0% |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | 0% |
2 of his 11 games were blowouts. He averaged 0 in those and 0 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against BAL — 15 PPR on 2 targets and a 4.8% target share, in a game that finished 7-23. His worst was Week 1 against IND at -0.2, on 0 targets, final score 31-21. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3; in the 8 decided by more, 3.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4.5 points per game. He scored 3.66, 11.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 31-21 | -0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 4% |
| 2 | KC | 9-17 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2.4% | 37% |
| 3 | HOU | 17-37 | 6.9 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 12.5% | 55% |
| 5 | BUF | 25-20 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 13% |
| 6 | IND | 37-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 31% |
| 7 | NO | 31-24 | 7.5 | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 20% | 52% |
| 8 | PIT | 20-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 28% |
| 10 | SF | 3-34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 15 | BAL | 7-23 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 70 | 1 | 4.8% | 16% |
| 16 | TB | 12-30 | 2.2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 11.4% | 47% |
| 17 | CAR | 26-0 | 7.3 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 8.7% | 14% |
| Receptions | 14 |
| Targets | 21 |
| Receiving yards | 225 |
| Carries | 4 |
| Rushing yards | -2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 3.66 |
| Yards per target | 10.71 |
| Catch rate | 66.67% |
| Yards per carry | -0.5 |
| Snap share | 27.45% |
| Target share | 5.44% |
| Air-yards share | 8.74% |
| WOPR | 0.143 |
| RACR | 0.577 |
| Average depth of target | 12 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.6 |
| Total YAC | 76 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 98.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.23 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.25 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 3% |
| End-zone target share | 2.5% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.41 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.41 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.1 |
The offense threw it 619 times. He took 3.46% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Evan Engram | 23.56% |
| Calvin Ridley | 22.41% |
| Christian Kirk | 14% |
| Travis Etienne | 12.03% |
| Zay Jones | 10.54% |
| Jamal Agnew ← | 3.46% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 10 | 19 | 3.3 | 9.05 | 5.11% |
| C.J. Beathard | 1 | 2 | 7.3 | 26.5 | 8.7% |
5 of his 11 games were blowouts, 40.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.28 in those and 3.03 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against PHI — 21 PPR on 6 targets and a 26.1% target share, in a game that finished 21-29. His worst was Week 9 against LV at 0, on 0 targets, final score 27-20. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.5; in the 7 decided by more, 2.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 3.6 points per game. He scored 4.69, 24.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 22-28 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2.6% | 10% |
| 2 | IND | 24-0 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3.3% | 10% |
| 3 | LAC | 38-10 | 2.7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 16% |
| 4 | PHI | 21-29 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26.1% | 38% |
| 5 | HOU | 6-13 | 0.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2.3% | 8% |
| 6 | IND | 27-34 | 3.4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 4.5% | 8% |
| 9 | LV | 27-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1% |
| 10 | KC | 17-27 | 3.4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.3% | 11% |
| 12 | BAL | 28-27 | 14.7 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13.5% | 24% |
| 13 | DET | 14-40 | 2.3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | 16% |
| 14 | TEN | 36-22 | 7.4 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 7.1% | 15% |
| 15 | DAL | 40-34 | 8.4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 52 | 0 | 7.3% | 14% |
| 16 | NYJ | 19-3 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.3% | 13% |
| 17 | HOU | 31-3 | 0.8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -6 | 0 | 3.6% | 27% |
| 18 | TEN | 20-16 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4% | 14% |
| Receptions | 23 |
| Targets | 30 |
| Receiving yards | 187 |
| Carries | 12 |
| Rushing yards | 86 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 4.69 |
| Yards per target | 6.23 |
| Catch rate | 76.67% |
| Yards per carry | 7.17 |
| Snap share | 15% |
| Target share | 6.19% |
| Air-yards share | 5.01% |
| WOPR | 0.129 |
| RACR | 0.561 |
| Average depth of target | 6.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2.9 |
| Total YAC | 121 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 125.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.52 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.4 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 9% |
| End-zone target share | 2.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.18 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.82 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.11 |
The offense threw it 596 times. He took 5.23% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Christian Kirk | 23.17% |
| Zay Jones | 21.08% |
| Evan Engram | 17.07% |
| Marvin Jones | 14.11% |
