Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 3.52 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 219, usage worth 2.9.
29 years old · 9 seasons of experience · 2017 draft class
| SLEEPER | 268 |
| ESPN | 170 |
| FFA | 667 |
| Goes around | Round 19, pick 3 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR174 |
| ADP standard deviation | 69.3 picks |
Buffalo Bills returns 3 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, hc, oc. Josh Allen at quarterback, Joe Brady as head coach, Pete Carmichael Jr. calling it. The offense projects to 31.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 29.2 rushes.
In: Kyle Allen (qb2), DJ Moore (wr1), Skyler Bell (wr4), Trent Sherfield (wr7). Out: Curtis Samuel (wr4).
The projected target split across the offense:
| DJ Moore | 17.1% |
| Khalil Shakir | 16.8% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 14.4% |
| Keon Coleman | 11.7% |
| James Cook | 9.4% |
| Dawson Knox | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: This is a high powered offense centered around Josh Allen & James Cook. Over the past few years, the Bills have struggled to surround Allen with the weapons he needs in the passsing game. Kincaid HAS NOT made the leap or returned his 1st round draft capital despite what people say. The move to get DJ Moore was very intentional & GM Brandon Beane believes Moore is a locked in WR1 for Buffalo. Shakir is going to be a strong contributor but the DJ Moore trade likely hurts his value.
Key additions: Bills traded a 2nd round pick for to Bears for WR DJ Moore & extended on 4 year deal. C Lloyd Cushenberry 1 year deal. G/C Austin Corbett from Panthers (starter). WR Trent Sherfield from Minnesota (depth).
Key departures: David Edwards (starting LG), WR Curtis Samuel was released. Back up QB Mitch Trubisky signed with the Titans.
Notes: The Bills fired Sean McDermott following their loss to Denver in the playoffs in 2025. Joe Brady (standout OC) was promoted to HCThe Keon Coleman breakout may not ever happen. Bills traded for DJ Moore from Bears & under contract for 4 years. Large opportunity to emerge as main pass catcher in offense. Shakir reliable but no true ceiling yet. Allen 30 but still elite. Bills draft Skyler Bell WR from UConn 6 foor 192 LB 4.40 second 40 yard dash. Large opportunity for Bell in long run. Kincaid health remains a question. Opted to not get PCL surgery AGAIN & new HC Joe Brady says they will manage pain throughout 2026. James Cook will continue to produce as a top 10 PPR fantasy back IF he stays healthy. Very underrated runner.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Josh Allen returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.1 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.5 att/g; New OC Pete Carmichael Jr. — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Joe Brady.
Offensive environment: BUF rates 26.9 against a league average of 23, 3.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.3 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -4.4 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.6 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.2 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -39% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 2024 | 2.7 | 75% | +13.2% |
| Nelson Agholor | 2024 | 3.8 | 74% | -7.7% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2024 | 4.8 | 70% | +0.1% |
| Josh Reynolds | 2024 | 4.8 | 65% | -12.7% |
| Nelson Agholor | 2023 | 6.1 | 62% | +25.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2017, round 2, pick 40 by CAR |
| College | Ohio St. |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 196 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.31s |
| Vertical | 37″ |
| Broad jump | 119″ |
| 3-cone | 7.09s |
| Shuttle | 4.33s |
| Career PPR per game | 9.2 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.8 |
| Boom rate | 23.6% |
| Bust rate | 34.5% |
| Games missed per season | 1.5 |
| Injury history | Groin, Hamstring, Toe, Pectoral, Elbow |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.21 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 5 against NE — 10.6 PPR on 2 targets and a 6.7% target share, in a game that finished 20-23. His worst was Week 8 against CAR at 0, on 0 targets, final score 40-9. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times.
