RB · ARI · GWTTKB

D'Ernest Johnson — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 0.5 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 295, usage worth 1.1.

29 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 295
Consensus across 2 books, standard deviation 176.8, 250 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on sleeper, priciest on espn.
SLEEPER420
ESPN170
FFA465

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 25, pick 7 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankRB143
ADP standard deviation176.8 picks

The offense he plays in, 2026

Arizona Cardinals returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, rb1, hc, oc. Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, Mike LaFleur as head coach, Nathaniel Hackett calling it. The offense projects to 31.9 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.

In: Carson Beck (qb), Carson Beck (qb2), Gardner Minshew II (qb2), Kendrick Bourne (wr3), Devin Duvernay (wr5), Reggie Virgil (wr6), Jeremiyah Love (rb1), Tyler Allgeier (rb2). Out: Kyler Murray (qb), Greg Dortch (wr3), Zay Jones (wr4), Jalen Brooks (wr6), Emari Demercado (rb2), Michael Carter (rb3).

The projected carry split across the offense:

Jeremiyah Love46.7%
Tyler Allgeier20.5%
James Conner20.1%
Trey Benson12.8%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: The Cardinals have interesting pieces on their offense but the offensive line and lack of a franchise QB is holding them back. IF Arizona can figure out the QB position, player value across the board SHOULD explode (Mcbride already ballin). Jeremiyah Love COULD have a slower start in 2026 but is a candidate to have a top 10 PPR fantasy season 100%.

Key additions: Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) RB drafted 1st round 3rd overall. drafted guard Chase Bisontis 2nd round (Texas A&M). Drafed Carson Beck QB Miami 3rd round. Drafted WR Reggie Virgil (Texas Tech) 5th round. Signed G Issac Seumalo to 3/$31M (starting O line). Signed Tyler Allgeier ATL RB to 2 year $12.25M deal. Signed Kendrick Bourne 2/$10M deal. Signed QB Gardner Minshew II 1/$8M. Signed Devin Duvernay WR on 1 year (kick returner most likely).

Key departures: Kyler Murray was cut & signed with Minnesota. WR3 Greg Dortch left to Detroit. RB4 Emari Demercado left in free agency.

Notes: Love arrives as 1.03 pick — immediate RB1 candidate. Mike LaFleur hired as new HC (Shanahan & McVay tree). OC is Nathaniel Hackett. Arizona signed Tyler Allgeier from Atlanta, will compete with James Conner for Backup. Expect Trey Benson COULD be traded or compete for backup. Cardinals drafted Carson Beck Round 3 of 2026 draft & MAY compete with Brissett who is looking for a new contract. Brissett likely week 1 starter. Michael Wilson MAY establish himself as a TRUE WR2 in 2026 (Trending in right direction). MHJ WR1 breakout candidate, but has yet to demonstrate consistency. If the O line does not improve, Jeremiyah Love will have a difficult rookie season similar to Ashton Jeanty in Las Vegas. Arizona will need better QB play for any players to have consistent weekly fantasy upside in 2026. It is possible Brissett can continue to support volume for McBride, but one of Michael Wilson or MHJ will have to benefit. Both cannot have high finishes most likely.

How the volume number was reached: New QB Jacoby Brissett, avg 28.8 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.9 att/g; New OC Nathaniel Hackett — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike LaFleur.

Offensive environment: ARI rates 19.1 against a league average of 23, 3.8 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-1.7 · harder
Weeks 1–6-4.5 · harder
Weeks 12–17+9.1 · easier
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+8.7 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +77.7% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, RBs crash the following year 59% of the time (hold 41%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 59% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Kenneth Gainwell20243.776%+98.5%
Cordarrelle Patterson20233.170%-9%
Jerick McKinnon2023766%-44.9%
Ty Johnson20233.663%+161.8%
Chase Edmonds20225.762%-27.4%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. From 0 to 883, peaking at 1,889.

The player

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game3.5
Week-to-week variation1.6
Boom rate7.8%
Bust rate49%
Games missed per season0

The record, season by season

2025 · ARI · 5 games

His best game was Week 18 against MIA — 1.3 PPR on 5 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 38-10. His worst was Week 7 against GB at 0, on 1 touches, final score 23-27. Across 5 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 1.1 points per game. He scored 0.5, 71.6% below it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
7GB23-2700001000%18%
10TB28-230.10001100%10%
11NYJ27-140.60003600%12%
17NYJ42-100.50004500%12%
18MIA38-101.300051300%15%

Production

Receptions0
Targets0
Receiving yards0
Carries14
Rushing yards25
Touchdowns0
Points per game0.5
Yards per carry1.79

Role

Snap share13.4%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%
WOPR0
RACR0

