Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 3.94 points per game in 2025, usage worth 3.9.
33 years old · 13 seasons of experience · 2013 draft class
Baltimore Ravens returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Lamar Jackson at quarterback, Jesse Minter as head coach, Declan Doyle calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.1 rushes.
In: Ja'Kobi Lane (wr4), Elijah Sarratt (wr5), Cornelius Johnson (wr7), Adam Randall (rb3), Ali Rasheen (rb4), Durham Smythe (te2). Out: Devin Duvernay (wr3), Tylan Wallace (wr5), Keaton Mitchell (rb3), Rasheen Ali (rb4), Isaiah Likely (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Zay Flowers | 24% |
| Mark Andrews | 14.5% |
| Rashod Bateman | 11.1% |
| Justice Hill | 8.7% |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | 8.4% |
| Elijah Sarratt | 7.3% |
What the offense looks like: Derrick Henry is aging, but until proven otherwise, will continue to be the Ravens workhorse back. Zay Flowers had his 5th year option picked up & his long term future in Baltimore MAY hinge on his 2026 season. he has shown flashes of being a true WR1, and Baltimore hasn't brought in direct competition with him, but imagine if he doesn't establish himself this year that Ravens will address WR more adequately. Rookie WRS Lane & Sarratt. have a large opportunity to take a substantial role in this offense. Bateman and Walker by no means are locked in as WR2 and WR3.
Key additions: G John Simpson (3/$30M), TE Durham Smythe (depth), QB Tyler Huntley (Back up to Lamar), WR Ja'Kobi Lane (3rd round from USC), WR Elijah Sarratt (4th Round Indiana), TE Matthew Hibner TE (5th round SMU)
Key departures: Biggest departure is HC John Harbaugh being fired at the end of the 2025 season. C Tyler Linderbaum left to Raiders. Isaiah Likely (TE) signed 3 year deal with NY. Lost RB Keaton Mitchell to the Chargers.
Notes: Lamar expected to completely bounce back. Derrick Henry is the unicorn who never ages apparently (fall off coming but production still here as of now). Ravens draft Adam Randall RB in 5th round. Justice Hill will still operate as 3rd down back. Henry main back. Isaiah Likely left to Giants in free agency. Andrews signs extension. Durham Smythe TE & Matthew Hibner TE also drafted. Andrews should be TE1 but unsure what production will look like. Ravens picked up Flowers franchise tag and he is under contract through 2027. Lane could be a rookie breakout, opportunity is 100% there.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Lamar Jackson returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (24.8 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Declan Doyle — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jesse Minter.
Offensive environment: BAL rates 25.7 against a league average of 23, 2.7 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.7 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.3 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2 | Christian Kirk | +2.7 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -48% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 2024 | 2.7 | 71% | +13.5% |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2023 | 3.5 | 64% | -46.5% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2024 | 5.4 | 62% | +36% |
| Kalif Raymond | 2024 | 4.7 | 61% | -12.4% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2024 | 6.5 | 60% | -42.7% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Height | 6′1″ |
| Weight | 214 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.57s |
| Vertical | 36″ |
| Broad jump | 115″ |
| Shuttle | 4.5s |
| Career PPR per game | 11.3 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 10.4% |
| Bust rate | 25.4% |
| Games missed per season | 0.5 |
| Injury history | Hamstring, Knee |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.12 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 2 against CLE — 14.4 PPR on 2 targets and a 7.1% target share, in a game that finished 41-17. His worst was Week 18 against PIT at 0, on 2 targets, final score 24-26. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.9; in the 10 decided by more, 3.9. Game state made no difference to his scoring.
