The volume held. The finishing did not. Whether 2025 was the player breaking or the situation breaking decides what he is worth at 110.5 overall.
Wan'Dale Robinson scored 217.9 fantasy points in 2025. The volume he earned was worth 239.1 — he finished 21.2 points BELOW what his own usage justified. That is a different problem from losing the job, and it is the single most important thing to understand before drafting him at 110.5 overall.
Rather than reading a season average, it is worth finding the point the season actually turned. Our shift detector flags in-season changes large enough to clear a statistical threshold, then asks what moved around them.
The largest single move was Week 4: snap share went up from 74.3 to 94.5, a 27.2% change, at 6.71 standard deviations. The cause was structural — the offence around him got sharply better. He also missed Weeks 14, 18.
Year over year the engine classifies 2025 as a breakout built on new volume. That is the label to carry into the projection, because it separates a player who lost snaps from one who kept them and converted worse.
He finished 13.62 points per game on 140 targets — a 26.7% jump on his 2024 rate with NYG. Every part of that is real and none of it is in dispute.
What is worth separating is how much of it he earned. Expected points strip out the finishing and ask a narrower question: given the targets he drew, where they came from on the field, and how far downfield they travelled, what was that usage worth? For 2025 the answer was 239.1 points — 14.9 per game. He scored 21.2 FEWER than that, a 8.9% shortfall.
The expected line underneath the season was 87 catches for 1102 yards and 7 touchdowns — and he came in under it.
The expected line was 87 catches for 1102 yards and 7 touchdowns. He finished with 92, 1014 and 4.
57% of the entire shortfall came from touchdowns alone. He hit 106% of his expected catches and 92% of his expected receiving yards — and 57% of his expected touchdowns.
That matters because touchdowns are the least repeatable part of a receiving line. Volume and yards reflect a role; touchdowns reflect a role plus a quarterback putting the ball where it can be caught in a nine-yard window. A player who holds his catches and yards while losing five touchdowns has not lost his job — he has lost the coin flips.
That distinction matters more than the raw finish. A player who loses his role posts a low score and a low expected score. Wan'Dale Robinson posted a low score on an expected total of 239.1 — 14.9 points a game of earned opportunity. The targets were still coming. What went wrong happened after the ball was in the air.
2 of his 16 games produced 25 or more points: Week 2 against DAL (28.2), Week 12 against DET (30.6). Strip them and the remaining 14 games average 11.4.
Spike weeks win fantasy games and a player who produces them is more valuable than one who never does — he is a ceiling play with real weeks off. 6 games came in under 10 points, including Week 3 against KC (3.6) and Week 4 against LAC (4.4).
The three largest overshoots — Week 2 (+11.1), Week 6 (+8.4), Week 12 (+6.7) — are the same games. The spikes were not extra volume. They were finishing.
Not one of his 4 seasons is flagged as running hot. 2 came in below what the usage justified: 2024 (-26.4%), 2025 (-8.9%). Across all 4 he has scored 88.8 points fewer than his usage was worth.
The reflexive read on a down year is decline. But the direction of the miss matters: finishing BELOW expectation is the more correctable of the two errors, because the hard part — earning the volume — is the part that held.
But an expected-points model has a specific blind spot, and it is worth naming: it converts usage at league-average rates. A target twenty yards downfield is worth what the average receiver does with a target twenty yards downfield. If a player is reliably better than average at winning a particular kind of target, he will beat the model every single year, and calling that luck is just mislabelling a skill.
So the question is not whether he missed the number. It is whether there is a mechanism.
Across 390 targets and four seasons, he has been a fundamentally different receiver depending on what the defence played. Against man he has caught 60% for 5.45 yards per target and 0.031 expected points added per target. Against zone: 74.5%, 6.89 yards, 0.102 EPA.
That is a gap of -0.071 EPA per target on a sample of 155 man targets against 235 zone. The catch rate goes the other way — he catches more against zone — which is exactly what you would expect from a receiver whose value is in winning contested downfield throws rather than in finding soft spots underneath.
The shell detail sharpens it. Cover 1, single-high man is the look he has faced most: 122 targets, 5.78 yards per target, 0.058 EPA. His best is Cover 3 at 0.254 on 98 targets.
