Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 8.55 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 8.4.
30 years old · 9 seasons of experience · 2017 draft class
| ESPN | 170 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| FFA | 316 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB82 |
Kansas City Chiefs returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1, oc. Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, Andy Reid as head coach, Eric Bieniemy calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25.8 rushes.
In: Justin Fields (qb2), Cyrus Allen (wr5), Andrew Armstrong (wr7), Kenneth Walker III (rb1), Emmett Johnson (rb3), Emari Demercado (rb4). Out: Marquise Brown (wr3), Isiah Pacheco (rb1), Kareem Hunt (rb2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Kenneth Walker III | 43.5% |
| Brashard Smith | 25.7% |
| Emari Demercado | 24.9% |
| Emmett Johnson | 5.8% |
What the offense looks like: Highly relevant offense to own pieces of. Mahomes needs to return to his MVP form to support WR other than Rice, but Kenneth Walker III may be about to feast in KC if he can stay healthy. Of note, if Walker were to suffer an injury, RB Emmett Johnson has a great opportunity to fill in and be a valuable back.
Key additions: OC Eric Bieniemy retuns to Chiefs as OC. Previously served as OC from 2018 - 2022. Add RB Kenneth Walker III in free agency on massive 3 year deal.
Key departures: Isiah Pacheco left Chiefs for Lions in free agency. RB Kareem Hunt is also likely gone from the team. WR Hollywood Brown also left to the Eagles in free agency. Chiefs lost RT Jawaan Taylor in free agency (mid).
Notes: Rashee Rice is slotted to operate as WR1 & holds high value for 2026 season. Mahomes should be recovered from torn ACL. Kelce is in his final season most likely. Xavier Worthy has struggled to produce, could break out, but not looking great right now. Chiefs sign Kenneth Walker III in free agency (reigning superbowl MVP RB from seahawks) and he is set for monster season. Brashard Smith should operate as receiving back and Emmett Johnson will battle for 3rd string back with Emari Demercado.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Patrick Mahomes returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.4 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g; New OC Eric Bieniemy — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Offensive environment: KC rates 24.1 against a league average of 23, 1.1 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.1 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -6 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.1 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -7.6 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -29.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, RBs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 2024 | 7.9 | 48% | -31.9% |
| Alexander Mattison | 2024 | 9.8 | 46% | -38.2% |
| Devin Singletary | 2023 | 9.8 | 44% | -18.7% |
| David Montgomery | 2024 | 15.8 | 44% | -20.4% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2023 | 10.3 | 43% | -69.6% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 5 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2017, round 3, pick 86 by KAN |
| College | Toledo |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 216 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.62s |
| Vertical | 36.5″ |
| Broad jump | 119″ |
| Career PPR per game | 9.4 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 10.3% |
| Bust rate | 29.4% |
| Games missed per season | 0.3 |
| Injury history | Ankle |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.14 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 12 against IND — 20 PPR on 33 touches and a 7% target share, in a game that finished 23-20. His worst was Week 16 against TEN at 0.2, on 3 touches, final score 9-26. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.6; in the 7 decided by more, 7.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.4 points per game. He scored 8.55, 2.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 21-27 | 4.6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 7.9% | 38% |
| 2 | PHI | 17-20 | 4.4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 3.4% | 40% |
| 3 | NYG | 22-9 | 11.4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 34 | 1 | 2.9% | 44% |
| 4 | BAL | 37-20 | 5.7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 34 | 0 | 2.9% | 44% |
| 5 | JAX | 28-31 | 18.7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 49 | 2 | 2.5% | 33% |
| 6 | DET | 30-17 | 4.4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 3.6% | 30% |
| 7 | LV | 31-0 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0% | 19% |
| 8 | WAS | 28-7 | 17.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 2 | 3.1% | 32% |
| 9 | BUF | 21-28 | 12.5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 49 | 1 | 6.9% | 78% |
| 11 | DEN | 19-22 | 13.2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 59 | 1 | 4.7% | 80% |
| 12 | IND | 23-20 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 30 | 104 | 1 | 7% | 71% |
| 13 | DAL | 28-31 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 14 | 58 | 0 | 6.3% | 64% |
| 14 | HOU | 10-20 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 30 | 1 | 3.4% | 59% |
| 15 | LAC | 13-16 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 6.7% | 49% |
| 16 | TEN | 9-26 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 24% |
| 17 | DEN | 13-20 | 3.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 38 | 0 | 0% | 56% |
| 18 | LV | 12-14 | 6.5 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 13.3% | 39% |
| Receptions | 18 |
| Targets | 25 |
| Receiving yards | 143 |
| Carries | 163 |
| Rushing yards | 611 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 8.55 |
| Yards per target | 5.72 |
| Catch rate | 72% |
| Yards per carry | 3.75 |
| Snap share | 47.06% |
| Target share | 4.39% |
| Air-yards share | -0.01% |
| WOPR | 0.065 |
| RACR | -0.276 |