His usage that season was worth 3.9 points per game. He scored 3.94, 0.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 40-41 | 11.5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 | 10.5% | 35% |
| 2 | CLE | 41-17 | 14.4 | 2 | 2 | 64 | 1 | 7.1% | 18% |
| 3 | DET | 30-38 | 2.3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7.1% | 25% |
| 4 | KC | 20-37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.3% | 33% |
| 5 | HOU | 10-44 | 6.6 | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 | 10% | 26% |
| 6 | LA | 3-17 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 12.5% | 33% |
| 8 | CHI | 30-16 | 2.4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4.5% | 37% |
| 9 | MIA | 28-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.3% | 32% |
| 10 | MIN | 27-19 | 3.6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 14.3% | 27% |
| 11 | CLE | 23-16 | 2.1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 16% | 69% |
| 12 | NYJ | 23-10 | 3.3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 15% | 54% |
| 13 | CIN | 14-32 | 4.5 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 10% | 38% |
| 14 | PIT | 22-27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 16% |
| 15 | CIN | 24-0 | 4.2 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 8.3% | 32% |
| 16 | NE | 24-28 | 8.1 | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 25% | 36% |
| 17 | GB | 41-24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 25% |
| 18 | PIT | 24-26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11.8% | 25% |
| Receptions | 22 |
| Targets | 39 |
| Receiving yards | 330 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 3.94 |
| Yards per target | 8.46 |
| Catch rate | 56.41% |
| Snap share | 33% |
| Target share | 9.86% |
| Air-yards share | 15.3% |
| WOPR | 0.255 |
| RACR | 0.803 |
| Average depth of target | 13.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 12 |
| Total YAC | 65 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.56 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.6% |
| End-zone target share | 10.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.8 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.8 |
The offense threw it 422 times. He took 9.58% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 28.99% |
| Mark Andrews | 17.2% |
| DeAndre Hopkins ← | 9.58% |
| Rashod Bateman | 9.34% |
| Isaiah Likely | 8.85% |
| Justice Hill | 6.63% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13 | 31 | 4.15 | 8.06 | 10.44% |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 6 | 5.3 | 11 | 11.25% |
| Tyler Huntley | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 7 | 4.75% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 44.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.24 in those and 3.94 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 9 against TB — 28.6 PPR on 9 targets and a 21.4% target share, in a game that finished 30-24. His worst was Week 7 against BUF at 0.8, on 1 targets, final score 10-34. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.5; in the 6 decided by more, 7.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.2 points per game. He scored 9.19, 3.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 4.59 expected, a gap of 1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 17-24 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3.7% | 27% |
| 2 | NYJ | 17-24 | 1.9 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7.4% | 44% |
| 3 | GB | 14-30 | 19.3 | 6 | 7 | 73 | 1 | 20.6% | 46% |
| 4 | MIA | 31-12 | 5.1 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 22.2% | 32% |
| 6 | IND | 17-20 | 9.4 | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 22.2% | 71% |
| 7 | BUF | 10-34 | 0.8 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 2.6% | 60% |
| 8 | LV | 27-20 | 4.9 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 8.6% | 32% |
| 9 | TB | 30-24 | 28.6 | 8 | 9 | 86 | 2 | 21.4% | 60% |
| 10 | DEN | 16-14 | 9.6 | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 12.5% | 65% |
| 11 | BUF | 21-30 | 5.9 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 12.9% | 47% |
| 12 | CAR | 30-27 | 14.5 | 5 | 6 | 35 | 1 | 16.7% | 45% |
| 13 | LV | 19-17 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 90 | 0 | 20% | 59% |
| 14 | LAC | 19-17 | 13.2 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 25% | 55% |