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-1.1

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share1%
Goal-line carry share3.6%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.39

Who else ate

The offense threw it 648 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Trey McBride27.39%
Michael Wilson20.42%
Marvin Harrison11.83%
Michael Carter7.29%
Elijah Higgins6%
Greg Dortch5.35%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 5 games were blowouts, 72% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0.9 in those and 0.05 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · JAX · 12 games

His best game was Week 7 against NE — 10 PPR on 13 touches and a 20% target share, in a game that finished 32-16. His worst was Week 4 against HOU at 0, on 2 touches, final score 20-24. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.3; in the 4 decided by more, 4.5. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4.2 points per game. He scored 2.99, 28.6% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
2CLE13-182.600052600%28%
3BUF10-471.201021202.3%17%
4HOU20-2400002000%21%
5IND37-3432391108.8%22%
6CHI16-356.4221662805.7%56%
7NE32-16103432938020%34%
8GB27-303.312201306.7%33%
9PHI23-280.60102603.3%24%
11DET6-520.30002300%27%
16LV14-191.81280005.7%19%
17TEN20-133.122110009.5%12%
18IND23-263.612022606.5%19%

Production

Receptions12
Targets19
Receiving yards96
Carries32
Rushing yards143
Touchdowns0
Points per game2.99
Yards per target5.05
Catch rate63.16%
Yards per carry4.47

Role

Snap share26%
Target share5.71%
Air-yards share-0.25%
WOPR0.082
RACR-0.682

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.4
Yards after catch per reception8.4
Yards before catch per reception-0.4
Total YAC101
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted53.8
Receiving EPA per game-1.06
Rushing EPA per game0.27

Scoring position

Red-zone targets3
Red-zone target share4.8%
End-zone target share2.9%
Red-zone carry share10%
Goal-line carry share4.5%
Expected receiving TDs0.6
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.6
Expected rushing TDs0.86

Who else ate

The offense threw it 546 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Brian Thomas25.48%
Evan Engram12.26%
Brenton Strange10.15%
Travis Etienne9.96%
Parker Washington9.77%
Christian Kirk9%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Trevor Lawrence8133.395.925.85%
Mac Jones462.23.175.42%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 12 games were blowouts, 22% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.63 in those and 2.25 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · JAX · 16 games

His best game was Week 12 against HOU — 7.1 PPR on 9 touches and a 5.4% target share, in a game that finished 24-21. His worst was Week 1 against IND at -0.4, on 1 touches, final score 31-21. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 16 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.7; in the 10 decided by more, 1.8. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.8 points per game. He scored 2.17, 17.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1IND31-21-0.40001-400%1%
2KC9-172.71191802.4%9%
3HOU17-373.22263605%16%
4ATL23-7-0.20001-200%2%
5BUF25-2000000000%1%
6IND37-201.900011900%3%
8PIT20-100.80002800%4%
10SF3-346222831206.5%21%
11TEN34-146.4113472003.2%24%
12HOU24-217.1124271905.4%40%
13CIN31-341.91155402.6%36%
14CLE27-314.8231631206.1%26%
15BAL7-230.50002500%29%
16TB12-300.20001200%26%
17CAR26-000003000%19%
18TEN20-28-0.10001-100%21%

Production

Receptions10
Targets12
Receiving yards140
Carries41
Rushing yards108
Touchdowns0
Points per game2.17
Yards per target11.67
Catch rate83.33%
Yards per carry2.63

Role

Snap share17.38%
Target share1.95%
Air-yards share0.17%
WOPR0.03
RACR0.231

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.8
Yards after catch per reception13.6
Yards before catch per reception0.4
Total YAC136
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted115.3
Receiving EPA per game0.61
Rushing EPA per game-0.83

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share7.2%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.45

Who else ate

The offense threw it 619 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Evan Engram23.56%
Calvin Ridley22.41%
Christian Kirk14%
Travis Etienne12.03%
Zay Jones10.54%
Jamal Agnew3.46%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Trevor Lawrence15122.3211.672.08%
C.J. Beathard1000%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 50.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.95 in those and 2.73 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · CLE · 9 games

His best game was Week 6 against NE — 2.9 PPR on 2 touches and a 4.8% target share, in a game that finished 15-38. His worst was Week 17 against WAS at 0, on 0 touches, final score 24-10. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 0; in the 5 decided by more, 1.1. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.3 points per game. He scored 0.6, 22.9% below it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
4ATL20-2300000000%1%
6NE15-382.92290004.8%13%
7BAL20-2300000000%0%
8CIN32-131.700041700%11%
10MIA17-390.811-20002.9%18%
11BUF23-3100000000%0%
15BAL13-300000000%5%
16NO10-1700000000%3%
17WAS24-1000000000%0%