| Average depth of target | 0.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.6 |
| Total YAC | 153 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 82.6 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.08 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.57 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.4% |
| End-zone target share | 4.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 43.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 71.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.1 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.1 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 7.49 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 38 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 27 of 49 |
| Target share | 41 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 19 of 49 |
The offense threw it 584 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 19.71% |
| Rashee Rice | 14.23% |
| Marquise Brown | 13.5% |
| Xavier Worthy | 13.32% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 8.21% |
| Noah Gray | 6.75% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 14 | 21 | 9.64 | 5.81 | 4.38% |
| Chris Oladokun | 3 | 4 | 3.5 | 5.25 | 4.43% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 17.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.22 in those and 9.57 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 7 against SF — 22.3 PPR on 24 touches and a 8% target share, in a game that finished 28-18. His worst was Week 13 against LV at 3.5, on 11 touches, final score 19-17. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.8; in the 5 decided by more, 12.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 12.6 points per game. He scored 11.95, 8.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 2.8 expected, a gap of -2.8.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | LAC | 17-10 | 10.5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 69 | 0 | 10.7% | 45% |
| 5 | NO | 26-13 | 18.7 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 27 | 102 | 1 | 2.9% | 63% |
| 7 | SF | 28-18 | 22.3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 78 | 2 | 8% | 64% |
| 8 | LV | 27-20 | 13.3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 59 | 1 | 2.9% | 58% |
| 9 | TB | 30-24 | 18.7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 106 | 1 | 2.4% | 58% |
| 10 | DEN | 16-14 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 65 | 14 | 35 | 0 | 25% | 65% |
| 11 | BUF | 21-30 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 60 | 0 | 0% | 69% |
| 12 | CAR | 30-27 | 11.7 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 68 | 0 | 11.1% | 55% |
| 13 | LV | 19-17 | 3.5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 8.9% | 38% |
| 14 | LAC | 19-17 | 3.9 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 2.8% | 29% |
| 15 | CLE | 21-7 | 5.9 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 45 | 0 | 5.3% | 37% |
| 16 | HOU | 27-19 | 15.9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 11 | 55 | 1 | 7.3% | 43% |
| 17 | PIT | 29-10 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 48% |
| Receptions | 23 |
| Targets | 32 |
| Receiving yards | 176 |
| Carries | 200 |
| Rushing yards | 728 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 11.95 |
| Yards per target | 5.5 |
| Catch rate | 71.88% |
| Yards per carry | 3.64 |
| Snap share | 51.69% |
| Target share | 6.72% |
| Air-yards share | -1.76% |
| WOPR | 0.088 |
| RACR | 1.394 |
| Average depth of target | -1.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.7 |
| Total YAC | 216 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 84.9 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.23 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.17 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.6% |
| End-zone target share | 2.9% |
| Red-zone carry share | 50% |
| Goal-line carry share | 58.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.8 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.8 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 9.44 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 26 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 28 of 46 |
| Target share | 33 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 35 of 46 |
The offense threw it 600 times. He took 5.62% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 23.37% |
| Xavier Worthy | 17.22% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10.37% |
| Noah Gray | 8.61% |
| Samaje Perine | 6.15% |
| Kareem Hunt ← | 5.62% |
1 of his 13 games were blowouts, 5.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8 in those and 11.81 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 6 against SF — 16.1 PPR on 15 touches and a 9.1% target share, in a game that finished 19-17. His worst was Week 4 against BAL at 1.2, on 5 touches, final score 3-28. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.5; in the 8 decided by more, 5.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.8 points per game. He scored 7.9, 10.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | TEN | 27-3 | 5.5 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 9.7% | 20% |
| 4 | BAL | 3-28 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 22% |
| 6 | SF | 19-17 | 16.1 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 47 | 1 | 9.1% | 37% |
| 7 | IND | 39-38 | 15.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 31 | 2 | 2.9% | 25% |
| 8 | SEA | 20-24 | 13.7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 14 | 55 | 1 | 3.3% | 35% |
| 9 | ARI | 27-0 | 9.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 38 | 1 | 3.6% | 29% |
| 10 | BAL | 33-31 | 9.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 32 | 1 | 0% | 36% |
| 11 | PIT | 13-10 | 6.7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 36 | 0 | 7.3% | 44% |
| 12 | DEN | 12-29 | 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 26% |
| 13 | LA | 19-36 | 5.8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 0 | 2.4% | 35% |