| 15 | CLE | 21-7 | 8.6 | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 15.8% | 45% |
| 16 | HOU | 27-19 | 7.7 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 9.8% | 49% |
| 17 | PIT | 29-10 | 2.7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 10.5% | 47% |
| Receptions | 56 |
| Targets | 80 |
| Receiving yards | 610 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 9.19 |
| Yards per target | 7.63 |
| Catch rate | 70% |
| Snap share | 49% |
| Target share | 14.49% |
| Air-yards share | 23.64% |
| WOPR | 0.383 |
| RACR | 0.704 |
| Average depth of target | 10.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8 |
| Total YAC | 108 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 113.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.2 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.2% |
| End-zone target share | 29.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.59 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.41 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 46 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 35 of 51 |
| Target share | 50 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 42 of 51 |
The offense threw it 530 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Calvin Ridley | 23.72% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 13.83% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 11.86% |
| Tyler Boyd | 11.26% |
| Tony Pollard | 11.26% |
| Josh Whyle | 7.31% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 9 | 49 | 9.84 | 7.88 | 15.67% |
| Mason Rudolph | 7 | 31 | 8.34 | 7.23 | 12.99% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 5.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.87 in those and 10.46 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 8 against ATL — 34.8 PPR on 6 targets and a 23.1% target share, in a game that finished 28-23. His worst was Week 6 against BAL at 3, on 5 targets, final score 16-24. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.1; in the 5 decided by more, 10.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.8 points per game. He scored 13.15, 5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 15-16 | 13.5 | 7 | 13 | 65 | 0 | 39.4% | 78% |
| 2 | LAC | 27-24 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 20.8% | 60% |
| 3 | CLE | 3-27 | 7.8 | 3 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 29.2% | 73% |
| 4 | CIN | 27-3 | 10.3 | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 | 23.1% | 53% |
| 5 | IND | 16-23 | 22 | 8 | 11 | 140 | 0 | 32.4% | 83% |
| 6 | BAL | 16-24 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 25% | 87% |
| 8 | ATL | 28-23 | 34.8 | 4 | 6 | 128 | 3 | 23.1% | 63% |
| 9 | PIT | 16-20 | 10.5 | 4 | 11 | 60 | 0 | 29.7% | 69% |
| 10 | TB | 6-20 | 5.7 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 0 | 23.1% | 79% |
| 11 | JAX | 14-34 | 15.9 | 4 | 5 | 59 | 1 | 29.4% | 63% |
| 12 | CAR | 17-10 | 7.9 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 18.5% | 57% |
| 13 | IND | 28-31 | 18.9 | 5 | 12 | 75 | 1 | 36.4% | 76% |
| 14 | MIA | 28-27 | 25.4 | 7 | 12 | 124 | 1 | 33.3% | 63% |
| 15 | HOU | 16-19 | 4.1 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 34.6% | 78% |
| 16 | SEA | 17-20 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 16% | 82% |
| 17 | HOU | 3-26 | 14.2 | 7 | 7 | 72 | 0 | 28% | 85% |
| 18 | JAX | 28-20 | 17.6 | 7 | 10 | 46 | 1 | 38.5% | 78% |
| Receptions | 75 |
| Targets | 137 |
| Receiving yards | 1,057 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 9 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 13.15 |
| Yards per target | 7.72 |
| Catch rate | 54.74% |
| Yards per carry | 4.5 |
| Snap share | 72.18% |
| Target share | 28.26% |
| Air-yards share | 41.16% |
| WOPR | 0.711 |
| RACR | 0.634 |
| Average depth of target | 14.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.1 |
| Total YAC | 223 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 78.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.13 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 18 |
| Red-zone target share | 37.5% |
| End-zone target share | 52.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 3.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.24 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.24 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.17 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 28 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 34 of 51 |
