What the expected-points record, the coverage data and the market say he is worth at 104 overall.
Brock Purdy scored 266.86 fantasy points in 2024. The volume he earned was worth 254.9. That gap of 12 points is the single most important thing to understand before drafting him at 104 overall.
Rather than reading a season average, it is worth finding the point the season actually turned. Our shift detector flags in-season changes large enough to clear a statistical threshold, then asks what moved around them.
The largest single move was Week 15: rushing yards went up from 8.6 to 26, a 202.3% change, at 2.1 standard deviations. The cause was structural — the offense around him got sharply better.
Year over year the engine classifies 2024 as a breakout the box score hid. That is the label to carry into the projection, because it separates a player who lost snaps from one who kept them and converted worse.
2025 was cut short. He played 11 games at 18.14 points per game, too few to read a season from. Everything below is built on 2024, his last full year, with the missed time treated as the risk it is rather than as a new baseline.
He finished 17.79 points per game on 455 pass attempts — down 1.7% from his 2023 rate with SF. Every part of that is real and none of it is in dispute.
What is worth separating is how much of it he earned. Expected points strip out the finishing and ask a narrower question: given the throws he made, where they went and how far downfield they traveled, what was that usage worth? For 2024 the answer was 254.9 points — 17 per game. He scored 12 more than that, a 4.7% overshoot.
The expected line underneath the season was 3,268 passing yards and 20.8 passing touchdowns, plus 320 rushing yards and 3.1 rushing touchdowns, and he cleared it.
Against the expected line, he finished 2,569 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 208 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns — against 3,268, 20.8, 320, 3.1 expected.
63% of the entire gain came from passing yards alone. He hit 79% of his expected passing yards, against 106% of his expected passing touchdowns and 65% of his expected rushing yards and 97% of his expected rushing touchdowns.
3 of his 15 games produced 25 or more points: Week 3 against LA (25.78), Week 8 against DAL (26), Week 17 against DET (30.28). Strip them and the remaining 12 games average 15.4.
Spike weeks win fantasy games and a player who produces them is more valuable than one who never does — he is a ceiling play with real weeks off. 2 games came in under 10 points, including Week 13 against BUF (2.16) and Week 15 against LA (3.98).
The three largest overshoots — Week 17 (+12.3), Week 6 (+8.5), Week 8 (+8.2) — are the same games. The spikes were not extra volume. They were finishing.
1 of his 4 seasons ran hot: 2022 (+22.9%). Across all 4 he has scored 111.9 points more than his usage was worth.
The reflexive read is regression. Finishing above expectation is unstable, and a player who does it repeatedly is usually one whose luck has not run out yet.
But an expected-points model has a specific blind spot, and it is worth naming: it converts usage at league-average rates. A target twenty yards downfield is worth what the average receiver does with a target twenty yards downfield. If a player is reliably better than average at winning a particular kind of target, he will beat the model every single year, and calling that luck is just mislabelling a skill.
So the question is not whether he beat the number. It is whether there is a mechanism.
Across 64 graded prop lines, he has gone over 60.9% of the time. On passing yards specifically the number is 59.1% across 22 lines, beating the posted number by an average of 4.2%.
A projection model can be wrong about conversion. A book adjusting weekly, with money on the other side, being wrong 59% of the time on the same market is a harder thing to explain away.
Touchdowns are the control. His anytime-TD market implied a 16.5% rate and he converted at 22.7% — a gap of 6.3 points, which is worth noting.
Across 1,151 player-seasons we swept every stat for whether it predicts NEXT year's points, and kept only the ones that replicated in all five. team implied total (r 0.146) carry.
So the figures worth weighing for him: 342 pass attempts, 56.34 passing EPA, 7.5 air yards per attempt. He was pressured on 21.1% of dropbacks, and put 82.2% of throws on target. He carried it 47 times, taking 4.4% of his team’s goal-line carries — the only replicated floor factor at the position.
Vegas sets an implied total for every team every week, and some offenses beat theirs systematically. Over 112 games, SF has come in +0.57 points against its own implied total, clearing it in 48% of weeks.
That is close to neutral — the offense performs about where the market expects, so there is no environment bonus or penalty to apply to him either way.
One related finding worth carrying: across 1,280 cases we measured what happens after a team's implied total slides, and the correlation is -0.37 — negative, meaning the market over-corrects. A falling team total is more often a buying window than a warning.
Our board has him at 324.3 points, 19.3 per game across 16.8 expected games — 4,604 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 267 rushing yards, 2.9 rushing touchdowns. That is QB3, 101 overall, and 3 points of value over a replacement starter.
It is a step down from 2024, and the reason is volume rather than efficiency. The projection assumes he keeps doing what he does on slightly fewer looks.
consistently productive for three straight years but has also gotten hurt somewhat more than his mobility level alone would predict — read as bad luck, not a durability pattern tied to playing style, distinguished from a genuinely reckless, high-contact running QB. Adding a proven, high-red-zone-value receiver (Mike Evans) opens a real, provable path to more scoring efficiency without needing any change in overall passing volume.
The books do not agree on him. . That 15.1-pick gap between Yahoo and Sleeper is the practical thing to act on: in a Sleeper-priced room he is available later than his consensus number suggests.
He goes at 104 overall on consensus, and the books are far apart — 15.1 picks between cheapest and priciest, which is a real value window. He is latest on sleeper and earliest on yahoo: sleeper 113.1, espn 105.4, yahoo 98, underdog 102, cbs 99.5.
He goes at 104 and our board has him 101. That is 3 picks of discount on a QB3 projection — you are getting the QB3 outcome at a price the room has set below it.
The case for: a 35% boom rate.
The case against: 111.9 career points scored above expectation — real, and not something to underwrite twice.
The call: take him at his ADP and do not talk yourself out of it.
Ask the Coach about Brock Purdy Every number in this piece, plus your league's roster and scoring, in one answer.Expected points are computed from realized usage — targets, air yards and field position — against league-average conversion, not from projections. Prop records cover 64 graded lines. Projections are anchored to consensus with our engine applied as a capped tilt; the raw engine figure is stated where it differs. Nothing here is betting advice.