| 14 | JAX | 31-27 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 1 | 2.3% | 37% |
| 15 | CHI | 20-17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 2.3% | 32% |
| 16 | HOU | 36-22 | 9.6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 9.3% | 38% |
| 17 | NYJ | 37-20 | 9.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 31 | 1 | 3.4% | 37% |
| 18 | CIN | 14-31 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 13% |
| Receptions | 15 |
| Targets | 21 |
| Receiving yards | 84 |
| Carries | 135 |
| Rushing yards | 411 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 7.9 |
| Yards per target | 4 |
| Catch rate | 71.43% |
| Yards per carry | 3.04 |
| Snap share | 31.07% |
| Target share | 3.97% |
| Air-yards share | -0.08% |
| WOPR | 0.06 |
| RACR | 0.333 |
| Average depth of target | -0.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.9 |
| Total YAC | 98 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 78.3 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.18 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.33 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 50.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 68.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.27 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.73 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 7.01 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 41 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 45 of 49 |
| Target share | 46 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 17 of 49 |
The offense threw it 624 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amari Cooper | 21.44% |
| David Njoku | 20.6% |
| Elijah Moore | 17.42% |
| Jerome Ford | 10.55% |
| Cedric Tillman | 7.37% |
| Jordan Akins | 3.85% |
He caught passes from 5 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 5 | 8 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 3.94% |
| Deshaun Watson | 3 | 4 | 8.17 | 5.5 | 4.43% |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 3 | 3 | 3.37 | 0.33 | 2.43% |
| P.J. Walker | 3 | 5 | 14.97 | 7.2 | 5.1% |
| Jeff Driskel | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 5 | 4% |
7 of his 15 games were blowouts, 29.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.01 in those and 10.54 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 1 against CAR — 23 PPR on 15 touches and a 13.3% target share, in a game that finished 26-24. His worst was Week 17 against WAS at 0.9, on 3 touches, final score 24-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.9; in the 9 decided by more, 5.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.4 points per game. He scored 7.46, 11.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 26-24 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 11 | 46 | 2 | 13.3% | 56% |
| 2 | NYJ | 30-31 | 9.4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 58 | 0 | 7.4% | 46% |
| 3 | PIT | 29-17 | 9.1 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 47 | 0 | 12.9% | 44% |
| 4 | ATL | 20-23 | 8.8 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 49 | 0 | 8.6% | 49% |
| 5 | LAC | 28-30 | 14.7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 47 | 1 | 9.4% | 49% |
| 6 | NE | 15-38 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 2.4% | 43% |
| 7 | BAL | 20-23 | 7.8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8% | 47% |
| 8 | CIN | 32-13 | 11.2 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 11 | 42 | 0 | 20% | 46% |
| 10 | MIA | 17-39 | 2.9 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 2.9% | 36% |
| 11 | BUF | 23-31 | 7.4 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 5.1% | 43% |
| 12 | TB | 23-17 | 3.1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 5.6% | 41% |
| 13 | HOU | 27-14 | 9.4 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 14.3% | 38% |
| 14 | CIN | 10-23 | 3.2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 10.3% | 39% |
| 15 | BAL | 13-3 | 3.7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 3.8% | 26% |
| 16 | NO | 10-17 | 5.2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 11.1% | 47% |
| 17 | WAS | 24-10 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.3% | 32% |
| 18 | PIT | 14-28 | 5.8 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 14.8% | 25% |
| Receptions | 35 |
| Targets | 44 |
| Receiving yards | 210 |
| Carries | 123 |
| Rushing yards | 468 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 7.46 |
| Yards per target | 4.77 |
| Catch rate | 79.55% |
| Yards per carry | 3.8 |
| Snap share | 41.59% |
| Target share | 9.19% |
| Air-yards share | -0.27% |
| WOPR | 0.136 |
| RACR | 0.254 |
| Average depth of target | -0.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.9 |
| Total YAC | 243 |
| Broken tackles | 7 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 94.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.15 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.68 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.8% |
| End-zone target share | 3.1% |
| Red-zone carry share | 31.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 25% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.69 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.69 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.74 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 42 of 42 |
| Yards per target | 27 of 42 |
| Target share | 18 of 42 |
| Air-yards share | 26 of 42 |
The offense threw it 540 times. He took 8.7% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amari Cooper | 26.09% |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 18.97% |
| David Njoku | 15.81% |
| Kareem Hunt ← | 8.7% |
| Harrison Bryant | 8.3% |
| Nick Chubb | 7.31% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 11 | 28 | 8.96 | 5.54 | 8.69% |