| Target share | 12 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 5 of 51 |
The offense threw it 494 times. He took 28.78% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DeAndre Hopkins ← | 28.78% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 16.18% |
| Tyjae Spears | 14.71% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 9.45% |
| Derrick Henry | 7.56% |
| Chris Moore | 7.35% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 9 | 68 | 11.16 | 7.56 | 28.04% |
| Will Levis | 8 | 69 | 15.4 | 7.87 | 28.51% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 21.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.05 in those and 14.14 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 8 against MIN — 33.9 PPR on 13 targets and a 30.2% target share, in a game that finished 26-34. His worst was Week 16 against TB at 1.4, on 10 targets, final score 16-19. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.6; in the 5 decided by more, 15.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 18.2 points per game. He scored 16.86, 7.5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NO | 42-34 | 20.3 | 10 | 14 | 103 | 0 | 48.3% | 92% |
| 8 | MIN | 26-34 | 33.9 | 12 | 13 | 159 | 1 | 30.2% | 100% |
| 9 | SEA | 21-31 | 13.6 | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 | 15.2% | 94% |
| 10 | LA | 27-17 | 19.8 | 10 | 14 | 98 | 0 | 40% | 94% |
| 11 | SF | 10-38 | 18.1 | 9 | 12 | 91 | 0 | 28.6% | 69% |
| 12 | LAC | 24-25 | 18.7 | 4 | 6 | 87 | 1 | 22.2% | 74% |
| 14 | NE | 13-27 | 12.9 | 7 | 11 | 79 | 0 | 26.8% | 85% |
| 15 | DEN | 15-24 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 60 | 0 | 31.4% | 92% |
| 16 | TB | 16-19 | 1.4 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 23.8% | 93% |
| Receptions | 64 |
| Targets | 96 |
| Receiving yards | 717 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 16.86 |
| Yards per target | 7.47 |
| Catch rate | 66.67% |
| Snap share | 88.11% |
| Target share | 29.61% |
| Air-yards share | 40.89% |
| WOPR | 0.729 |
| RACR | 0.8 |
| Average depth of target | 10.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.6 |
| Total YAC | 165 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 86.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.75 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 9% |
| End-zone target share | 10% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.11 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.11 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 9 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 35 of 51 |
| Target share | 4 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 3 of 51 |
The offense threw it 663 times. He took 15.14% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Marquise Brown | 16.88% |
| DeAndre Hopkins ← | 15.14% |
| Zach Ertz | 10.88% |
| Greg Dortch | 10.09% |
| James Conner | 9.15% |
| Rondale Moore | 8.83% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 4 | 38 | 21.63 | 10.13 | 28.98% |
| Colt McCoy | 4 | 48 | 15.95 | 6.83 | 31.7% |
| Trace McSorley | 1 | 10 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 23.8% |
1 of his 9 games were blowouts, 11.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.1 in those and 18.58 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 1 against TEN — 26.3 PPR on 8 targets and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 38-13. His worst was Week 3 against JAX at 5.1, on 6 targets, final score 31-19. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.8; in the 6 decided by more, 15.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.1 points per game. He scored 14.72, 32.7% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 8 against 4.41 expected, a gap of 3.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 38-13 | 26.3 | 6 | 8 | 83 | 2 | 25% | 88% |
| 2 | MIN | 34-33 | 15.4 | 4 | 4 | 54 | 1 | 11.8% | 97% |
| 3 | JAX | 31-19 | 5.1 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 17.6% | 91% |
| 4 | LA | 37-20 | 10.7 | 4 | 7 | 67 | 0 | 24.1% | 96% |
| 5 | SF | 17-10 | 20.7 | 6 | 9 | 87 | 1 | 32.1% | 92% |
| 6 | CLE | 37-14 | 20.5 | 3 | 4 | 55 | 2 | 14.3% | 89% |
| 7 | HOU | 31-5 | 18.3 | 7 | 9 | 53 | 1 | 32.1% | 83% |
| 8 | GB | 21-24 | 8.6 | 2 | 2 | 66 | 0 | 6.5% | 25% |
| 13 | CHI | 33-22 | 11.2 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 1 | 13.3% | 74% |