His usage that season was worth 2.9 points per game. He scored 3.52, 8.8% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | NO | 31-19 | 1.9 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 9.1% | 34% |
| 5 | NE | 20-23 | 10.6 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 1 | 6.7% | 49% |
| 8 | CAR | 40-9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 30% |
| 9 | KC | 28-21 | 1.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | 41% |
| 10 | MIA | 13-30 | 3.1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 2.6% | 35% |
| 11 | TB | 44-32 | 3.9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 10% | 50% |
| Receptions | 7 |
| Targets | 9 |
| Receiving yards | 81 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 3.52 |
| Yards per target | 9 |
| Catch rate | 77.78% |
| Snap share | 39.83% |
| Target share | 5.4% |
| Air-yards share | 8.63% |
| WOPR | 0.14 |
| RACR | 1.03 |
| Average depth of target | 16.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.7 |
| Total YAC | 27 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 141.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.47 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 3.6% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.59 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.41 |
The offense threw it 495 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Khalil Shakir | 19.83% |
| Keon Coleman | 12.32% |
| Dawson Knox | 10.23% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 10.23% |
| James Cook | 8.35% |
| Josh Palmer | 7.72% |
2 of his 6 games were blowouts, 14.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.55 in those and 6.1 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 11 against KC — 16.8 PPR on 6 targets and a 15.8% target share, in a game that finished 30-21. His worst was Week 9 against MIA at 0, on 1 targets, final score 30-27. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.1; in the 7 decided by more, 5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.6 points per game. He scored 4.55, 6.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 34-28 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8.7% | 27% |
| 2 | MIA | 31-10 | 1.3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11.1% | 27% |
| 3 | JAX | 47-10 | 5.2 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 10% | 27% |
| 4 | BAL | 10-35 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7.4% | 37% |
| 5 | HOU | 20-23 | 0.9 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13.8% | 56% |
| 6 | NYJ | 23-20 | 7.4 | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 17.4% | 36% |
| 7 | TEN | 34-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.1% | 4% |
| 9 | MIA | 30-27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.8% | 26% |
| 10 | IND | 30-20 | 7.5 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 | 22.9% | 89% |
| 11 | KC | 30-21 | 16.8 | 5 | 6 | 58 | 1 | 15.8% | 60% |
| 13 | SF | 35-10 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 38% |
| 14 | LA | 42-44 | 3.6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 8.1% | 60% |
| 15 | DET | 48-42 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6.3% | 27% |
| 18 | NE | 16-23 | 12.2 | 7 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 25.8% | 67% |
| Receptions | 31 |
| Targets | 46 |
| Receiving yards | 253 |
| Carries | 5 |
| Rushing yards | 14 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 4.55 |
| Yards per target | 5.5 |
| Catch rate | 67.39% |
| Yards per carry | 2.8 |
| Snap share | 41.5% |
| Target share | 10.94% |
| Air-yards share | 6.66% |
| WOPR | 0.211 |
| RACR | 2.818 |
| Average depth of target | 4.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3 |
| Total YAC | 160 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 79.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.74 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.14 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.7% |
| End-zone target share | 9.4% |
| Red-zone carry share | 0.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.84 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.16 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.14 |
The offense threw it 520 times. He took 9.29% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Khalil Shakir | 20.2% |
| Dalton Kincaid | 15.15% |
| Keon Coleman | 11.52% |
| Mack Hollins | 10.1% |
| Curtis Samuel ← | 9.29% |
| James Cook | 7.68% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 13 | 38 | 3.96 | 5.29 | 9.8% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 8 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 25.8% |
5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 16.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.14 in those and 4.1 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 15 against LA — 21.1 PPR on 9 targets and a 26.5% target share, in a game that finished 20-28. His worst was Week 11 against NYG at 1.5, on 2 targets, final score 19-31. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.9; in the 7 decided by more, 9.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.8 points per game. He scored 9.83, 0.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 20-16 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 17.2% | 65% |
| 2 | DEN | 35-33 | 6.2 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 8.8% | 62% |
| 3 | BUF | 3-37 | 7.4 | 2 | 4 | 54 | 0 | 13.8% | 74% |
| 4 | PHI | 31-34 | 18.2 | 7 | 8 | 51 | 1 | 20.5% | 69% |
| 5 | CHI | 20-40 | 18.5 | 6 | 7 | 65 | 1 | 14.6% | 70% |
| 6 | ATL | 24-16 | 14.2 | 4 | 4 | 42 | 1 | 19% | 63% |
| 7 | NYG | 7-14 | 6.5 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 22.2% | 55% |
| 8 | PHI | 31-38 | 6.2 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 7.8% | 19% |
| 10 | SEA | 26-29 | 2.6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 14.3% | 51% |
| 11 | NYG | 19-31 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4.8% | 16% |
