RB · LV · GWTTKB

Raheem Mostert — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 2.45 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 2.7.

33 years old · 11 seasons of experience · 2015 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 170
Consensus across 1 books, 0 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on espn, priciest on espn.
ESPN170
FFA446

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankRB71

The offense he plays in, 2026

Las Vegas Raiders returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, hc, oc. Kirk Cousins at quarterback, Klint Kubiak as head coach, Andrew Janocko calling it. The offense projects to 32.2 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.

In: Kirk Cousins (qb), Fernando Mendoza (qb2), Jalen Nailor (wr1), Malik Benson (wr5), Dareke Young (wr6), Philip Dorsett II (wr7), Mike Washington Jr (rb2), Chris Collier (rb4). Out: Geno Smith (qb), Jach Bech (wr2), Tyler Lockett (wr3), Raheem Mostert (rb2), Zamir White (rb3).

The projected carry split across the offense:

Ashton Jeanty66.7%
Mike Washington Jr24%
Dylan Laube6%
Chris Collier3.3%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: If this offense can click, the top players in this offense will all have their values increase significantly. There is talent here: Bowers, Jeanty, Mendoza. But this WR corp is lacking, however Tucker, Nailor, Bech, and even Thornton Jr have a huge opportunity to step up.

Key additions: Drafted Fernando Mendoza 1 overall. Kirk Cousins signed in free agency on vet minimum deal. C Tyler Linderbaum landed HUGE deal coming over from Baltimore (top center in NFL). WR Jalen Nailor landed a 3 year deal & COULD be raiders WR1 IF no other veterans are brought in.

Key departures: QB Geno Smith was traded to the Jets.

Notes: Mendoza 1.01 franchise QB of the future. Raiders also signed Kirk Cousins & he is assumed week 1 starter. Mendoza may not play early half of season unless beats Cousins out in camp. Raiders spent big in free agency and O line should be better but still bad. Buy Bowers long-term. Monitor Mendoza development. Raiders will probably sign a veteran WR who could operate as WR1, either Jauan Jennings or Diggs or Tyreek Hill or Keenan Allen potentially. Tyreek Hill also an option. Mike Washington Jr will back up Ashton Jeanty. New HC Klint Kubiak former Seahawks OC should also boost offense creativity.

How the volume number was reached: New QB Kirk Cousins, avg 29.6 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.1 att/g; New OC Andrew Janocko — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Klint Kubiak.

Offensive environment: LV rates 19.6 against a league average of 23, 3.4 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-3.8 · harder
Weeks 1–6-4.4 · harder
Weeks 12–17-4.4 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-2 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20204Jeffery Wilson+15.3
20222Jeffery Wilson+1.9

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -57% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, RBs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Chase Edmonds20233.179%-17.9%
Cordarrelle Patterson20242.975%+162.1%
Jeffery Wilson20241.570%+12.5%
Jamaal Williams20242.766%+9.7%
Ty Johnson20233.666%+161.8%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. Down 81% across the series, peaking at 4,303.

The player

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game9.2
Week-to-week variation0.8
Boom rate18.4%
Bust rate30.6%
Games missed per season1.6
Injury historyKnee, Ankle, Thumb, Chest
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score-0.16

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · LV · 12 games

His best game was Week 4 against CHI — 8.3 PPR on 5 touches and a 5% target share, in a game that finished 24-25. His worst was Week 6 against TEN at -0.4, on 5 touches, final score 20-10. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.3; in the 7 decided by more, 1.9. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.7 points per game. He scored 2.45, 10.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
4CHI24-258.3111146205%15%
5IND6-402.200072200%47%
6TEN20-10-0.40005-400%21%
7KC0-311.21120005.9%26%
9JAX29-302.411140002.6%9%
10DEN7-102.511111404%13%
11DAL16-333.32272605.1%25%
12CLE10-24533181207.1%19%
13LAC14-310.60001600%4%
14DEN17-241.21120003.6%30%
15PHI0-311.21120004%24%
16HOU21-231.91131604.5%7%

Production

Receptions12
Targets12
Receiving yards70
Carries22
Rushing yards104
Touchdowns0
Points per game2.45
Yards per target5.83
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry4.73

Role

Snap share20%
Target share3.48%
Air-yards share-0.77%
WOPR0.048
RACR-1.725

Efficiency

Average depth of target-1.3
Yards after catch per reception7.2
Yards before catch per reception-1.3
Total YAC86
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted91
Receiving EPA per game0.12
Rushing EPA per game-0.76

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.7%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share8.7%
Expected receiving TDs0.29
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.29
Expected rushing TDs0.27