| Travis Etienne | 7.84% |
| Jamal Agnew ← | 5.23% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 8.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.47 in those and 6.47 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 8 against SEA — 15.8 PPR on 12 targets and a 23.1% target share, in a game that finished 7-31. His worst was Week 1 against HOU at 0, on 0 targets, final score 21-37. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.6; in the 6 decided by more, 7.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.5 points per game. He scored 8.2, 21.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 21-37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 13% |
| 2 | DEN | 13-23 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 7% |
| 3 | ARI | 19-31 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 9% |
| 4 | CIN | 21-24 | 4.8 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4.5% | 14% |
| 5 | TEN | 19-37 | 10.9 | 6 | 7 | 41 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 21.2% | 63% |
| 6 | MIA | 23-20 | 12.8 | 5 | 6 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15% | 59% |
| 8 | SEA | 7-31 | 15.8 | 6 | 12 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23.1% | 72% |
| 9 | BUF | 9-6 | 6.8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 18.5% | 54% |
| 10 | IND | 17-23 | 13.9 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 79 | 1 | 14.3% | 76% |
| 11 | SF | 10-30 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12.5% | 22% |
| Receptions | 24 |
| Targets | 39 |
| Receiving yards | 229 |
| Carries | 7 |
| Rushing yards | 111 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 8.2 |
| Yards per target | 5.87 |
| Catch rate | 61.54% |
| Yards per carry | 15.86 |
| Snap share | 38.9% |
| Target share | 10.91% |
| Air-yards share | 10.7% |
| WOPR | 0.239 |
| RACR | 0.747 |
| Average depth of target | 7.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.5 |
| Total YAC | 121 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 86.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.57 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.81 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.5% |
| End-zone target share | 8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.71 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.29 |
The offense threw it 604 times. He took 6.69% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Marvin Jones | 20.58% |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 17.15% |
| Laquon Treadwell | 8.75% |
| James Robinson | 7.89% |
| Dan Arnold | 7.03% |
| Jamal Agnew ← | 6.69% |
3 of his 10 games were blowouts, 38.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.57 in those and 9.58 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 16 against TB — 6 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 7-47. His worst was Week 17 against MIN at 0, on 0 targets, final score 35-37. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.8; in the 7 decided by more, 2.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 2.8 points per game. He scored 2.23, 13.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 23-27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.4% | 19% |
| 2 | GB | 21-42 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.3% | 15% |
| 3 | ARI | 26-23 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6.5% | 21% |
| 4 | NO | 29-35 | 1.3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6.7% | 18% |
| 6 | JAX | 34-16 | 3.7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6.5% | 25% |
| 7 | ATL | 23-22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.1% | 18% |
| 8 | IND | 21-41 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 11% |
| 11 | CAR | 0-20 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 18.8% | 50% |
| 12 | HOU | 25-41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.4% | 30% |
| 13 | CHI | 34-30 | 4.4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 4.9% | 24% |
| 14 | GB | 24-31 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2.6% | 16% |
| 15 | TEN | 25-46 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.7% | 15% |
| 16 | TB | 7-47 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 23% |
| 17 | MIN | 35-37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 19% |
| Receptions | 13 |
| Targets | 20 |
| Receiving yards | 89 |
| Carries | 6 |
| Rushing yards | 33 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 2.23 |
| Yards per target | 4.45 |
| Catch rate | 65% |
| Yards per carry | 5.5 |
| Snap share | 21.71% |
| Target share | 4.28% |
| Air-yards share | 2.89% |
| WOPR | 0.084 |
| RACR | 0.086 |
| Average depth of target | 4.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.9 |
| Total YAC | 101 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 74.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.38 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.1% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.43 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.43 |
The offense threw it 582 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Marvin Jones | 20.61% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 18.1% |
| Danny Amendola | 12.37% |
| D'Andre Swift | 10.22% |
| Quintez Cephus | 6.27% |
| Kenny Golladay | 5.73% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 13 | 20 | 1.94 | 4.45 | 4.61% |
| Chase Daniel | 1 | 0 | 6 | — | 0% |
6 of his 14 games were blowouts, 60.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.13 in those and 1.77 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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