Production

Receptions3
Targets3
Receiving yards7
Carries4
Rushing yards17
Touchdowns0
Points per game0.6
Yards per target2.33
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry4.25

Role

Snap share5.67%
Target share0.86%
Air-yards share-0.09%
WOPR0.012
RACR0.294

Efficiency

Average depth of target-0.3
Yards after catch per reception2.7
Yards before catch per reception-0.3
Total YAC8
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted79.2
Receiving EPA per game-0.11
Rushing EPA per game-0.01

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share1.3%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.06

Who else ate

The offense threw it 540 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Amari Cooper26.09%
Donovan Peoples-Jones18.97%
David Njoku15.81%
Kareem Hunt8.7%
Harrison Bryant8.3%
Nick Chubb7.31%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Jacoby Brissett630.92.331.28%
Deshaun Watson3000%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 9 games were blowouts, 100% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.8 in those and 0 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2021 · CLE · 13 games

His best game was Week 7 against DEN — 24.8 PPR on 24 touches and a 6.3% target share, in a game that finished 17-14. His worst was Week 4 against MIN at 0, on 0 touches, final score 14-7. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.3; in the 5 decided by more, 5.9. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 8.4 points per game. He scored 8.01, 3.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
3CHI26-60.90002900%6%
4MIN14-700000000%0%
6ARI14-371.91171203.2%20%
7DEN17-1424.822222214616.3%69%
8PIT10-159.913742219.7%31%
9CIN41-161.600081600%33%
10NE7-4522.778581999025.8%88%
11DET13-102.600052600%35%
14BAL24-223.911742203.2%22%
15LV14-165.544171-2013.8%32%
16GB22-247.612845805.6%38%
17PIT14-262.413151308.3%55%
18CIN21-1620.311102512314.2%71%

Production

Receptions19
Targets25
Receiving yards137
Carries100
Rushing yards534
Touchdowns3
Points per game8.01
Yards per target5.48
Catch rate76%
Yards per carry5.34

Role

Snap share38.46%
Target share6.16%
Air-yards share0.09%
WOPR0.093
RACR-0.515

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.2
Yards after catch per reception7.3
Yards before catch per reception-0.1
Total YAC138
Broken tackles4
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted88.2
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.05
Rushing EPA per game0.49

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.7%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share21.1%
Goal-line carry share9.5%
Expected receiving TDs0.14
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.14
Expected rushing TDs2.15

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game43 of 50
Yards per target33 of 50
Target share39 of 50
Air-yards share23 of 50

Who else ate

The offense threw it 520 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jarvis Landry17.65%
Austin Hooper12.37%
Donovan Peoples-Jones11.76%
David Njoku10.75%
Rashard Higgins9.53%
Odell Beckham6.9%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Baker Mayfield10185.354.895.58%
Case Keenum2322.5510.675.25%
Nick Mullens145.54.2513.8%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 26% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.78 in those and 9.33 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · CLE · 14 games

His best game was Week 4 against DAL — 9.5 PPR on 13 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 49-38. His worst was Week 17 against PIT at 0, on 0 touches, final score 24-22. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 0.3; in the 7 decided by more, 2.7. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.4 points per game. He scored 1.5, 23.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1BAL6-380.50001500%5%
3WAS34-2000000000%0%
4DAL49-389.5000139500%22%
5IND32-234.611483202.6%30%
6PIT7-380.10104103.8%30%
7CIN37-340.30001300%4%
8LV6-162.11152604%12%
11PHI22-1700000000%1%
12JAX27-2500000000%4%
13TEN41-351.51150003.1%3%
14BAL42-4700000000%0%
15NYG20-62.400042400%8%
16NYJ16-2300000000%0%
17PIT24-2200000000%0%

Production

Receptions3
Targets4
Receiving yards14
Carries33
Rushing yards166
Touchdowns0
Points per game1.5
Yards per target3.5
Catch rate75%
Yards per carry5.03

Role

Snap share8.5%
Target share0.96%
Air-yards share0.02%
WOPR0.015
RACR-0.024

Efficiency

Average depth of target0
Yards after catch per reception4
Yards before catch per reception0.7
Total YAC12
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0.3%
Passer rating when targeted79.2
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-0.07
Rushing EPA per game-0.15

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.3%
End-zone target share0%
Expected receiving TDs0.14
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.14
Expected rushing TDs0

Who else ate

The offense threw it 501 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jarvis Landry21.96%
Austin Hooper15.22%
Rashard Higgins11.3%
Kareem Hunt11.09%
Odell Beckham9.35%
Harrison Bryant8.26%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 14 games were blowouts, 2.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0.3 in those and 0.26 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

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