RB · HOU · GWTTKB

Nick Chubb — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.89 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 169.9, usage worth 7.

30 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 169.9
Consensus across 1 books, 0 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on underdog, priciest on espn.
ESPN169.9
UNDERDOG216
FFA350

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankRB58

The offense he plays in, 2026

Houston Texans returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. CJ Stroud at quarterback, Demeco Ryans as head coach, Nick Caley calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.5 rushes.

In: Nathaniel Dell (wr3), Lewis Bond (wr7), David Montgomery (rb1), Noah Whittington (rb4), Foster Moreau (te2). Out: Nick Chubb (rb2), Cade Stover (te2).

The projected carry split across the offense:

David Montgomery38.8%
Woody Marks34.3%
Jawhar Jordan24.6%
Noah Whittington2.3%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: If this offense could produce at a higher level than 2025, this will be an offense you want to have pieces of. David Montgomery COULD be a very interesting high end RB2 as long as RB Woody Marks does not eat into his PT too much. Houston also has arguably the best defense in the entire NFL. they will keep them in every game & force turnovers to get this offense the ball back.

Key additions: Texans signed starting LG Wyatt Teller & starting RT Braden Smith this offseason. Also drafted C Keylan Rutledge in the 1st round. all 3 upgrades to last year. Should help protect CJ Stroud & HOPEFULLY GET A RUN GAME GOING IN HOUSTON. Traded for Lions RB David Montgomery. Joe mixon saw great success in 2024 & Montgomery COULD see a high degree of success too. Drafted WR Lewis Bond as well who does not have immediate upside.

Notes: Nico Collins remains a high producing dynasty WR when CJ Stroud plays well. Texans have to improve O line play for offense to provide large fantasy relevance. Traded for David Montgomery from the Lions & He will operate as RB1 with Woody Marks expected to also work in. CJ Stroud has struggled since his rookie season & is a mid range QB2 most weeks in fantasy. Texans do expect to extend him long term despite poor play. Jayden Higgins is an interesting year 2 breakout candidate but Tank Dell also returns in 2026 (We will see if his knee still works).

How the volume number was reached: Same QB CJ Stroud returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.2 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g.

Offensive environment: HOU rates 22.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+0.6 · neutral
Weeks 1–6+3.8 · easier
Weeks 12–17-0.9 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-5.1 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20212D'Ernest Johnson+7.9
20242D'Onta Foreman+5.3

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -47% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, RBs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Jamaal Williams20234.767%-26.9%
Dalvin Cook20232.963%-39.8%
Devin Singletary20246.461%+6.7%
Jamaal Williams20242.760%+9.7%
D'Onta Foreman20243.359%-20.7%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,0008,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. Down 88% across the series, peaking at 8,376.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2018, round 2, pick 35 by CLE
CollegeGeorgia
Age at draft22
Height5′11″
Weight227 lb
40-yard dash4.52s
Vertical38.5″
Broad jump128″
3-cone7.09s
Shuttle4.25s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game12.5
Week-to-week variation0.6
Boom rate13.7%
Bust rate23.5%
Games missed per season0.8
Injury historyCalf, Knee
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.22

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · HOU · 15 games

His best game was Week 2 against TB — 15.2 PPR on 14 touches and a 8.7% target share, in a game that finished 19-20. His worst was Week 17 against LAC at 0.1, on 1 touches, final score 20-16. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.3; in the 4 decided by more, 7.4. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7 points per game. He scored 5.89, 20.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1LA9-146010136003.7%51%
2TB19-2015.22229124318.7%53%
3JAX10-177342938011.1%52%
4TEN26-08.22215134707.1%42%
5BAL44-1012.1010116113.2%34%
7SEA19-272.113-551606.5%25%
8SF26-158.92213175605.3%44%
9DEN15-183.4000113400%36%
10JAX36-296.211554702.3%13%
11TEN16-131.702031705%26%
12BUF23-192.511-161603.6%22%
13IND20-169.400093410%34%
14KC20-100.30001300%11%
16LV23-215.211963302.9%32%
17LAC20-160.10001100%8%

Production

Receptions13
Targets20
Receiving yards67
Carries122
Rushing yards506
Touchdowns3
Points per game5.89
Yards per target3.35
Catch rate65%
Yards per carry4.15

Role

Snap share32.2%
Target share3.96%
Air-yards share0.41%
WOPR0.063
RACR-0.067

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.7
Yards after catch per reception4.8
Yards before catch per reception0.3
Total YAC63
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted70.2
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-0.16
Rushing EPA per game-0.91

Scoring position

Red-zone targets2
Red-zone target share2.4%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share15.5%
Goal-line carry share26.1%
Expected receiving TDs0.3
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.3
Expected rushing TDs2.68

