He has beaten his expected points in 4 of 6 seasons. Whether that is a skill or a countdown decides what he is worth at 103.6 overall.
Dallas Goedert scored 204.5 fantasy points in 2025. The volume he earned was worth 161.6. That gap of 42.9 points is the single most important thing to understand before drafting him at 103.6 overall.
Rather than reading a season average, it is worth finding the point the season actually turned. Our shift detector flags in-season changes large enough to clear a statistical threshold, then asks what moved around them.
The largest single move was Week 7: air-yards share went down from 22.1 to 11.8, a 46.7% change, at 2.02 standard deviations. The cause was structural — the play-calling changed. He also missed Weeks 2, 9, 18.
Year over year the engine classifies 2025 as a breakout built on new volume. That is the label to carry into the projection, because it separates a player who lost snaps from one who kept them and converted worse.
He finished 12.78 points per game on 89 targets — a 19.8% jump on his 2024 rate with PHI. Every part of that is real and none of it is in dispute.
What is worth separating is how much of it he earned. Expected points strip out the finishing and ask a narrower question: given the targets he drew, where they came from on the field, and how far downfield they traveled, what was that usage worth? For 2025 the answer was 161.6 points — 10.1 per game. He scored 42.9 more than that, a 26.5% overshoot.
The expected line underneath the season was 64.2 catches for 667 yards and 5.1 touchdowns, and he cleared it.
Against the expected line, he finished 64 catches, 624 receiving yards, 12 touchdowns — against 64.2, 667, 5.1 expected.
90% of the entire gain came from touchdowns alone. He hit 235% of his expected touchdowns, against 100% of his expected catches and 94% of his expected receiving yards.
2 of his 15 games produced 25 or more points: Week 6 against NYG (26), Week 15 against LV (25). Strip them and the remaining 13 games average 10.3.
Spike weeks win fantasy games and a player who produces them is more valuable than one who never does — he is a ceiling play with real weeks off. 6 games came in under 10 points, including Week 7 against MIN (4.8) and Week 10 against GB (8.3).
The three largest overshoots — Week 4 (+12.4), Week 8 (+12.4), Week 15 (+12.3) — are the same games. The spikes were not extra volume. They were finishing.
3 of his 6 seasons ran hot: 2021 (+17.3%), 2022 (+16.4%), 2024 (+17.3%). Across all 6 he has scored 112.5 points more than his usage was worth.
The reflexive read is regression. Finishing above expectation is unstable, and a player who does it repeatedly is usually one whose luck has not run out yet.
But an expected-points model has a specific blind spot, and it is worth naming: it converts usage at league-average rates. A target twenty yards downfield is worth what the average receiver does with a target twenty yards downfield. If a player is reliably better than average at winning a particular kind of target, he will beat the model every single year, and calling that luck is just mislabelling a skill.
So the question is not whether he beat the number. It is whether there is a mechanism.
Across 337 targets and four seasons, he has been a fundamentally different receiver depending on what the defense played. Against man he has caught 72.7% for 8.87 yards per target and 0.605 expected points added per target. Against zone: 78.2%, 7.95 yards, 0.307 EPA.
That is a gap of 0.299 EPA per target on a sample of 121 man targets against 216 zone. The catch rate goes the other way — he catches more against zone — which is exactly what you would expect from a receiver whose value is in winning contested downfield throws rather than in finding soft spots underneath.
The shell detail sharpens it. Cover 3 is the look he has faced most: 98 targets, 8.22 yards per target, 0.361 EPA. His best is 2-Man at 0.769 on 18 targets.
The weakness is specific. Against Cover 4 quarters he has caught 80% for 6.3 yards a target and 0.187 EPA across 40 looks — a gap of 0.6 expected points a target between his best coverage and his worst.
This does not prove the overshoot repeats. It does mean the pattern has a stated cause rather than being a coin that keeps landing heads.
Across 46 graded prop lines, he has gone over 39.1% of the time. On receiving yards specifically the number is 39.1% across 23 lines, missing the posted number by an average of 20.3%.
That cuts against him. A book that has him beaten 61% of the time on his primary market is not a market being slow — it is a market that has him priced correctly and a player who keeps falling short of it.