| 12 | DAL | 10-45 | 19 | 9 | 12 | 100 | 0 | 27.3% | 55% |
| 13 | MIA | 15-45 | 10.5 | 4 | 5 | 65 | 0 | 22.7% | 58% |
| 15 | LA | 20-28 | 21.1 | 5 | 9 | 41 | 2 | 26.5% | 72% |
| 16 | NYJ | 28-30 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 18.8% | 66% |
| 17 | SF | 10-27 | 6.3 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 15.4% | 50% |
| 18 | DAL | 10-38 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 14.3% | 57% |
| Receptions | 62 |
| Targets | 91 |
| Receiving yards | 613 |
| Carries | 7 |
| Rushing yards | 39 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 9.83 |
| Yards per target | 6.74 |
| Catch rate | 68.13% |
| Yards per carry | 5.57 |
| Snap share | 56.38% |
| Target share | 16.75% |
| Air-yards share | 14.64% |
| WOPR | 0.354 |
| RACR | 2.274 |
| Average depth of target | 6.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.7 |
| Total YAC | 260 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 83.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.37 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.24 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 23.2% |
| End-zone target share | 24.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 5.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.12 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.12 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.57 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 44 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 45 of 51 |
| Target share | 46 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 49 of 51 |
The offense threw it 636 times. He took 15.17% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Terry McLaurin | 22% |
| Curtis Samuel ← | 15.17% |
| Jahan Dotson | 13.83% |
| Logan Thomas | 13% |
| Antonio Gibson | 9.83% |
| Brian Robinson | 7.17% |
6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 42.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.12 in those and 9.89 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against DET — 22.9 PPR on 9 targets and a 20.5% target share, in a game that finished 27-36. His worst was Week 18 against DAL at 0.4, on 1 targets, final score 26-6. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.9; in the 8 decided by more, 9.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.2 points per game. He scored 10.37, 12.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 28-22 | 19.2 | 8 | 11 | 55 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 26.8% | 71% |
| 2 | DET | 27-36 | 22.9 | 7 | 9 | 78 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 20.5% | 89% |
| 3 | PHI | 8-24 | 13.1 | 7 | 10 | 48 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 23.8% | 83% |
| 4 | DAL | 10-25 | 7.8 | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.5% | 78% |
| 5 | TEN | 17-21 | 12.2 | 6 | 8 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.6% | 90% |
| 6 | CHI | 12-7 | 2.6 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22.7% | 86% |
| 7 | GB | 23-21 | 12.9 | 5 | 8 | 53 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 25% | 77% |
| 8 | IND | 17-16 | 10.9 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 13.3% | 74% |
| 9 | MIN | 17-20 | 17.1 | 3 | 4 | 65 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 15.4% | 75% |
| 10 | PHI | 32-21 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 16% | 64% |
| 11 | HOU | 23-10 | 9.8 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 8.7% | 60% |
| 12 | ATL | 19-13 | 1.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 60% |
| 13 | NYG | 20-20 | 14.6 | 6 | 7 | 63 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 17.5% | 66% |
| 15 | NYG | 12-20 | 7.5 | 3 | 5 | 44 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18.5% | 59% |
| 16 | SF | 20-37 | 16.4 | 5 | 5 | 52 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 14.7% | 66% |
| 17 | CLE | 10-24 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.1% | 64% |
| 18 | DAL | 26-6 | 0.4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 5.6% | 53% |
| Receptions | 64 |
| Targets | 92 |
| Receiving yards | 656 |
| Carries | 38 |
| Rushing yards | 187 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 10.37 |
| Yards per target | 7.13 |
| Catch rate | 69.57% |
| Yards per carry | 4.92 |
| Snap share | 71.47% |
| Target share | 16.16% |
| Air-yards share | 13.65% |
| WOPR | 0.338 |
| RACR | 1.055 |
| Average depth of target | 6.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.7 |
| Total YAC | 289 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 95.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.46 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.7% |
| End-zone target share | 9.1% |
| Red-zone carry share | 8.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.23 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.23 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.47 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 43 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 42 of 51 |
| Target share | 45 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 50 of 51 |
The offense threw it 554 times. He took 17.33% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Terry McLaurin | 22.6% |
| Curtis Samuel ← | 17.33% |
| Logan Thomas | 11.49% |
| Jahan Dotson | 11.49% |
| Antonio Gibson | 10.92% |
| J.D. McKissic | 7.53% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 9 | 39 | 10.72 | 9.36 | 14.34% |
| Carson Wentz | 7 | 52 | 11.34 | 5.63 | 20% |
| Sam Howell | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | -2 | 5.6% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 9.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.4 in those and 10.92 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 4 against ATL — 5.9 PPR on 4 targets and a 12.1% target share, in a game that finished 34-30. His worst was Week 14 against DAL at 0, on 2 targets, final score 20-27. Across 5 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times.