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game48 of 49
Yards per target45 of 49
Target share43 of 49
Air-yards share12 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 582 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Nico Collins21.7%
Dalton Schultz19.17%
Jayden Higgins12.3%
Xavier Hutchinson10.31%
Christian Kirk9.4%
Woody Marks6.51%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
C.J. Stroud11166.773.944.41%
Davis Mills443.4512.73%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 15 games were blowouts, 23% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.15 in those and 5.35 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · CLE · 8 games

His best game was Week 12 against PIT — 19 PPR on 21 touches and a 3.7% target share, in a game that finished 24-19. His worst was Week 15 against KC at 2.1, on 10 touches, final score 7-21. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.5; in the 5 decided by more, 5.8. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 10.3 points per game. He scored 7.91, 23.3% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
7CIN14-2110.21310112216.3%36%
8BAL29-245.2020165204.9%59%
9LAC10-274.511-4153902.2%35%
11NO14-355000115000%30%
12PIT24-1919111205923.7%66%
13DEN32-4112.5222492113.5%34%
14PIT14-274.8010114802.7%36%
15KC7-212.101094103.1%34%

Production

Receptions5
Targets11
Receiving yards31
Carries102
Rushing yards332
Touchdowns4
Points per game7.91
Yards per target2.82
Catch rate45.45%
Yards per carry3.25

Role

Snap share41.25%
Target share3.3%
Air-yards share-0.06%
WOPR0.049
RACR0.334

Efficiency

Average depth of target-0.5
Yards after catch per reception6.2
Yards before catch per reception0
Total YAC31
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted43.2
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-2.04
Rushing EPA per game-2.57

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.6%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share35.3%
Goal-line carry share33.3%
Expected receiving TDs0.48
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.52
Expected rushing TDs3.4

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game38 of 46
Yards per target44 of 46
Target share41 of 46
Air-yards share14 of 46

Who else ate

The offense threw it 661 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jerry Jeudy22.87%
Elijah Moore16.09%
David Njoku15.3%
Jordan Akins9.15%
Amari Cooper8.36%
Cedric Tillman7.73%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Jameis Winston787.592.632.87%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson1310.23.336.3%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 15% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.75 in those and 11.47 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · CLE · 2 games

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 11.3 points per game. He scored 11.55, 2.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1CIN24-316.7442118106013.8%49%
2PIT22-266.4000106400%21%

Production

Receptions4
Targets4
Receiving yards21
Carries28
Rushing yards170
Touchdowns0
Points per game11.55
Yards per target5.25
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry6.07

Role

Snap share35%
Target share6.9%
Air-yards share0.15%
WOPR0.105
RACR10.5

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.3
Yards after catch per reception5
Yards before catch per reception0.3
Total YAC20
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted88.5
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.38
Rushing EPA per game2.05

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share4.1%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.28

Who else ate

The offense threw it 624 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Amari Cooper21.44%
David Njoku20.6%
Elijah Moore17.42%
Jerome Ford10.55%
Cedric Tillman7.37%
Jordan Akins3.85%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 2 games were blowouts, 72.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.7 in those and 6.4 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · CLE · 17 games

His best game was Week 2 against NYJ — 32.3 PPR on 20 touches and a 11.1% target share, in a game that finished 30-31. His worst was Week 13 against HOU at 8, on 18 touches, final score 27-14. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.2; in the 9 decided by more, 14.2. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 14.4 points per game. He scored 16.55, 15.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1CAR26-2415.31122214103.3%53%
2NYJ30-3132.333261787311.1%54%
3PIT29-1717.30102311313.2%63%
4ATL20-2320.72391911818.6%55%
5LAC28-3025.40101713423.1%52%
6NE15-3881214125604.8%44%
7BAL20-2318.723161691112%57%
8CIN32-1325.41132310125%51%
10MIA17-3915.134181163111.8%48%
11BUF23-319.73348141907.7%55%
12TB23-1720.211162611612.8%59%
13HOU27-148010178004.8%51%
14CIN10-238.43320143407.7%63%
15BAL13-39.9020219907.7%70%
16NO10-1711.21110249203.7%53%
17WAS24-1012.611121410406.3%56%
18PIT14-2823.256451277122.2%75%

Production

Receptions27
Targets37
Receiving yards239
Carries302
Rushing yards1,525
Touchdowns13
Points per game16.55
Yards per target6.46
Catch rate72.97%
Yards per carry5.05

Role

Snap share56.41%
Target share7.4%
Air-yards share-0.01%
WOPR0.111
RACR0.754

Efficiency

Average depth of target0
Yards after catch per reception9.6
Yards before catch per reception-0.7
Total YAC259
Broken tackles3
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted98.8
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.47
Rushing EPA per game0.84