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 16 | 4.7 | 3.44 | 10.1% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 12.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.1 in those and 9.93 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 3 against CHI — 27.5 PPR on 17 touches and a 24.1% target share, in a game that finished 26-6. His worst was Week 12 against BAL at 2, on 8 touches, final score 10-16. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.1; in the 3 decided by more, 14.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.3 points per game. He scored 13.75, 22.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 29-33 | 17.1 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 6 | 33 | 1 | 11.1% | 47% |
| 2 | HOU | 31-21 | 6.3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 51 | 0 | 4.8% | 38% |
| 3 | CHI | 26-6 | 27.5 | 6 | 7 | 74 | 10 | 81 | 1 | 24.1% | 41% |
| 4 | MIN | 14-7 | 16.6 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 69 | 1 | 12.9% | 53% |
| 5 | LAC | 42-47 | 25.9 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 12 | 61 | 2 | 20.7% | 44% |
| 6 | ARI | 14-37 | 10.8 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 66 | 0 | 9.7% | 69% |
| 12 | BAL | 10-16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 2.9% | 38% |
| 14 | BAL | 24-22 | 3.8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6.5% | 20% |
| Receptions | 22 |
| Targets | 27 |
| Receiving yards | 174 |
| Carries | 78 |
| Rushing yards | 386 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 13.75 |
| Yards per target | 6.44 |
| Catch rate | 81.48% |
| Yards per carry | 4.95 |
| Snap share | 43.75% |
| Target share | 11.59% |
| Air-yards share | 0.49% |
| WOPR | 0.176 |
| RACR | -3.066 |
| Average depth of target | 0.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.1 |
| Total YAC | 172 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 93.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.35 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.82 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.8% |
| End-zone target share | 4% |
| Red-zone carry share | 18.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 19% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.71 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.71 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.64 |
The offense threw it 520 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jarvis Landry | 17.65% |
| Austin Hooper | 12.37% |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 11.76% |
| David Njoku | 10.75% |
| Rashard Higgins | 9.53% |
| Odell Beckham | 6.9% |
2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 34.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.15 in those and 13.08 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 14 against BAL — 29 PPR on 13 touches and a 15.9% target share, in a game that finished 42-47. His worst was Week 17 against PIT at 5.1, on 11 touches, final score 24-22. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.6; in the 7 decided by more, 12.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12 points per game. He scored 13.66, 14.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 2.31 expected, a gap of 1.7.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 6-38 | 12.1 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 72 | 0 | 17.1% | 49% |
| 2 | CIN | 35-30 | 24.1 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 86 | 2 | 9.5% | 34% |
| 3 | WAS | 34-20 | 14.4 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 46 | 1 | 13.6% | 46% |
| 4 | DAL | 49-38 | 19.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 71 | 2 | 0% | 34% |
| 5 | IND | 32-23 | 18.3 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 72 | 1 | 10.5% | 70% |
| 6 | PIT | 7-38 | 7.7 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 40 | 0 | 11.5% | 53% |
| 7 | CIN | 37-34 | 19.2 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 76 | 1 | 14.3% | 90% |
| 8 | LV | 6-16 | 9.3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 66 | 0 | 12% | 86% |
| 10 | HOU | 10-7 | 16.2 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 104 | 0 | 21.1% | 58% |
| 11 | PHI | 22-17 | 9.1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 5.6% | 54% |
| 12 | JAX | 27-25 | 6.2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 62 | 0 | 7.4% | 42% |
| 13 | TEN | 41-35 | 8.7 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 14 | 33 | 0 | 9.4% | 48% |
| 14 | BAL | 42-47 | 29 | 6 | 7 | 77 | 6 | 33 | 2 | 15.9% | 46% |
| 15 | NYG | 20-6 | 5.8 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 10% | 33% |
| 16 | NYJ | 16-23 | 14.2 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 10% | 43% |
| 17 | PIT | 24-22 | 5.1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 37 | 0 | 3.8% | 56% |
| Receptions | 38 |
| Targets | 51 |
| Receiving yards | 304 |
| Carries | 198 |
| Rushing yards | 841 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 13.66 |
| Yards per target | 5.96 |
| Catch rate | 74.51% |
| Yards per carry | 4.25 |
| Snap share | 52.63% |
| Target share | 10.73% |
| Air-yards share | 1.62% |
| WOPR | 0.172 |
| RACR | 5.133 |
| Average depth of target | 1.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.6 |
| Total YAC | 280 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 121.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.64 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.3% |
| End-zone target share | 2.6% |
| Red-zone carry share | 48% |
| Goal-line carry share | 50% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.31 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.69 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 8.42 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 20 of 47 |
| Yards per target | 21 of 47 |
| Target share | 16 of 47 |
| Air-yards share | 6 of 47 |
The offense threw it 501 times. He took 11.09% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jarvis Landry | 21.96% |
| Austin Hooper | 15.22% |
| Rashard Higgins | 11.3% |
| Kareem Hunt ← | 11.09% |
| Odell Beckham | 9.35% |
| Harrison Bryant | 8.26% |
2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 9.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.9 in those and 14.64 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Kareem Hunt →