Touchdowns are the control. His anytime-TD market implied a 28.9% rate and he converted at 37.5% — a gap of 8.6 points, which is worth noting.
Philadelphia returns 4 of 6 continuity slots — qb1, rb1, te1, hc — with Jalen Hurts at quarterback, Nick Sirianni as head coach and Sean Mannion calling it. The offense projects to 31.02 pass attempts a game at medium confidence.
The pie is stable. His slice is the question. Our share model has him at 17.4% against the 20.5% he ran, with a range of 15.2% to 18.7%. The biggest competing claim on that pie is Devonta Smith at 17.8%, within 0.4 points of him — close enough that the split is genuinely open.
That number is built from 25 comparable players — same age band, same prior share, same team, same coordinator — not from a depth chart. The closest three went Cole Kmet 19.9% to 11.8%, Dalton Schultz 17.8% to 15.2%, David Njoku 21.8% to 12.5%. Every one of them lost share.
Across 4,488 player-seasons we swept every stat for whether it predicts NEXT year's points, and kept only the ones that replicated in all five. target share (r 0.247), WOPR (r 0.218), air-yards share (r 0.142) carry. receiving EPA per game (r -0.127) and yards per target (r -0.114) and week-to-week volatility (r -0.075) run negative — a player who was hyper-efficient on low volume tends to come back down, so a gaudy per-touch number is a warning rather than a selling point.
So the figures worth weighing for him: a 20.7% target share, 16% of the air yards, a WOPR of 0.42, an 84.6% snap share. He averaged 1.88 yards of separation, with +0.41 YAC over expected.
Vegas sets an implied total for every team every week, and some offenses beat theirs systematically. Over 111 games, PHI has come in +1.06 points against its own implied total, clearing it in 49% of weeks.
That is a real structural tailwind. Every skill player in this offense gets a small, repeatable bonus the market prices late.
One related finding worth carrying: across 1,280 cases we measured what happens after a team's implied total slides, and the correlation is -0.37 — negative, meaning the market over-corrects. A falling team total is more often a buying window than a warning.
Our board has him at 142.7 points, 9.4 per game across 15.2 expected games — 55.2 catches, 605 yards, 4.5 touchdowns. That is TE3, 106 overall, and -12 points of value over a replacement starter.
It is a step down from 2025, and the reason is volume rather than efficiency. The projection assumes he keeps doing what he does on slightly fewer looks.
an 11-touchdown season last year looks like an outlier next to his career-best prior mark of 5, but it wasn't lucky/random deep scoring — he was targeted more inside the 5-yard line than every other receiver on the roster COMBINED, a genuinely elite, real, designed red-zone role that existed even with a clear #1 alpha WR (AJ Brown) also on the roster. Brown is now gone, and his likely replacements (a journeyman veteran, rookies being brought along slowly) are unlikely to threaten Goedert's specific red-zone role the way Brown's departure might threaten other target shares.
The books do not agree on him. . That 31.6-pick gap between CBS and Underdog is the practical thing to act on: in a Underdog-priced room he is available later than his consensus number suggests.
He goes at 103.6 overall on consensus, and the books are far apart — 31.6 picks between cheapest and priciest, which is a real value window. He is latest on underdog and earliest on cbs: sleeper 119, espn 101.7, yahoo 106.3, underdog 134.7, cbs 87.4.
He goes at 103.6 and our board has him 106. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit here — the question is whether you want the TE3 profile, not whether it is mispriced.
The case for: an offense that beats its own implied total by 1.06 points a game.
The case against: 3 of 6 seasons flagged as running hot — not simply finishing above expectation, but far enough above it to classify, which is the pattern that regresses; 112.5 career points scored above expectation — real, and not something to underwrite twice; 3 games missed in the anchor season.
The call: fair value — draft him because you want this tight end, not because you are getting a deal.
Ask the Coach about Dallas Goedert Every number in this piece, plus your league's roster and scoring, in one answer.Expected points are computed from realized usage — targets, air yards and field position — against league-average conversion, not from projections. Prop records cover 46 graded lines. Projections are anchored to consensus with our engine applied as a capped tilt; the raw engine figure is stated where it differs. Nothing here is betting advice.