| 14 | LA | 23-30 | 10.4 | 5 | 13 | 54 | 0 | 26.5% | 87% |
| Receptions | 42 |
| Targets | 64 |
| Receiving yards | 572 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 14.72 |
| Yards per target | 8.94 |
| Catch rate | 65.63% |
| Snap share | 82.2% |
| Target share | 20.33% |
| Air-yards share | 31.79% |
| WOPR | 0.527 |
| RACR | 0.892 |
| Average depth of target | 12.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.3 |
| Total YAC | 140 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 133.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.24 |
| Red-zone targets | 15 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.6% |
| End-zone target share | 23.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.41 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 8 |
| Receiving TD luck | 3.59 |
The offense threw it 590 times. He took 11.23% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Christian Kirk | 18.07% |
| A.J. Green | 16.14% |
| Zach Ertz | 14.21% |
| DeAndre Hopkins ← | 11.23% |
| Rondale Moore | 11.23% |
| Chase Edmonds | 9.3% |
4 of his 10 games were blowouts, 51.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.95 in those and 13.78 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against PHI — 30 PPR on 11 targets and a 29.7% target share, in a game that finished 33-26. His worst was Week 9 against MIA at 6, on 3 targets, final score 31-34. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.1; in the 7 decided by more, 16.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 18 points per game. He scored 17.99, 0.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 5.23 expected, a gap of -2.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 24-20 | 29.1 | 14 | 16 | 151 | 0 | 43.2% | 94% |
| 2 | WAS | 30-15 | 20.8 | 8 | 9 | 68 | 1 | 26.5% | 97% |
| 3 | DET | 23-26 | 23.7 | 10 | 12 | 137 | 0 | 36.4% | 94% |
| 4 | CAR | 21-31 | 11.1 | 7 | 9 | 41 | 0 | 29% | 95% |
| 5 | NYJ | 30-10 | 25.1 | 6 | 7 | 131 | 1 | 20% | 86% |
| 6 | DAL | 38-10 | 9.3 | 2 | 8 | 73 | 0 | 36.4% | 77% |
| 7 | SEA | 37-34 | 24.3 | 10 | 12 | 103 | 1 | 27.3% | 95% |
| 9 | MIA | 31-34 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 11.5% | 97% |
| 10 | BUF | 32-30 | 25.7 | 7 | 12 | 127 | 1 | 37.5% | 96% |
| 11 | SEA | 21-28 | 10.1 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 20.5% | 91% |
| 12 | NE | 17-20 | 10.5 | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 20.6% | 96% |
| 13 | LA | 28-38 | 19.2 | 8 | 13 | 52 | 1 | 36.1% | 100% |
| 14 | NYG | 26-7 | 22.6 | 9 | 11 | 136 | 0 | 34.4% | 78% |
| 15 | PHI | 33-26 | 30 | 9 | 11 | 169 | 1 | 29.7% | 96% |
| 16 | SF | 12-20 | 12.8 | 8 | 12 | 48 | 0 | 26.1% | 91% |
| 17 | LA | 7-18 | 7.5 | 4 | 10 | 35 | 0 | 37% | 91% |
| Receptions | 115 |
| Targets | 160 |
| Receiving yards | 1,407 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 17.99 |
| Yards per target | 8.79 |
| Catch rate | 71.88% |
| Yards per carry | 1 |
| Snap share | 92.13% |
| Target share | 29.51% |
| Air-yards share | 33.49% |
| WOPR | 0.676 |
| RACR | 1.026 |
| Average depth of target | 8.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.6 |
| Total YAC | 534 |
| Broken tackles | 15 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 105.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.3 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.06 |
| Red-zone targets | 18 |
| Red-zone target share | 26.1% |
| End-zone target share | 27.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.23 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.23 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 5 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 18 of 51 |
| Target share | 3 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 12 of 51 |
The offense threw it 574 times. He took 29.41% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DeAndre Hopkins ← | 29.41% |
| Christian Kirk | 14.52% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 13.24% |
| Chase Edmonds | 12.32% |
| Dan Arnold | 8.27% |
| Andy Isabella | 6.43% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 15 | 150 | 18.69 | 9.15 | 29.01% |
| Chris Streveler | 1 | 10 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 37% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 19.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19 in those and 19.13 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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