Who else ate

The offense threw it 515 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tre Tucker18.66%
Brock Bowers17.44%
Ashton Jeanty14.81%
Michael Mayer10.14%
Jakobi Meyers9.94%
Tyler Lockett6.9%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Geno Smith11112.566.183.44%
Kenny Pickett111.224%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 12 games were blowouts, 28.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.7 in those and 3.26 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · MIA · 13 games

His best game was Week 8 against ARI — 16 PPR on 11 touches and a 5.3% target share, in a game that finished 27-28. His worst was Week 11 against LV at -0.2, on 3 touches, final score 34-19. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.7; in the 6 decided by more, 2.8. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7.5 points per game. He scored 5.45, 21.7% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1JAX20-173.923106908.3%44%
5NE15-1011.82218198006.5%56%
7IND10-163000115000%33%
8ARI27-2816121191925.3%46%
9BUF27-308.82232105607.4%23%
10LA23-155.4233400010.7%15%
11LV34-19-0.20003-200%15%
12NE34-151.211-32502.5%31%
13GB17-305.4231551906.5%35%
15HOU12-205.133136807.7%38%
16SF29-176.6221583106.5%31%
17CLE20-33.922166308.3%40%
18NYJ20-3200000000%1%

Production

Receptions19
Targets23
Receiving yards161
Carries85
Rushing yards278
Touchdowns2
Points per game5.45
Yards per target7
Catch rate82.61%
Yards per carry3.27

Role

Snap share31.38%
Target share5.36%
Air-yards share0.52%
WOPR0.085
RACR1.32

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.6
Yards after catch per reception7.7
Yards before catch per reception0.8
Total YAC146
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted95.8
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.85
Rushing EPA per game-2.32

Scoring position

Red-zone targets2
Red-zone target share2.4%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share21.1%
Goal-line carry share20%
Expected receiving TDs0.28
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.28
Expected rushing TDs2.72

Who else ate

The offense threw it 591 times. He took 4.14% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyreek Hill21.94%
Jonnu Smith19.96%
De'Von Achane15.65%
Jaylen Waddle14.93%
Malik Washington6.47%
Raheem Mostert 4.14%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Tua Tagovailoa9195.86.686.1%
Tyler Huntley345.238.54.93%
Tim Boyle1030%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 13 games were blowouts, 7.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.55 in those and 7.71 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · MIA · 15 games

His best game was Week 3 against DEN — 45.2 PPR on 20 touches and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 70-20. His worst was Week 4 against BUF at 5.5, on 12 touches, final score 20-48. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.4; in the 9 decided by more, 18.8. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 11.2 points per game. He scored 17.85, 51.1% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.62 expected, a gap of 1.4.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1LAC36-34132213103714.5%73%
2NE24-1725.71161812123.4%73%
3DEN70-2045.277601382425%51%
4BUF20-485.5353679014.7%43%
5NYG31-1615.82213106517.1%59%
6CAR42-2134.2331717115310%61%
7PHI17-316.113694509.4%53%
8NE31-1710.6000134610%56%
9KC14-2114.5010128513%56%
11LV20-1310.3127228605.6%79%
12NYJ34-1321.4010209423.6%60%
13WAS45-1512.1118114314%38%
14TEN27-2823114219623%64%
15NYJ30-018.3221154227.7%54%
16DAL22-2012114114612.8%29%

Production

Receptions25
Targets32
Receiving yards175
Carries209
Rushing yards1,012
Touchdowns21
Points per game17.85
Yards per target5.47
Catch rate78.13%
Yards per carry4.84

Role

Snap share56.6%
Target share6.92%
Air-yards share-1.01%
WOPR0.097
RACR0.273

Efficiency

Average depth of target-0.6
Yards after catch per reception8.5
Yards before catch per reception-1.5
Total YAC213
Broken tackles6
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted107.7
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-0.08
Rushing EPA per game1.14

Scoring position

Red-zone targets6
Red-zone target share8.3%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share50.5%
Goal-line carry share69%
Expected receiving TDs1.62
Actual receiving TDs3
Receiving TD luck1.38
Expected rushing TDs10.77

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game4 of 49
Yards per target20 of 49
Target share37 of 49
Air-yards share33 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 566 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyreek Hill32.08%
Jaylen Waddle19.51%
Durham Smythe8.07%
Cedrick Wilson7.13%
De'Von Achane6.94%
Braxton Berrios6.19%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 15 games were blowouts, 51.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 22.78 in those and 16.42 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · MIA · 16 games