His usage that season was worth 3.1 points per game. He scored 1.96, 37.2% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | ATL | 34-30 | 5.9 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 12.1% | 37% |
| 5 | NO | 22-33 | 0.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.4% | 6% |
| 12 | SEA | 17-15 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2.9% | 24% |
| 13 | LV | 17-15 | 0.8 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3.3% | 30% |
| 14 | DAL | 20-27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.1% | 21% |
| Receptions | 6 |
| Targets | 9 |
| Receiving yards | 27 |
| Carries | 4 |
| Rushing yards | 11 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.96 |
| Yards per target | 3 |
| Catch rate | 66.67% |
| Yards per carry | 2.75 |
| Snap share | 23.6% |
| Target share | 5.36% |
| Air-yards share | 0.68% |
| WOPR | 0.084 |
| RACR | 0 |
| Average depth of target | 2.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.2 |
| Total YAC | 40 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 30.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.01 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.38 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.7% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.14 |
The offense threw it 550 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Terry McLaurin | 24.39% |
| Adam Humphries | 11.63% |
| J.D. McKissic | 9.94% |
| Antonio Gibson | 9.76% |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 9.19% |
| DeAndre Carter | 8.26% |
His best game was Week 9 against KC — 26.8 PPR on 9 targets and a 20.5% target share, in a game that finished 31-33. His worst was Week 10 against TB at 4.2, on 5 targets, final score 23-46. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.4; in the 5 decided by more, 11.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.7 points per game. He scored 14.14, 21.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 30-34 | 9.3 | 5 | 8 | 38 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 23.5% | 75% |
| 2 | TB | 17-31 | 5.9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 5% | 70% |
| 3 | LAC | 21-16 | 9.2 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 14.8% | 65% |
| 4 | ARI | 31-21 | 7.8 | 3 | 4 | 51 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 11.1% | 47% |
| 5 | ATL | 23-16 | 11.4 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 14.7% | 74% |
| 7 | NO | 24-27 | 17.3 | 6 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 22.2% | 48% |
| 8 | ATL | 17-25 | 21.4 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 19.2% | 76% |
| 9 | KC | 31-33 | 26.8 | 9 | 9 | 105 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 20.5% | 72% |
| 10 | TB | 23-46 | 4.2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 17.9% | 71% |
| 11 | DET | 20-0 | 21.4 | 8 | 10 | 70 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 28.6% | 68% |
| 12 | MIN | 27-28 | 12.7 | 5 | 5 | 72 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 15.6% | 65% |
| 14 | DEN | 27-32 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 68 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 23.1% | 79% |
| 15 | GB | 16-24 | 8.8 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 26.5% | 84% |
| 16 | WAS | 20-13 | 20.8 | 5 | 5 | 106 | 7 | 52 | 0 | 17.9% | 57% |
| 17 | NO | 7-33 | 19.1 | 7 | 11 | 118 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 30.6% | 71% |
| Receptions | 77 |
| Targets | 97 |
| Receiving yards | 851 |
| Carries | 41 |
| Rushing yards | 200 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 14.14 |
| Yards per target | 8.77 |
| Catch rate | 79.38% |
| Yards per carry | 4.88 |
| Snap share | 68.13% |
| Target share | 19.41% |
| Air-yards share | 17.99% |
| WOPR | 0.417 |
| RACR | 1.417 |
| Average depth of target | 7.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.9 |
| Total YAC | 320 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 109.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.52 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.24 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 20% |
| End-zone target share | 11.8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 12.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 4.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.59 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.59 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.12 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 24 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 19 of 51 |
| Target share | 35 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 48 of 51 |
The offense threw it 549 times. He took 18.44% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Robbie Chosen | 25.86% |
| D.J. Moore | 22.43% |
| Curtis Samuel ← | 18.44% |
| Mike Davis | 13.31% |
| Ian Thomas | 5.89% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3.61% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 14 | 87 | 13.62 | 8.98 | 18.76% |
| P.J. Walker | 1 | 10 | 21.4 | 7 | 28.6% |
3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 21.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.9 in those and 15.37 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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