The weakness is specific. Against Cover 0, all-out pressure with no safety help he has caught 41.2% for 3.12 yards a target and -0.206 EPA across 17 looks — a gap of 0.5 expected points a target between his best coverage and his worst.
This does not prove the overshoot repeats. It does mean the pattern has a stated cause rather than being a coin that keeps landing heads.
Across 66 graded prop lines, he has gone over 51.5% of the time. On receptions specifically the number is 56.3% across 32 lines, beating the posted number by an average of 16.6%.
That is close enough to a coin flip that the market has him fairly priced on his primary market. There is no edge to claim in either direction.
Touchdowns are the control. His anytime-TD market implied a 23.8% rate and he converted at 21.9% — a gap of -1.9 points, which is noise.
Tennessee returns 2 of 6 continuity slots — qb1, rb1 — with Cam Ward at quarterback, Robert Saleh as head coach and Brian Daboll calling it. The offence projects to 33.51 pass attempts a game at medium confidence.
The pie is stable. His slice is the question. Our share model has him at 15.5% against the 26.8% he ran, with a range of 10.8% to 20%.
That number is built from 29 comparable players — same age band, same prior share, same team, same coordinator — not from a depth chart. The closest three went Jarvis Landry 25% to 14%, Jakobi Meyers 24% to 20.6%, Robert Woods 22.5% to 15.9%. Two held, one fell hard.
Across 4,488 player-seasons we swept every stat for whether it predicts NEXT year's points, and kept only the ones that replicated in all five. target share (r 0.247), WOPR (r 0.218), air-yards share (r 0.142) carry. receiving EPA per game (r -0.127) and yards per target (r -0.114) and week-to-week volatility (r -0.075) run negative — a player who was hyper-efficient on low volume tends to come back down, so a gaudy per-touch number is a warning rather than a selling point.
So the figures worth weighing for him: a 30.3% target share, 28.5% of the air yards, a WOPR of 0.65, on the field for 90.8% of snaps. He averaged 4.02 yards of separation against 5.59 yards of cushion, and lost 0.28 yards after the catch above expectation. He finished 16 at the position — WR2.
Vegas sets an implied total for every team every week, and some offences beat theirs systematically. Over 103 games, TEN has come in -0.21 points against its own implied total, clearing it in 41% of weeks.
That is close to neutral — the offence performs about where the market expects, so there is no environment bonus or penalty to apply to him either way.
One related finding worth carrying: across 1,280 cases we measured what happens after a team's implied total slides, and the correlation is -0.37 — negative, meaning the market over-corrects. A falling team total is more often a buying window than a warning.
Our board has him at 154.1 points, 9.4 per game across 16.4 expected games — 63.2 catches, 699 yards, 3.5 touchdowns. That is WR5, 107 overall, and -3 points of value over a replacement starter.
It is a step down from 2025, and the reason is volume rather than efficiency. The projection assumes he keeps doing what he does on slightly fewer looks.
The books do not agree on him. Wan'Dale Robinson is a board split: CBS takes him ~91, Yahoo lets him slide to ~130 (39.4-pick gap). That 39.4-pick gap between CBS and Yahoo is the practical thing to act on: in a Yahoo-priced room he is available later than his consensus number suggests.
He goes at 110.5 overall on consensus, and the books are far apart — 39.4 picks between cheapest and priciest, which is a real value window. He is latest on yahoo and earliest on cbs: sleeper 103, espn 117.7, yahoo 130.4, underdog 112.3, cbs 91.
At 110.5 you are paying a WR2 price for a player whose median outcome is a WR2 season with five weeks that win you the game outright and four that lose it. The bust rate of 10% is real and so is the 70% boom rate.
The call: fair value, not a discount. The reason to take him is the ceiling and the betting record. The reason to pass is that you are buying a profile that has beaten its expected output four years running and only needs to stop once.
Ask the Coach about Wan'Dale Robinson Every number in this piece, plus your league's roster and scoring, in one answer.Expected points are computed from realised usage — targets, air yards and field position — against league-average conversion, not from projections. Prop records cover 66 graded lines. Projections are anchored to consensus with our engine applied as a capped tilt; the raw engine figure is stated where it differs. Nothing here is betting advice.