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.4%
End-zone target share3.1%
Red-zone carry share51.9%
Goal-line carry share60%
Expected receiving TDs0.45
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.55
Expected rushing TDs7.31

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game7 of 42
Yards per target9 of 42
Target share28 of 42
Air-yards share19 of 42

Who else ate

The offense threw it 540 times. He took 7.31% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Amari Cooper26.09%
Donovan Peoples-Jones18.97%
David Njoku15.81%
Kareem Hunt8.7%
Harrison Bryant8.3%
Nick Chubb 7.31%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Jacoby Brissett112318.926.616.67%
Deshaun Watson61412.226.218.73%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 17.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.17 in those and 19.19 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · CLE · 14 games

His best game was Week 9 against CIN — 30.3 PPR on 16 touches and a 10.5% target share, in a game that finished 41-16. His worst was Week 17 against PIT at 5.8, on 13 touches, final score 14-26. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.4; in the 4 decided by more, 15.3. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 12.8 points per game. He scored 15.38, 20.1% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1KC29-3322.12218158327.4%53%
2HOU31-2116.8113119514.8%57%
3CHI26-68.4000228400%49%
4MIN14-711.51152110003.2%47%
5LAC42-47241192116113.4%56%
8PIT10-157.9118166103.2%56%
9CIN41-1630.3222614137210.5%56%
11DET13-1022.422142213017.1%57%
12BAL10-165.92423816011.8%50%
14BAL24-229.53461759012.9%66%
15LV14-1616.3112239113.4%66%
16GB22-2427.4345817126111.1%60%
17PIT14-265.8010125802.8%42%
18CIN21-16711295804.2%24%

Production

Receptions20
Targets25
Receiving yards174
Carries228
Rushing yards1,259
Touchdowns9
Points per game15.38
Yards per target6.96
Catch rate80%
Yards per carry5.52

Role

Snap share52.79%
Target share6.13%
Air-yards share0%
WOPR0.092
RACR-0.981

Efficiency

Average depth of target1
Yards after catch per reception8.6
Yards before catch per reception0.1
Total YAC172
Broken tackles4
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted109
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.58
Rushing EPA per game0.76

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.7%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share45.6%
Goal-line carry share52.4%
Expected receiving TDs0.47
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.53
Expected rushing TDs7.23

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game11 of 50
Yards per target10 of 50
Target share40 of 50
Air-yards share25 of 50

Who else ate

The offense threw it 520 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jarvis Landry17.65%
Austin Hooper12.37%
Donovan Peoples-Jones11.76%
David Njoku10.75%
Rashard Higgins9.53%
Odell Beckham6.9%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Baker Mayfield1223167.396.52%
Nick Mullens1116.323.4%
Case Keenum11724.2%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 14 games were blowouts, 18% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.35 in those and 15.4 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2020 · CLE · 12 games

His best game was Week 12 against JAX — 26.6 PPR on 22 touches and a 11.1% target share, in a game that finished 27-25. His worst was Week 4 against DAL at 4.3, on 6 touches, final score 49-38. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.9; in the 4 decided by more, 12.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 13.1 points per game. He scored 17.31, 31.7% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1BAL6-385.6116106002.9%48%
2CIN35-3026.31192212424.8%62%
3WAS34-20241121910824.5%54%
4DAL49-384.300064300%18%
10HOU10-718.60101912615.3%43%
11PHI22-1711.40002011400%45%
12JAX27-2526.6333219144111.1%61%
13TEN41-3517.61126188013.1%49%
14BAL42-4724.32221178224.5%52%
15NYG20-614.62216155016.7%59%
16NYJ16-2317.655381128110%58%
17PIT24-2216.80101410813.8%44%

Production

Receptions16
Targets18
Receiving yards150
Carries190
Rushing yards1,067
Touchdowns12
Points per game17.31
Yards per target8.33
Catch rate88.89%
Yards per carry5.62

Role

Snap share49.42%
Target share4.73%
Air-yards share1.57%
WOPR0.082
RACR-0.583

Efficiency

Average depth of target2.7
Yards after catch per reception8.3
Yards before catch per reception1.1
Total YAC133
Broken tackles4
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted101.4
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.41
Rushing EPA per game1.41

Scoring position

Red-zone targets3
Red-zone target share3.8%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share37.3%
Goal-line carry share42.9%
Expected receiving TDs0.6
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.6
Expected rushing TDs7.19

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game7 of 47
Yards per target3 of 47
Target share37 of 47
Air-yards share7 of 47

Who else ate

The offense threw it 501 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jarvis Landry21.96%
Austin Hooper15.22%
Rashard Higgins11.3%
Kareem Hunt11.09%
Odell Beckham9.35%
Harrison Bryant8.26%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 12 games were blowouts, 2.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.6 in those and 19.9 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

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