His best game was Week 17 against NE — 23.1 PPR on 17 touches and a 20% target share, in a game that finished 21-23. His worst was Week 3 against BUF at 1.1, on 10 touches, final score 21-19. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.3; in the 5 decided by more, 11. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 11 points per game. He scored 10.52, 4.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1NE20-74.2111651603.2%42%
2BAL42-3810.93328115106%55%
3BUF21-191.1020811010%56%
4CIN15-2710.12312156908.3%72%
5NYJ17-4019.21391811319.4%69%
6MIN16-245.812-1144904.4%62%
7PIT16-1020.945301679114.3%71%
8DET31-277.7113146402.9%65%
9CHI35-328.602092616.9%47%
10CLE39-1718.74422865112.1%28%
13SF17-33300073000%61%
14LAC17-235.4117113704.2%73%
15BUF29-3216.612201713606.7%76%
16GB20-264.9234845012.5%52%
17NE21-2323.18862929120%42%
18NYJ11-68.122-10117107.4%37%

Production

Receptions31
Targets42
Receiving yards202
Carries181
Rushing yards891
Touchdowns5
Points per game10.52
Yards per target4.81
Catch rate73.81%
Yards per carry4.92

Role

Snap share56.75%
Target share8.02%
Air-yards share0.97%
WOPR0.126
RACR1.379

Efficiency

Average depth of target1.1
Yards after catch per reception5.8
Yards before catch per reception0.7
Total YAC179
Broken tackles8
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted89.6
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.09
Rushing EPA per game-0.06

Scoring position

Red-zone targets7
Red-zone target share10.3%
End-zone target share3.6%
Red-zone carry share38.2%
Goal-line carry share33.3%
Expected receiving TDs1.73
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck0.27
Expected rushing TDs3.24

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game28 of 42
Yards per target24 of 42
Target share24 of 42
Air-yards share8 of 42

Who else ate

The offense threw it 584 times. He took 7.79% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyreek Hill31.54%
Jaylen Waddle21.71%
Mike Gesicki9.65%
Trent Sherfield9.46%
Raheem Mostert 7.79%
Jeffery Wilson4.45%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Tua Tagovailoa11249.275.427.16%
Skylar Thompson31316.84.6912.27%
Teddy Bridgewater257.952.26.35%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 22.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.95 in those and 10.28 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2021 · SF · 1 games

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 1.2 points per game. He scored 2, 66.7% above it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1DET41-33200022000%7%

Production

Receptions0
Targets0
Receiving yards0
Carries2
Rushing yards20
Touchdowns0
Points per game2
Yards per carry10

Role

Snap share7%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%
WOPR0
RACR0

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game1.52

Who else ate

The offense threw it 514 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Deebo Samuel26.42%
George Kittle20.52%
Brandon Aiyuk18.34%
Jauan Jennings8.3%
Jamycal Hasty6.33%
Mohamed Sanu5.24%

2020 · SF · 8 games

His best game was Week 1 against ARI — 25.1 PPR on 20 touches and a 15.6% target share, in a game that finished 20-24. His worst was Week 13 against BUF at 5.3, on 10 touches, final score 24-34. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.2; in the 3 decided by more, 13. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 12 points per game. He scored 12.46, 4.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1ARI20-2425.145951556115.6%60%
2NYJ31-1318.7221589217.4%21%
5MIA17-4314.93329119008.6%48%
6LA24-169.62211176506.3%48%
12LA23-2010.3220164315.9%40%
13BUF24-345.311194202.6%44%
14WAS15-239245146509.1%49%
15DAL33-416.8000146800%30%

Production

Receptions16
Targets19
Receiving yards156
Carries104
Rushing yards521
Touchdowns3
Points per game12.46
Yards per target8.21
Catch rate84.21%
Yards per carry5.01

Role

Snap share42.5%
Target share6.94%
Air-yards share0.79%
WOPR0.109
RACR0.769

Efficiency

Average depth of target1.1
Yards after catch per reception8.5
Yards before catch per reception1.3
Total YAC136
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted118.4
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.68
Rushing EPA per game-1.33

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share15.5%
Goal-line carry share24%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs2.94

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game27 of 47
Yards per target5 of 47
Target share28 of 47
Air-yards share17 of 47

Who else ate

The offense threw it 570 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Brandon Aiyuk18.29%
Kendrick Bourne14.1%
George Kittle12%
Jordan Reed8.76%
Jerick McKinnon8.76%
Deebo Samuel8.38%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Nick Mullens477.850.864.4%
Jimmy Garoppolo3917.813.449.77%
C.J. Beathard1314.99.678.6%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 33.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.8 in those and 12.16 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

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